mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction

arXiv 2210.10254 ↗First posted 19 Oct 2022cs.RO cs.SY eess.SYcited by 112

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Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a framework for planning in unknown dynamic environments with probabilistic safety guarantees using conformal prediction. Particularly, we design a model predictive controller (MPC) that uses i) trajectory predictions of the dynamic environment, and ii) prediction regions quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. To obtain prediction regions, we use conformal prediction, a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification, that requires availability of offline trajectory data - a reasonable assumption in many applications such as autonomous driving. The prediction regions are valid, i.e., they hold with a user-defined probability, so that the MPC is provably safe. We illustrate the results in the self-driving car simulator CARLA at a pedestrian-filled intersection. The strength of our approach is compatibility with state of the art trajectory predictors, e.g., RNNs and LSTMs, while making no assumptions on the underlying trajectory-generating distribution. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first results that provide valid safety guarantees in such a setting.

Key facts. Cited by 112 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 19 Oct 2022.

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Citing papers per year: 2022: 1; 2023: 16; 2024: 22; 2025: 33; 2026: 40.

112 papers.

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  1. 2023Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Plannerscited by 298
  2. 2024Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizescited by 53
  3. 2023Conformal Decision Theory: Safe Autonomous Decisions from Imperfect Predictionscited by 46
  4. 2024Length Optimization in Conformal Predictioncited by 39
  5. 2025Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Prediction: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification for Risk-Averse Agentscited by 37
  6. 2023Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series using Linear Complementarity Programmingcited by 33
  7. 2024Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspectivecited by 25
  8. 2024Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Predictioncited by 23
  9. 2023Forking Uncertainties: Reliable Prediction and Model Predictive Control with Sequence Models via Conformal Risk Controlcited by 19
  10. 2024Probabilistically Correct Language-based Multi-Robot Planning using Conformal Predictioncited by 18
  11. 2023Safe Perception-Based Control under Stochastic Sensor Uncertainty using Conformal Predictioncited by 15
  12. 2024How Generalizable Is My Behavior Cloning Policy? A Statistical Approach to Trustworthy Performance Evaluationcited by 14
38 more
  1. 2023On the Expected Size of Conformal Prediction Setscited by 13
  2. 2024Adaptive Learn-then-Test: Statistically Valid and Efficient Hyperparameter Selectioncited by 13
  3. 2022Targeted Adversarial Attacks against Neural Network Trajectory Predictorscited by 11
  4. 2023Physics Constrained Motion Prediction with Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 11
  5. 2024The Role of Predictive Uncertainty and Diversity in Embodied AI and Robot Learningcited by 11
  6. 2024Conformalized Interactive Imitation Learning: Handling Expert Shift and Intermittent Feedbackcited by 11
  7. 2025Conformal Prediction under Levy-Prokhorov Distribution Shifts: Robustness to Local and Global Perturbationscited by 11
  8. 2024Conformal Risk Minimization with Variance Reductioncited by 10
  9. 2025SICNav-Diffusion: Safe and Interactive Crowd Navigation with Diffusion Trajectory Predictionscited by 10
  10. 2025Conformal Calibration: Ensuring the Reliability of Black-Box AI in Wireless Systemscited by 10
  11. 2023Deception Game: Closing the Safety-Learning Loop in Interactive Robot Autonomycited by 9
  12. 2023Data-Driven Reachability Analysis of Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Conformal Inferencecited by 9
  13. 2025Probabilistic Stability Guarantees for Feature Attributionscited by 9
  14. 2025ConformalNL2LTL: Translating Natural Language Instructions into Temporal Logic Formulas with Conformal Correctness Guaranteescited by 9
  15. 2026Safety Beyond the Training Data: Robust Out-of-Distribution MPC via Conformalized System Level Synthesiscited by 7
  16. 2023Conformal Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processescited by 6
  17. 2023Max-Rank: Efficient Multiple Testing for Conformal Predictioncited by 6
  18. 2023PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Predictioncited by 6
  19. 2024Conformal Predictive Programming for Chance Constrained Optimizationcited by 6
  20. 2024Calibrating Bayesian Learning via Regularization, Confidence Minimization, and Selective Inferencecited by 6
  21. 2024Adapting Prediction Sets to Distribution Shifts Without Labelscited by 6
  22. 2025Mirror Online Conformal Prediction with Intermittent Feedbackcited by 6
  23. 2025Human-AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 6
  24. 2023Guaranteed Dynamic Scheduling of Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Traffic via Conformal Predictioncited by 5
  25. 2023Conformal Policy Learning for Sensorimotor Control Under Distribution Shiftscited by 5
  26. 2024Blending Data-Driven Priors in Dynamic Gamescited by 5
  27. 2024CUQDS: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification under Distribution Shift for Trajectory Predictioncited by 5
  28. 2025WQLCP: Weighted Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Robust Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shiftscited by 5
  29. 2025Towards Generalizable Safety in Crowd Navigation via Conformal Uncertainty Handlingcited by 5
  30. 2026Conformal Policy Controlcited by 5
  31. 2023Multi-Modal Conformal Prediction Regions with Simple Structures by Optimizing Convex Shape Templatescited by 4
  32. 2024Recursively Feasible Shrinking-Horizon MPC in Dynamic Environments with Conformal Prediction Guaranteescited by 4
  33. 2024Conformalized Teleoperation: Confidently Mapping Human Inputs to High-Dimensional Robot Actionscited by 4
  34. 2024CHAMP: Conformalized 3D Human Multi-Hypothesis Pose Estimatorscited by 4
  35. 2024Provably Reliable Conformal Prediction Sets in the Presence of Data Poisoningcited by 4
  36. 2025SafePath: Conformal Prediction for Safe LLM-Based Autonomous Navigationcited by 4
  37. 2025Conformal Prediction for Time-series Forecasting with Change Pointscited by 4
  38. 2025Statistically Assuring Safety of Control Systems using Ensembles of Safety Filters and Conformal Predictioncited by 4

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