Hypothesis testing with e-values
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Abstract (arXiv)
This book is written to offer a humble, but unified, treatment of e-values in hypothesis testing. It is organized into three parts: Fundamental Concepts, Core Ideas, and Advanced Topics. The first part includes four chapters that introduce the basic concepts. The second part includes five chapters of core ideas such as universal inference, log-optimality, e-processes, operations on e-values, and e-values in multiple testing. The third part contains seven chapters of advanced topics. The book collates important results from a variety of modern papers on e-values and related concepts, and also contains many results not published elsewhere. It offers a coherent and comprehensive picture on a fast-growing research area, and is ready to use as the basis of a graduate course in statistics and related fields.
Key facts. Cited by 70 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 31 Oct 2024.
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 30; 2026: 40.
70 papers.
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- 2025E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Predictioncited by 23
- 2025Prediction-Powered E-Valuescited by 16
- 2025E-valuator: Reliable Agent Verifiers with Sequential Hypothesis Testingcited by 14
- 2025Backward Conformal Predictioncited by 13
- 2025Certified Self-Consistency: Statistical Guarantees and Test-Time Training for Reliable Reasoning in LLMscited by 12
- 2025Conformal Calibration: Ensuring the Reliability of Black-Box AI in Wireless Systemscited by 10
- 2025Adaptive Prediction-Powered AutoEval with Reliability and Efficiency Guaranteescited by 9
- 2025On Continuous Monitoring of Risk Violations under Unknown Shiftcited by 9
- 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 7
- 2025On Stopping Times of Power-one Sequential Tests: Tight Lower and Upper Boundscited by 5
- 2025Sequentially Auditing Differential Privacycited by 5
- 2025Theoretical guarantees for change localization using conformal p-valuescited by 5
38 more
- 2025Optimistic Interior Point Methods for Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Bettingcited by 4
- 2025Adaptive Coverage Policies in Conformal Predictioncited by 4
- 2025Auditing Pay-Per-Token in Large Language Modelscited by 4
- 2026Behavioral Fingerprints for LLM Endpoint Stability and Identitycited by 4
- 2025Ensuring Reliability via Hyperparameter Selection: Review and Advancescited by 3
- 2025Toward Universal Laws of Outlier Propagationcited by 3
- 2026Efficient Sequential Evaluation of Large Language Modelscited by 3
- 2025Universality of conformal prediction under the assumption of randomnesscited by 2
- 2025A Collectivist, Economic Perspective on AIcited by 2
- 2025Eventually LIL Regret: Almost Sure lnln T Regret for a sub-Gaussian Mixture on Unbounded Datacited by 2
- 2025Stopping Rules for Stochastic Gradient Descent via Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequencescited by 2
- 2026Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shiftscited by 2
- 2026Asymptotically optimal sequential change detection for bounded meanscited by 2
- 2026Towards E-Value Based Stopping Rules for Bayesian Deep Ensemblescited by 2
- 2026Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guaranteescited by 2
- 2025Randomness, exchangeability, and conformal predictioncited by 1
- 2025STaR-Bets: Sequential Target-Recalculating Bets for Tighter Confidence Intervalscited by 1
- 2025Extending Prediction-Powered Inference through Conformal Predictioncited by 1
- 2025Reliable Inference in Edge-Cloud Model Cascades via Conformal Alignmentcited by 1
- 2025E-Scores for (In)Correctness Assessment of Generative Model Outputscited by 1
- 2026Online monotone density estimation and log-optimal calibrationcited by 1
- 2026Online LLM watermark detection via e-processescited by 1
- 2026Global Sequential Testing for Multi-Stream Auditingcited by 1
- 2026Conformal e-prediction in the presence of confoundingcited by 1
- 2026Multi-Armed Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Bettingcited by 1
- 2026Optimal Rates for Differentially Private Hypothesis Testing with E-valuescited by 1
- 2026Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Samplingcited by 1
- 2025Hypothesis Testing in Imaging Inverse Problemscited by 0
- 2025Online Reliable Anomaly Detection via Neuromorphic Sensing and Communicationscited by 0
- 2025Assessing Extrapolation of Peaks Over Thresholds with Martingale Testingcited by 0
- 2025Optimal Anytime-Valid Tests for Composite Nullscited by 0
- 2026GAAVI: Global Asymptotic Anytime Valid Inference for the Conditional Mean Functioncited by 0
- 2026Online Selective Conformal Prediction with Asymmetric Rules: A Permutation Test Approachcited by 0
- 2026Detecting Object Tracking Failure via Sequential Hypothesis Testingcited by 0
- 2026Asymptotically Optimal Sequential Testing with Markovian Datacited by 0
- 2026Incentive Aware AI Regulations: A Credal Characterisationcited by 0
- 2026Data Fusion with Distributional Equivalence Test-then-poolcited by 0
- 2026Post-Selection Distributional Model Evaluationcited by 0
50 most cited of 70 All 70 (JSON)
- 2026Evidence-Gated Research: Statistically Controlled Model Adoption in Adaptive Search1 Oct 2026
- 2026Always-On Experimentation30 Sep 2026
- 2026Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Logging25 Sep 2026
- 2026Strategic Self-Consistency24 Sep 2026
- 2026Rolling Conformal Prediction in Sequential Model Training22 Sep 2026
- 2026Should I Use This Synthetic Dataset for Training? How to Test with Minimal Real Data28 Aug 2026
- 2026Efficient Online LLM Watermark Detection via Rao-Blackwellized E-Processes24 Jul 2026
- 2026Detect Early, Escalate Rarely: Anytime Detection of AI-Generated Video from the Compressed Bitstream21 Jul 2026
- 2026Efficient Sequential Evaluation of Large Language Models19 Jul 2026
- 2026Bet on Features: Anytime-Valid and Feature-Aware Auditing of Conditional Quantile Forecasters13 Jul 2026
- 2026Online Safety Monitoring for LLMs2 Jul 2026
- 2026Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting17 Jun 2026
38 more
- 2026Bentkus-type asymptotic e-values4 Jun 2026
- 2026Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Sampling2 Jun 2026
- 2026Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values2 Jun 2026
- 2026Correcting Split Selection in Online Decision Trees via Anytime-Valid Inference29 May 2026
- 2026Optimal Rates for Differentially Private Hypothesis Testing with E-values27 May 2026
- 2026Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictions27 May 2026
- 2026Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models18 May 2026
- 2026Optimal sequential tests yield log-optimal e-processes12 May 2026
- 2026Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Means8 May 2026
- 2026Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees7 May 2026
- 2026Cover meets Robbins while Betting on Bounded Data: ln n Regret and Almost Sure lnln n Regret22 Apr 2026
- 2026Towards E-Value Based Stopping Rules for Bayesian Deep Ensembles20 Apr 2026
- 2026Elements of Conformal Prediction25 Mar 2026
- 2026Post-Selection Distributional Model Evaluation24 Mar 2026
- 2026Behavioral Fingerprints for LLM Endpoint Stability and Identity19 Mar 2026
- 2026Multi-Armed Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Betting18 Mar 2026
- 2026Data Fusion with Distributional Equivalence Test-then-pool12 Mar 2026
- 2026Conformal e-prediction in the presence of confounding11 Mar 2026
- 2026Incentive Aware AI Regulations: A Credal Characterisation5 Mar 2026
- 2026Global Sequential Testing for Multi-Stream Auditing25 Feb 2026
- 2026Asymptotically Optimal Sequential Testing with Markovian Data19 Feb 2026
- 2026Online LLM watermark detection via e-processes15 Feb 2026
- 2026Detecting Object Tracking Failure via Sequential Hypothesis Testing13 Feb 2026
- 2026Online Selective Conformal Prediction with Asymmetric Rules: A Permutation Test Approach10 Feb 2026
- 2026Online monotone density estimation and log-optimal calibration9 Feb 2026
- 2026GAAVI: Global Asymptotic Anytime Valid Inference for the Conditional Mean Function8 Feb 2026
- 2026Asymptotically optimal sequential change detection for bounded means5 Feb 2026
- 2026Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shifts2 Feb 2026
- 2025Optimal Anytime-Valid Tests for Composite Nulls23 Dec 2025
- 2025Stopping Rules for Stochastic Gradient Descent via Anytime-Valid Confidence Sequences15 Dec 2025
- 2025Eventually LIL Regret: Almost Sure lnln T Regret for a sub-Gaussian Mixture on Unbounded Data13 Dec 2025
- 2025Assessing Extrapolation of Peaks Over Thresholds with Martingale Testing2 Dec 2025
- 2025E-valuator: Reliable Agent Verifiers with Sequential Hypothesis Testing2 Dec 2025
- 2025E-Scores for (In)Correctness Assessment of Generative Model Outputs29 Oct 2025
- 2025Reliable Inference in Edge-Cloud Model Cascades via Conformal Alignment20 Oct 2025
- 2025Certified Self-Consistency: Statistical Guarantees and Test-Time Training for Reliable Reasoning in LLMs20 Oct 2025
- 2025Extending Prediction-Powered Inference through Conformal Prediction17 Oct 2025
- 2025Online Reliable Anomaly Detection via Neuromorphic Sensing and Communications16 Oct 2025
50 newest of 70 All 70 (JSON)
- 2025E-valuator: Reliable Agent Verifiers with Sequential Hypothesis Testingcited by 14
- 2025Certified Self-Consistency: Statistical Guarantees and Test-Time Training for Reliable Reasoning in LLMscited by 12
- 2026Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Modelscited by 0
- 2026Strategic Self-Consistencycited by 0
- 2026Strategic Self-Consistency24 Sep 2026
- 2026Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models18 May 2026
- 2025E-valuator: Reliable Agent Verifiers with Sequential Hypothesis Testing2 Dec 2025
- 2025Certified Self-Consistency: Statistical Guarantees and Test-Time Training for Reliable Reasoning in LLMs20 Oct 2025
- 2026Efficient Online LLM Watermark Detection via Rao-Blackwellized E-Processes24 Jul 2026
- 2026Online LLM watermark detection via e-processes15 Feb 2026
- 2025E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Predictioncited by 23
- 2025Prediction-Powered E-Valuescited by 16
- 2025Backward Conformal Predictioncited by 13
- 2025Conformal Calibration: Ensuring the Reliability of Black-Box AI in Wireless Systemscited by 10
- 2025Adaptive Prediction-Powered AutoEval with Reliability and Efficiency Guaranteescited by 9
- 2025On Continuous Monitoring of Risk Violations under Unknown Shiftcited by 9
- 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 7
- 2025On Stopping Times of Power-one Sequential Tests: Tight Lower and Upper Boundscited by 5
- 2025Sequentially Auditing Differential Privacycited by 5
- 2025Theoretical guarantees for change localization using conformal p-valuescited by 5
- 2025Optimistic Interior Point Methods for Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Bettingcited by 4
- 2025Adaptive Coverage Policies in Conformal Predictioncited by 4
12 most cited of 63 All 63 (JSON)
- 2026Evidence-Gated Research: Statistically Controlled Model Adoption in Adaptive Search1 Oct 2026
- 2026Always-On Experimentation30 Sep 2026
- 2026Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Logging25 Sep 2026
- 2026Rolling Conformal Prediction in Sequential Model Training22 Sep 2026
- 2026Detect Early, Escalate Rarely: Anytime Detection of AI-Generated Video from the Compressed Bitstream21 Jul 2026
- 2026Efficient Sequential Evaluation of Large Language Models19 Jul 2026
- 2026Bet on Features: Anytime-Valid and Feature-Aware Auditing of Conditional Quantile Forecasters13 Jul 2026
- 2026Online Safety Monitoring for LLMs2 Jul 2026
- 2026Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting17 Jun 2026
- 2026Bentkus-type asymptotic e-values4 Jun 2026
- 2026Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Sampling2 Jun 2026
- 2026Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values2 Jun 2026
12 newest of 63 All 63 (JSON)