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Online Bayesian Goal Inference for Boundedly-Rational Planning Agents

arXiv 2006.07532 ↗First posted 13 Jun 2020cs.AIcited by 67

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Abstract (arXiv)

People routinely infer the goals of others by observing their actions over time. Remarkably, we can do so even when those actions lead to failure, enabling us to assist others when we detect that they might not achieve their goals. How might we endow machines with similar capabilities? Here we present an architecture capable of inferring an agent's goals online from both optimal and non-optimal sequences of actions. Our architecture models agents as boundedly-rational planners that interleave search with execution by replanning, thereby accounting for sub-optimal behavior. These models are specified as probabilistic programs, allowing us to represent and perform efficient Bayesian inference over an agent's goals and internal planning processes. To perform such inference, we develop Sequential Inverse Plan Search (SIPS), a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that exploits the online replanning assumption of these models, limiting computation by incrementally extending inferred plans as new actions are observed. We present experiments showing that this modeling and inference architecture outperforms Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning baselines, accurately inferring goals from both optimal and non-optimal trajectories involving failure and back-tracking, while generalizing across domains with compositional structure and sparse rewards.

Key facts. Cited by 67 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 13 Jun 2020.

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Citing papers per year: 2021: 8; 2022: 6; 2023: 18; 2024: 14; 2025: 13; 2026: 8.

67 papers.

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  1. 2024Building Machines that Learn and Think with Peoplecited by 73
  2. 2023Language Models, Agent Models, and World Models: The LAW for Machine Reasoning and Planningcited by 59
  3. 2024MuMA-ToM: Multi-modal Multi-Agent Theory of Mindcited by 51
  4. 2022Predicate Invention for Bilevel Planningcited by 49
  5. 2024Beyond Preferences in AI Alignmentcited by 46
  6. 2023World Models and Predictive Coding for Cognitive and Developmental Robotics: Frontiers and Challengescited by 35
  7. 2024Pragmatic Instruction Following and Goal Assistance via Cooperative Language-Guided Inverse Planningcited by 28
  8. 2025Hypothesis-Driven Theory-of-Mind Reasoning for Large Language Modelscited by 28
  9. 2023NOPA: Neurally-guided Online Probabilistic Assistance for Building Socially Intelligent Home Assistantscited by 23
  10. 2023The Neuro-Symbolic Inverse Planning Engine (NIPE): Modeling Probabilistic Social Inferences from Linguistic Inputscited by 23
  11. 2025AutoToM: Scaling Model-based Mental Inference via Automated Agent Modelingcited by 23
  12. 2021Cognitive science as a source of forward and inverse models of human decisions for robotics and controlcited by 22
38 more
  1. 2021Modeling the Mistakes of Boundedly Rational Agents Within a Bayesian Theory of Mindcited by 19
  2. 2023HandMeThat: Human-Robot Communication in Physical and Social Environmentscited by 19
  3. 2023Inferring the Goals of Communicating Agents from Actions and Instructionscited by 17
  4. 2024GOMA: Proactive Embodied Cooperative Communication via Goal-Oriented Mental Alignmentcited by 16
  5. 2025Modeling Open-World Cognition as On-Demand Synthesis of Probabilistic Modelscited by 14
  6. 2021Inverse Contextual Bandits: Learning How Behavior Evolves over Timecited by 12
  7. 2021The Medkit-Learn(ing) Environment: Medical Decision Modelling through Simulationcited by 11
  8. 2023Inverse Decision Modeling: Learning Interpretable Representations of Behaviorcited by 10
  9. 2025EgoToM: Benchmarking Theory of Mind Reasoning from Egocentric Videoscited by 10
  10. 2022Solving the Baby Intuitions Benchmark with a Hierarchically Bayesian Theory of Mindcited by 9
  11. 2023A Review on Machine Theory of Mindcited by 9
  12. 2024Grounding Language about Belief in a Bayesian Theory-of-Mindcited by 8
  13. 2023Autonomous Capability Assessment of Sequential Decision-Making Systems in Stochastic Settings (Extended Version)cited by 6
  14. 2024Infinite Ends from Finite Samples: Open-Ended Goal Inference as Top-Down Bayesian Filtering of Bottom-Up Proposalscited by 6
  15. 2024Understanding Epistemic Language with a Language-augmented Bayesian Theory of Mindcited by 6
  16. 2024Pragmatic Embodied Spoken Instruction Following in Human-Robot Collaboration with Theory of Mindcited by 6
  17. 2025Modeling Others' Minds as Codecited by 6
  18. 2023Learning Rational Subgoals from Demonstrations and Instructionscited by 5
  19. 2023Acting as Inverse Inverse Planningcited by 5
  20. 2023Concept Alignment as a Prerequisite for Value Alignmentcited by 5
  21. 2021Inverse Optimal Control Adapted to the Noise Characteristics of the Human Sensorimotor Systemcited by 4
  22. 2023Inferring the Future by Imagining the Pastcited by 4
  23. 2024Few-Shot Task Learning through Inverse Generative Modelingcited by 4
  24. 2021Computing Policies That Account For The Effects Of Human Agent Uncertainty During Execution In Markov Decision Processescited by 3
  25. 2023Modeling Boundedly Rational Agents with Latent Inference Budgetscited by 3
  26. 2025Gricean Norms as a Basis for Effective Collaborationcited by 3
  27. 2026GRAIL: Goal Recognition Alignment through Imitation Learningcited by 3
  28. 2022Pragmatically Learning from Pedagogical Demonstrations in Multi-Goal Environmentscited by 2
  29. 2023Discovering User Types: Mapping User Traits by Task-Specific Behaviors in Reinforcement Learningcited by 2
  30. 2023Improved Inference of Human Intent by Combining Plan Recognition and Language Feedbackcited by 2
  31. 2024Reinforcement Learning Interventions on Boundedly Rational Human Agents in Frictionful Taskscited by 2
  32. 2024Human Goal Recognition as Bayesian Inference: Investigating the Impact of Actions, Timing, and Goal Solvabilitycited by 2
  33. 2022Modeling Human Behavior Part I -- Learning and Belief Approachescited by 1
  34. 2022Using Features at Multiple Temporal and Spatial Resolutions to Predict Human Behavior in Real Timecited by 1
  35. 2023Utility-based Adaptive Teaching Strategies using Bayesian Theory of Mindcited by 1
  36. 2025Integrating Machine Learning into Belief-Desire-Intention Agents: Current Advances and Open Challengescited by 1
  37. 2026Grounding Social Perception in Intuitive Physicscited by 1
  38. 2021SELM: Software Engineering of Machine Learning Modelscited by 0

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  4. 2018Where Do You Think You're Going?: Inferring Beliefs about Dynamics from Behavior
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  6. 2026Knowing When to Ask for Help: Bayesian Self-Escalation in Hierarchical LLM Agents
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