mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Reliable Trajectory Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification with Conditioned Diffusion Models

arXiv 2405.14384 ↗First posted 23 May 2024cs.LG cs.AIcited by 13

On the map: Diffusion models → Diffusion and flow policies for robotics

Abstract (arXiv)

This work introduces the conditioned Vehicle Motion Diffusion (cVMD) model, a novel network architecture for highway trajectory prediction using diffusion models. The proposed model ensures the drivability of the predicted trajectory by integrating non-holonomic motion constraints and physical constraints into the generative prediction module. Central to the architecture of cVMD is its capacity to perform uncertainty quantification, a feature that is crucial in safety-critical applications. By integrating the quantified uncertainty into the prediction process, the cVMD's trajectory prediction performance is improved considerably. The model's performance was evaluated using the publicly available highD dataset. Experiments show that the proposed architecture achieves competitive trajectory prediction accuracy compared to state-of-the-art models, while providing guaranteed drivable trajectories and uncertainty quantification.

Key facts. Cited by 13 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models. Builds on 31 of its 50 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 23 May 2024.

Builds on

31 of 50 references.

Closest ancestors · 2

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2023EquiDiff: A Conditional Equivariant Diffusion Model For Trajectory Prediction12 Aug
  2. 2022Guided Conditional Diffusion for Controllable Traffic Simulation31 Oct

Other references · 29

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 59,932
  2. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 20,851
  3. 2015U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentationcited by 19,604
  4. 2017Graph Attention Networkscited by 8,854
  5. 2022Hierarchical Text-Conditional Image Generation with CLIP Latentscited by 6,539
  6. 2022Photorealistic Text-to-Image Diffusion Models with Deep Language Understandingcited by 6,322
  7. 2022Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidancecited by 5,717
  8. 2017Neural Discrete Representation Learningcited by 4,650
  9. 2021Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 3,736
  10. 2014Empirical Evaluation of Gated Recurrent Neural Networks on Sequence Modelingcited by 2,341
  11. 2022Human Motion Diffusion Modelcited by 1,062
  12. 2022Diffusion-LM Improves Controllable Text Generationcited by 1,006
17 more
  1. 2021A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networkscited by 675
  2. 2020Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalizationcited by 480
  3. 2022DiffuSeq: Sequence to Sequence Text Generation with Diffusion Modelscited by 439
  4. 2018The highD Dataset: A Drone Dataset of Naturalistic Vehicle Trajectories on German Highways for Validation of Highly Automated Driving Systemscited by 276
  5. 2019Revisiting Graph Neural Networks: All We Have is Low-Pass Filterscited by 260
  6. 2018Convolutional Social Pooling for Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 221
  7. 2023MotionLM: Multi-Agent Motion Forecasting as Language Modelingcited by 154
  8. 2021Vehicle trajectory prediction works, but not everywherecited by 39
  9. 2021Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 36
  10. 2023Machine Learning for Autonomous Vehicle's Trajectory Prediction: A comprehensive survey, Challenges, and Future Research Directionscited by 23
  11. 2021Variational Autoencoder-Based Vehicle Trajectory Prediction with an Interpretable Latent Spacecited by 20
  12. 2021Graph and Recurrent Neural Network-based Vehicle Trajectory Prediction For Highway Drivingcited by 19
  13. 2019Uncertainty Quantification with Generative Modelscited by 17
  14. 2023Generating Driving Scenes with Diffusioncited by 16
  15. 2023A Multidimensional Graph Fourier Transformation Neural Network for Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 8
  16. 2023Prediction and Interpretation of Vehicle Trajectories in the Graph Spectral Domaincited by 4
  17. 2023Optimization and Interpretability of Graph Attention Networks for Small Sparse Graph Structures in Automotive Applicationscited by 3

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 2; 2025: 8; 2026: 3.

13 papers.

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  1. 2025Failure Prediction at Runtime for Generative Robot Policiescited by 36
  2. 2024Diffusion Model Guided Sampling with Pixel-Wise Aleatoric Uncertainty Estimationcited by 17
  3. 2024Building Real-time Awareness of Out-of-distribution in Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Vehiclescited by 3
  4. 2025Hybrid Machine Learning Model with a Constrained Action Space for Trajectory Predictioncited by 3
  5. 2025Trustworthy image-to-image translation: evaluating uncertainty calibration in unpaired training scenarioscited by 3
  6. 2025Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Machine Learning in Virtual Sensors for Vehicle Sideslip Angle Estimationcited by 3
  7. 2025Assessing the Completeness of Traffic Scenario Categories for Automated Highway Driving Functions via Cluster-based Analysiscited by 3
  8. 2025Using Ensemble Diffusion to Estimate Uncertainty for End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 2
  9. 2025Collision Risk Estimation via Loss Prediction in End-to-End Autonomous Drivingcited by 1
  10. 2025X-TRACK: Physics-Aware xLSTM for Realistic Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 1
  11. 2026Online Monitoring Framework for Automotive Time Series Data using JEPA Embeddingscited by 0
  12. 2026Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion Model for Multimodal Highway Trajectory Prediction via DDIM Samplingcited by 0
1 more
  1. 2026Behavior-Centric Extraction of Scenarios from Highway Traffic Data and their Domain-Knowledge-Guided Clustering using CVQ-VAEcited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2026Bridging Predictive Uncertainty and Safe Action: Sample-Conditioned Differentiable Planning for Autonomous Driving
  2. 2024Intention-aware Denoising Diffusion Model for Trajectory Prediction
  3. 2025Collaborative-Distilled Diffusion Models (CDDM) for Accelerated and Lightweight Trajectory Prediction
  4. 2024TrajDiffuse: A Conditional Diffusion Model for Environment-Aware Trajectory Prediction
  5. 2024FollowGen: A Scaled Noise Conditional Diffusion Model for Car-Following Trajectory Prediction
  6. 2025Risk-Informed Diffusion Transformer for Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction in the Crash Scenario
  7. 2024Controllable Diverse Sampling for Diffusion Based Motion Behavior Forecasting
  8. 2026PC-Diffuser: Path-Consistent Capsule CBF Safety Filtering for Diffusion-Based Trajectory Planner