mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Recursively Feasible Shrinking-Horizon MPC in Dynamic Environments with Conformal Prediction Guarantees

arXiv 2405.10875 ↗First posted 17 May 2024eess.SY cs.SY stat.MLcited by 4

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Abstract (arXiv)

In this paper, we focus on the problem of shrinking-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) in uncertain dynamic environments. We consider controlling a deterministic autonomous system that interacts with uncontrollable stochastic agents during its mission. Employing tools from conformal prediction, existing works derive high-confidence prediction regions for the unknown agent trajectories, and integrate these regions in the design of suitable safety constraints for MPC. Despite guaranteeing probabilistic safety of the closed-loop trajectories, these constraints do not ensure feasibility of the respective MPC schemes for the entire duration of the mission. We propose a shrinking-horizon MPC that guarantees recursive feasibility via a gradual relaxation of the safety constraints as new prediction regions become available online. This relaxation enforces the safety constraints to hold over the least restrictive prediction region from the set of all available prediction regions. In a comparative case study with the state of the art, we empirically show that our approach results in tighter prediction regions and verify recursive feasibility of our MPC scheme.

Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 16 of its 29 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 May 2024.

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16 of 29 references.

References · 16

  1. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 511
  2. 2020Human Trajectory Forecasting in Crowds: A Deep Learning Perspectivecited by 128
  3. 2022Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Predictioncited by 112
  4. 2017Recent Advances in Recurrent Neural Networkscited by 89
  5. 2022Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Motion Planning among Dynamic Agentscited by 46
  6. 2021Sample-Efficient Safety Assurances using Conformal Predictioncited by 41
  7. 2022Conformal Prediction for STL Runtime Verificationcited by 34
  8. 2018Probabilistically Safe Robot Planning with Confidence-Based Human Predictionscited by 27
  9. 2023Multi-Agent Reachability Calibration with Conformal Predictioncited by 23
  10. 2021Group-based Motion Prediction for Navigation in Crowded Environmentscited by 15
  11. 2020Reactive motion planning with probabilistic safety guaranteescited by 10
  12. 2020Statistical Verification of Autonomous Systems using Surrogate Models and Conformal Inferencecited by 8
4 more
  1. 2023Signal Temporal Logic Control Synthesis among Uncontrollable Dynamic Agents with Conformal Predictioncited by 7
  2. 2021Stochastic MPC with Multi-modal Predictions for Traffic Intersectionscited by 5
  3. 2022Moving Obstacle Avoidance: a Data-Driven Risk-Aware Approachcited by 5
  4. 2022A Gaussian Process Model for Opponent Prediction in Autonomous Racingcited by 5

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 2; 2026: 2.

4 papers.