mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Automated Hypothesis Validation with Agentic Sequential Falsifications

arXiv 2502.09858 ↗First posted 14 Feb 2025cs.LG cs.AI cs.CLcited by 44

On the map: LLM agents and tool use → Web, search, and research agents

Abstract (arXiv)

Hypotheses are central to information acquisition, decision-making, and discovery. However, many real-world hypotheses are abstract, high-level statements that are difficult to validate directly. This challenge is further intensified by the rise of hypothesis generation from Large Language Models (LLMs), which are prone to hallucination and produce hypotheses in volumes that make manual validation impractical. Here we propose Popper, an agentic framework for rigorous automated validation of free-form hypotheses. Guided by Karl Popper's principle of falsification, Popper validates a hypothesis using LLM agents that design and execute falsification experiments targeting its measurable implications. A novel sequential testing framework ensures strict Type-I error control while actively gathering evidence from diverse observations, whether drawn from existing data or newly conducted procedures. We demonstrate Popper on six domains including biology, economics, and sociology. Popper delivers robust error control, high power, and scalability. Furthermore, compared to human scientists, Popper achieved comparable performance in validating complex biological hypotheses while reducing time by 10 folds, providing a scalable, rigorous solution for hypothesis validation.

Key facts. Cited by 44 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Web, search, and research agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use. Builds on 30 of its 69 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 14 Feb 2025.

Builds on

30 of 69 references.

Closest ancestors · 5

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2024Can LLMs Generate Novel Research Ideas? A Large-Scale Human Study with 100+ NLP Researchers6 Sep
  2. 2024MLR-Copilot: Autonomous Machine Learning Research based on Large Language Models Agents26 Aug
  3. 2024BLADE: Benchmarking Language Model Agents for Data-Driven Science19 Aug
  4. 2024DiscoveryBench: Towards Data-Driven Discovery with Large Language Models1 Jul
  5. 2024MARG: Multi-Agent Review Generation for Scientific Papers8 Jan

Other references · 25

  1. 2024The AI Scientist: Towards Fully Automated Open-Ended Scientific Discoverycited by 1,071
  2. 2022Emergent Analogical Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 240
  3. 2024ResearchAgent: Iterative Research Idea Generation over Scientific Literature with Large Language Modelscited by 210
  4. 2023Can large language models provide useful feedback on research papers? A large-scale empirical analysiscited by 200
  5. 2023Large Language Models as General Pattern Machinescited by 197
  6. 2023SciMON: Scientific Inspiration Machines Optimized for Noveltycited by 179
  7. 2024SciCode: A Research Coding Benchmark Curated by Scientistscited by 178
  8. 2023Hypothesis Search: Inductive Reasoning with Language Modelscited by 120
  9. 2024Code Generation with AlphaCodium: From Prompt Engineering to Flow Engineeringcited by 103
  10. 2023The ConceptARC Benchmark: Evaluating Understanding and Generalization in the ARC Domaincited by 101
  11. 2023Large Language Models for Automated Open-domain Scientific Hypotheses Discoverycited by 100
  12. 2023Phenomenal Yet Puzzling: Testing Inductive Reasoning Capabilities of Language Models with Hypothesis Refinementcited by 89
13 more
  1. 2023LLMs and the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus: Successes, Failures, and the Importance of Object-based Representationscited by 82
  2. 2024Hypothesis Generation with Large Language Modelscited by 71
  3. 2023Are Large Language Models Really Good Logical Reasoners? A Comprehensive Evaluation and Beyondcited by 65
  4. 2023Large Language Models are In-Context Semantic Reasoners rather than Symbolic Reasonerscited by 63
  5. 2023Large Language Models Are Not Strong Abstract Reasonerscited by 53
  6. 2024Autonomous LLM-driven research from data to human-verifiable research paperscited by 53
  7. 2024LitSearch: A Retrieval Benchmark for Scientific Literature Searchcited by 50
  8. 2024CiteME: Can Language Models Accurately Cite Scientific Claims?cited by 48
  9. 2022Language Models as Inductive Reasonerscited by 32
  10. 2023Inductive reasoning in humans and large language modelscited by 24
  11. 2024ChatGPT as Research Scientist: Probing GPT's Capabilities as a Research Librarian, Research Ethicist, Data Generator and Data Predictorcited by 21
  12. 2024MASSW: A New Dataset and Benchmark Tasks for AI-Assisted Scientific Workflowscited by 19
  13. 2024CriticAL: Critic Automation with Language Modelscited by 5

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 16; 2026: 28.

44 papers.

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  1. 2025AgentRxiv: Towards Collaborative Autonomous Researchcited by 72
  2. 2025Robin: A multi-agent system for automating scientific discoverycited by 62
  3. 2025AutoDiscovery: Open-ended Scientific Discovery via Bayesian Surprisecited by 33
  4. 2025E-valuator: Reliable Agent Verifiers with Sequential Hypothesis Testingcited by 17
  5. 2026Agent-as-a-Judgecited by 17
  6. 2025The Automated LLM Speedrunning Benchmark: Reproducing NanoGPT Improvementscited by 15
  7. 2025CellForge: Agentic Design of Virtual Cell Modelscited by 13
  8. 2026HeurekaBench: A Benchmarking Framework for AI Co-scientistcited by 12
  9. 2026AJ-Bench: Benchmarking Agent-as-a-Judge for Environment-Aware Evaluationcited by 12
  10. 2025Autonomous Agents for Scientific Discovery: Orchestrating Scientists, Language, Code, and Physicscited by 11
  11. 2026Autonomous Research Agents: A Survey of AI Scientists and the Verification Gapcited by 9
  12. 2025From Hypothesis to Publication: A Comprehensive Survey of AI-Driven Research Support Systemscited by 8
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  2. 2026Many AI Analysts, One Dataset: Navigating the Agentic Data Science Multiversecited by 7
  3. 2026Model Discovery Agent: LLM-assisted Bayesian experiment design for data-efficient discovery of mechanistic world modelscited by 7
  4. 2025BioDisco: Multi-agent hypothesis generation with dual-mode evidence, iterative feedback and temporal evaluationcited by 5
  5. 2026AutoSci: A Memory-Centric Agentic System for the Full Scientific Research Lifecyclecited by 5
  6. 2025CGBench: Benchmarking Language Model Scientific Reasoning for Clinical Genetics Researchcited by 3
  7. 2026Accelerating Social Science Research via Agentic Hypothesization and Experimentationcited by 3
  8. 2026CausalEvolve: Towards Open-Ended Discovery with Causal Scratchpadcited by 3
  9. 2026Toward Auditable AI Scientists: A Hypothesis Evolution Protocol for LLM Agentscited by 3
  10. 2025Hypothesis Hunting with Evolving Networks of Autonomous Scientific Agentscited by 2
  11. 2026Selection Without Signal, Recovery Through Expression: A Measurement Study of Post-Hoc Falsification Operators for Frozen Small Code Modelscited by 2
  12. 2026Autonomous Scientific Discovery via Iterative Meta-Reflectioncited by 2
  13. 2026Beyond Solution-Centric Search: Adaptive Inquiry and Knowledge Revision for Autonomous ML Engineeringcited by 2
  14. 2026HypoForge: A Self-Improving Multi-Agent Framework for Automated Hypothesis Generation and Testing via Scientific Skill Learningcited by 2
  15. 2026EvoSCM: Scientific Belief Revision Through Causal Model Evolution and Experimentationcited by 2
  16. 2026HypoEvolve: Genetic Algorithms Enable Multi-Agent LLMs to Discover Scientific Hypothesescited by 2
  17. 2025Automating Exploratory Multiomics Research via Language Modelscited by 1
  18. 2025Why can't Epidemiology be automated (yet)?cited by 1
  19. 2026Programmatic Context Augmentation for LLM-based Symbolic Regressioncited by 1
  20. 2026AgentFold: Closed-Loop Agentic Search for Protein Folding Model Designcited by 1
  21. 2025From Explainable to Explained AI: Ideas for Falsifying and Quantifying Explanationscited by 0
  22. 2025When AI Does Science: Evaluating the Autonomous AI Scientist KOSMOS in Radiation Biologycited by 0
  23. 2026Sound Agentic Science Requires Adversarial Experimentscited by 0
  24. 2026Failures Reveal What Metrics Miss: An Evidence-Driven Agent for Recursive Refinement of ECG Classifierscited by 0
  25. 2026Pramana: A Composable, Domain-Specific Backend for Empirical Networking Researchcited by 0
  26. 2026QuantumMind: Constraint-Grounded Agentic Reasoning for Speedup Analysis in Quantum Computingcited by 0
  27. 2026OpenCodeReview: Determinism over Non-Determinism for Cost-Effective Agent-Based Code Reviewcited by 0
  28. 2026QuantForge: Discovering Residual Decompositions for MXFP4 Post-Training Quantizationcited by 0
  29. 2026ULTRADISCOVERY: Abductive Exploration in an Interconnected, Epistemically Open Universecited by 0
  30. 2026Training Numerical Intelligence via Auto-Diagnosis and Skill Discoverycited by 0
  31. 2026Learning to Outgrow a Theory: Experimental Discovery Beyond the Initial Hypothesis Spacecited by 0
  32. 2026LabCompiler: A Framework for Verifiable Human-Machine Laboratory Execution from Imperfect Protocolscited by 0

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  1. 2026FALSIFYBENCH: Evaluating Inductive Reasoning in LLMs with Rule Discovery Games
  2. 2026Fisher-R1: Training LLM Agents for Reliable Hypothesis Testing
  3. 2024ScienceAgentBench: Toward Rigorous Assessment of Language Agents for Data-Driven Scientific Discovery
  4. 2026Fail Loudly: An Auditable Runtime for Agentic Data Analysis
  5. 2025Can Language Models Falsify? Evaluating Algorithmic Reasoning with Counterexample Creation
  6. 2025Hypothesis Generation via LLM-Automated Language Bias for ILP
  7. 2026CausalSmith: A Formally Grounded, Self-Improving Agentic Framework for Automated Research in Causal Inference
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