mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

E-valuator: Reliable Agent Verifiers with Sequential Hypothesis Testing

arXiv 2512.03109 ↗First posted 2 Dec 2025cs.LG cs.AI stat.APcited by 17

On the map: LLM reasoning → Reasoning for agents, planning and code

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Abstract (arXiv)

Agentic AI systems execute a sequence of actions, such as reasoning steps or tool calls, in response to a user prompt. To evaluate the success of their trajectories, researchers have developed verifiers, such as LLM judges and process-reward models, to score the quality of each action in an agent's trajectory. Although these heuristic scores can be informative, there are no guarantees of correctness when used to decide whether an agent will yield a successful output. Here, we introduce e-valuator, a method to convert any black-box verifier score into a decision rule with provable control of false alarm rates. We frame the problem of distinguishing successful trajectories (that is, a sequence of actions that will lead to a correct response to the user's prompt) and unsuccessful trajectories as a sequential hypothesis testing problem. E-valuator builds on tools from e-processes to develop a sequential hypothesis test that remains statistically valid at every step of an agent's trajectory, enabling online monitoring of agents over arbitrarily long sequences of actions. Empirically, we demonstrate that e-valuator provides greater statistical power and better false alarm rate control than other strategies across six datasets and three agents. We additionally show that e-valuator can be used for to quickly terminate problematic trajectories and save tokens. Together, e-valuator provides a lightweight, model-agnostic framework that converts verifier heuristics into decisions rules with statistical guarantees, enabling the deployment of more reliable agentic systems.

Key facts. Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 53 of its 86 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2025.

Builds on

53 of 86 references.

Closest ancestors · 1

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025OctoTools: An Agentic Framework with Extensible Tools for Complex Reasoning16 Feb

Other references · 52

  1. 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 10,109
  2. 2021Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Datasetcited by 5,371
  3. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,960
  4. 2023Let's Verify Step by Stepcited by 3,789
  5. 2018HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answeringcited by 3,754
  6. 2024MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmarkcited by 1,848
  7. 2020What Disease does this Patient Have? A Large-scale Open Domain Question Answering Dataset from Medical Examscited by 1,356
  8. 2023Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotationscited by 928
  9. 2022Solving math word problems with process- and outcome-based feedbackcited by 901
  10. 2024From Generation to Judgment: Opportunities and Challenges of LLM-as-a-judgecited by 494
  11. 2025Accelerating scientific discovery with Co-Scientistcited by 401
  12. 2022Selection-Inference: Exploiting Large Language Models for Interpretable Logical Reasoningcited by 334
38 more
  1. 2024ProcessBench: Identifying Process Errors in Mathematical Reasoningcited by 292
  2. 2021Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Controlcited by 271
  3. 2016Revisiting Classifier Two-Sample Testscited by 268
  4. 2024LLMs instead of Human Judges? A Large Scale Empirical Study across 20 NLP Evaluation Taskscited by 243
  5. 2023Conformal Language Modelingcited by 170
  6. 2022Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inferencecited by 155
  7. 2021Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-valuescited by 134
  8. 2024Language Models with Conformal Factuality Guaranteescited by 131
  9. 2024Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 126
  10. 2025Process Reward Models That Thinkcited by 118
  11. 2025AgentRewardBench: Evaluating Automatic Evaluations of Web Agent Trajectoriescited by 108
  12. 2019Safe Testingcited by 101
  13. 2024Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methodscited by 92
  14. 2024Process Reward Model with Q-Value Rankingscited by 80
  15. 2024Hypothesis testing with e-valuescited by 74
  16. 2024CRISPR-GPT for Agentic Automation of Gene-editing Experimentscited by 58
  17. 2019Universal Inferencecited by 44
  18. 2025Automated Hypothesis Validation with Agentic Sequential Falsificationscited by 44
  19. 2021Tracking the risk of a deployed model and detecting harmful distribution shiftscited by 40
  20. 2022Anytime-valid off-policy inference for contextual banditscited by 37
  21. 2021Retrain or not retrain: Conformal test martingales for change-point detectioncited by 32
  22. 2022E-detectors: a nonparametric framework for sequential change detectioncited by 32
  23. 2020Can I Trust My Fairness Metric? Assessing Fairness with Unlabeled Data and Bayesian Inferencecited by 31
  24. 2024Aviary: training language agents on challenging scientific taskscited by 26
  25. 2023Auditing Fairness by Bettingcited by 25
  26. 2016Online Rules for Control of False Discovery Rate and False Discovery Exceedancecited by 21
  27. 2025Thought calibration: Efficient and confident test-time scalingcited by 21
  28. 2025Know What You Don't Know: Uncertainty Calibration of Process Reward Modelscited by 21
  29. 2025WATCH: Adaptive Monitoring for AI Deployments via Weighted-Conformal Martingalescited by 16
  30. 2023Randomized and Exchangeable Improvements of Markov's, Chebyshev's and Chernoff's Inequalitiescited by 15
  31. 2025Probabilistic Soundness Guarantees in LLM Reasoning Chainscited by 13
  32. 2019ADDIS: an adaptive discarding algorithm for online FDR control with conservative nullscited by 11
  33. 2024Online Detection of LLM-Generated Texts via Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Bettingcited by 11
  34. 2025Monitoring Risks in Test-Time Adaptationcited by 11
  35. 2024Sequential Harmful Shift Detection Without Labelscited by 10
  36. 2025On Continuous Monitoring of Risk Violations under Unknown Shiftcited by 10
  37. 2025Offline changepoint localization using a matrix of conformal p-valuescited by 8
  38. 2025Evaluating multiple models using labeled and unlabeled datacited by 4

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