E-valuator: Reliable Agent Verifiers with Sequential Hypothesis Testing
On the map: LLM reasoning → Reasoning for agents, planning and code
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Abstract (arXiv)
Agentic AI systems execute a sequence of actions, such as reasoning steps or tool calls, in response to a user prompt. To evaluate the success of their trajectories, researchers have developed verifiers, such as LLM judges and process-reward models, to score the quality of each action in an agent's trajectory. Although these heuristic scores can be informative, there are no guarantees of correctness when used to decide whether an agent will yield a successful output. Here, we introduce e-valuator, a method to convert any black-box verifier score into a decision rule with provable control of false alarm rates. We frame the problem of distinguishing successful trajectories (that is, a sequence of actions that will lead to a correct response to the user's prompt) and unsuccessful trajectories as a sequential hypothesis testing problem. E-valuator builds on tools from e-processes to develop a sequential hypothesis test that remains statistically valid at every step of an agent's trajectory, enabling online monitoring of agents over arbitrarily long sequences of actions. Empirically, we demonstrate that e-valuator provides greater statistical power and better false alarm rate control than other strategies across six datasets and three agents. We additionally show that e-valuator can be used for to quickly terminate problematic trajectories and save tokens. Together, e-valuator provides a lightweight, model-agnostic framework that converts verifier heuristics into decisions rules with statistical guarantees, enabling the deployment of more reliable agentic systems.
Key facts. Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 53 of its 86 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2025.
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Other references · 52
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- 2025Accelerating scientific discovery with Co-Scientistcited by 401
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- 2021Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Controlcited by 271
- 2016Revisiting Classifier Two-Sample Testscited by 268
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- 2023Conformal Language Modelingcited by 170
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- 2019Safe Testingcited by 101
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- 2024CRISPR-GPT for Agentic Automation of Gene-editing Experimentscited by 58
- 2019Universal Inferencecited by 44
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- 2020Can I Trust My Fairness Metric? Assessing Fairness with Unlabeled Data and Bayesian Inferencecited by 31
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- 2023Auditing Fairness by Bettingcited by 25
- 2016Online Rules for Control of False Discovery Rate and False Discovery Exceedancecited by 21
- 2025Thought calibration: Efficient and confident test-time scalingcited by 21
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- 2025WATCH: Adaptive Monitoring for AI Deployments via Weighted-Conformal Martingalescited by 16
- 2023Randomized and Exchangeable Improvements of Markov's, Chebyshev's and Chernoff's Inequalitiescited by 15
- 2025Probabilistic Soundness Guarantees in LLM Reasoning Chainscited by 13
- 2019ADDIS: an adaptive discarding algorithm for online FDR control with conservative nullscited by 11
- 2024Online Detection of LLM-Generated Texts via Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Bettingcited by 11
- 2025Monitoring Risks in Test-Time Adaptationcited by 11
- 2024Sequential Harmful Shift Detection Without Labelscited by 10
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- 2025Offline changepoint localization using a matrix of conformal p-valuescited by 8
- 2025Evaluating multiple models using labeled and unlabeled datacited by 4
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 17.
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- 2026Human-LLM Deliberation as Interactive Proof: Conditions for Verifiability Without Transparency21 Sep 2026
- 2026Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents14 Jul 2026
- 2026Online Safety Monitoring for LLMs2 Jul 2026
- 2026Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Sampling2 Jun 2026
- 2026Selective Safety Steering via Value-Filtered Decoding14 May 2026
- 2026Consistency as a Testable Property: Statistical Methods to Evaluate AI Agent Reliability11 May 2026
- 2026Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees7 May 2026
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- 2026Online Reasoning Calibration: Test-Time Training Enables Generalizable Conformal LLM Reasoning1 Apr 2026
- 2026Incentive Aware AI Regulations: A Credal Characterisation5 Mar 2026
- 2026Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingales14 Feb 2026
- 2026Conformal Thinking: Risk Control for Reasoning on a Compute Budget3 Feb 2026
- 2026AJ-Bench: Benchmarking Agent-as-a-Judge for Environment-Aware Evaluationcited by 12
- 2026Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agentscited by 2
- 2026What Can Component-Replacement Evidence Establish? A Critical Scoping Review of Local Decisions in LLM Agentscited by 0
- 2026Valid Stopping in Adaptive Generator-Verifier Loopscited by 0
- 2026Valid Stopping in Adaptive Generator-Verifier Loops5 Oct 2026
- 2026What Can Component-Replacement Evidence Establish? A Critical Scoping Review of Local Decisions in LLM Agents30 Sep 2026
- 2026Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents14 Jul 2026
- 2026AJ-Bench: Benchmarking Agent-as-a-Judge for Environment-Aware Evaluation20 Apr 2026
- 2026Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingalescited by 4
- 2026Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guaranteescited by 3
- 2026Consistency as a Testable Property: Statistical Methods to Evaluate AI Agent Reliabilitycited by 3
- 2026Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Samplingcited by 1
- 2026Incentive Aware AI Regulations: A Credal Characterisationcited by 0
- 2026Selective Safety Steering via Value-Filtered Decodingcited by 0
- 2026Online Safety Monitoring for LLMscited by 0
- 2026Human-LLM Deliberation as Interactive Proof: Conditions for Verifiability Without Transparencycited by 0
- 2026Finding Blind Spots in AppWorld and WorkArena Task Verifierscited by 0
- 2026Learning to Detect Shifts in Unstructured Data Streams via Monitoring-by-Bettingcited by 0
- 2026Learning to Detect Shifts in Unstructured Data Streams via Monitoring-by-Betting12 Oct 2026
- 2026Finding Blind Spots in AppWorld and WorkArena Task Verifiers6 Oct 2026
- 2026Human-LLM Deliberation as Interactive Proof: Conditions for Verifiability Without Transparency21 Sep 2026
- 2026Online Safety Monitoring for LLMs2 Jul 2026
- 2026Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Sampling2 Jun 2026
- 2026Selective Safety Steering via Value-Filtered Decoding14 May 2026
- 2026Consistency as a Testable Property: Statistical Methods to Evaluate AI Agent Reliability11 May 2026
- 2026Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees7 May 2026
- 2026Incentive Aware AI Regulations: A Credal Characterisation5 Mar 2026
- 2026Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingales14 Feb 2026
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