Doubly robust off-policy evaluation with shrinkage
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Abstract (arXiv)
We propose a new framework for designing estimators for off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits. Our approach is based on the asymptotically optimal doubly robust estimator, but we shrink the importance weights to minimize a bound on the mean squared error, which results in a better bias-variance tradeoff in finite samples. We use this optimization-based framework to obtain three estimators: (a) a weight-clipping estimator, (b) a new weight-shrinkage estimator, and (c) the first shrinkage-based estimator for combinatorial action sets. Extensive experiments in both standard and combinatorial bandit benchmark problems show that our estimators are highly adaptive and typically outperform state-of-the-art methods.
Key facts. Cited by 87 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 22 Jul 2019.
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Citing papers per year: 2020: 1; 2021: 11; 2022: 13; 2023: 15; 2024: 18; 2025: 14; 2026: 15.
87 papers.
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- 2022A Review of Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learningcited by 92
- 2022Off-Policy Evaluation for Large Action Spaces via Embeddingscited by 53
- 2021Off-Policy Evaluation via Adaptive Weighting with Data from Contextual Banditscited by 40
- 2023Off-Policy Evaluation for Large Action Spaces via Conjunct Effect Modelingcited by 34
- 2021Evaluating the Robustness of Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 32
- 2022Minimax Regret Optimization for Robust Machine Learning under Distribution Shiftcited by 31
- 2022Doubly Robust Off-Policy Evaluation for Ranking Policies under the Cascade Behavior Modelcited by 30
- 2022Conformal Off-Policy Prediction in Contextual Banditscited by 25
- 2022Policy-Adaptive Estimator Selection for Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 24
- 2020Q* Approximation Schemes for Batch Reinforcement Learning: A Theoretical Comparisoncited by 22
- 2021Policy Learning with Adaptively Collected Datacited by 21
- 2024Off-Policy Evaluation of Slate Bandit Policies via Optimizing Abstractioncited by 17
38 more
- 2021Accelerating Offline Reinforcement Learning Application in Real-Time Bidding and Recommendation: Potential Use of Simulationcited by 16
- 2023Off-Policy Evaluation of Ranking Policies under Diverse User Behaviorcited by 16
- 2024Logarithmic Smoothing for Pessimistic Off-Policy Evaluation, Selection and Learningcited by 16
- 2022Safe Exploration for Efficient Policy Evaluation and Comparisoncited by 15
- 2023Exponential Smoothing for Off-Policy Learningcited by 15
- 2024Off-Dynamics Reinforcement Learning via Domain Adaptation and Reward Augmented Imitationcited by 15
- 2023Oracle-Efficient Pessimism: Offline Policy Optimization in Contextual Banditscited by 14
- 2023Off-Policy Evaluation for Large Action Spaces via Policy Convolutioncited by 14
- 2021Control Variates for Slate Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 13
- 2023On (Normalised) Discounted Cumulative Gain as an Off-Policy Evaluation Metric for Top-n Recommendationcited by 13
- 2024POTEC: Off-Policy Learning for Large Action Spaces via Two-Stage Policy Decompositioncited by 13
- 2024Optimal Baseline Corrections for Off-Policy Contextual Banditscited by 13
- 2023Ad-load Balancing via Off-policy Learning in a Content Marketplacecited by 11
- 2025Doubly Robust Alignment for Large Language Modelscited by 11
- 2023Marginal Density Ratio for Off-Policy Evaluation in Contextual Banditscited by 9
- 2024Long-term Off-Policy Evaluation and Learningcited by 9
- 2024Delta-rm OPE: Off-Policy Estimation with Pairs of Policiescited by 9
- 2024Effective Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning in Contextual Combinatorial Banditscited by 8
- 2021Optimal Model Averaging: Towards Personalized Collaborative Learningcited by 7
- 2022Off-Policy Risk Assessment in Markov Decision Processescited by 7
- 2023Learning Action Embeddings for Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 7
- 2024Bayesian Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for Large Action Spacescited by 5
- 2024Hyperparameter Optimization Can Even be Harmful in Off-Policy Learning and How to Deal with Itcited by 5
- 2021Doubly Robust Interval Estimation for Optimal Policy Evaluation in Online Learningcited by 4
- 2022Fast Offline Policy Optimization for Large Scale Recommendationcited by 4
- 2024Distributionally Robust Policy Evaluation under General Covariate Shift in Contextual Banditscited by 4
- 2021State Relevance for Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 3
- 2022Counterfactual Learning with General Data-generating Policiescited by 3
- 2023SPEED: Experimental Design for Policy Evaluation in Linear Heteroscedastic Banditscited by 3
- 2023Uncertainty-Aware Instance Reweighting for Off-Policy Learningcited by 3
- 2023Does Sparsity Help in Learning Misspecified Linear Bandits?cited by 3
- 2023When is Off-Policy Evaluation (Reward Modeling) Useful in Contextual Bandits? A Data-Centric Perspectivecited by 3
- 2024Online Policy Learning and Inference by Matrix Completioncited by 3
- 2024Cross-Validated Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 3
- 2024Unified PAC-Bayesian Study of Pessimism for Offline Policy Learning with Regularized Importance Samplingcited by 3
- 2024Off-policy estimation with adaptively collected data: the power of online learningcited by 3
- 2021Off-Policy Evaluation of Slate Policies under Bayes Riskcited by 2
- 2022On the Reuse Bias in Off-Policy Reinforcement Learningcited by 2
50 most cited of 87 All 87 (JSON)
- 2026Search Shapes Conclusions: Auditing Evidence Selection Bias in Deep Research Agents30 Sep 2026
- 2026Adaptive Doubly Robust Off-Policy Evaluation for Ranking Policies under Diverse User Behavior30 Aug 2026
- 2026Bellman Calibration for Marginalized Importance Weighting in Offline Reinforcement Learning25 Aug 2026
- 2026Fast A/B/n Testing: Exact Multi-Policy Comparison via Tree-Coupled Feedback Sharing13 Aug 2026
- 2026When Can You Trust Offline Evaluation of Equal-Cost Top-k Allocation? A Controlled, Reproducible Benchmark and Practitioner's Guide12 Aug 2026
- 2026Offline Policy Evaluation as a decision support tool for designing Adaptive Experiments10 Aug 2026
- 2026Cross-Domain Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for Contextual Bandits24 Jul 2026
- 2026A More Accurate Algorithm Comparison through A/B Testing using Offline Evaluation Methods2 Jul 2026
- 2026Privacy-Robust Incrementality Measurement for Advertising Systems under Signal Loss2 Jun 2026
- 2026Offline Contextual Bandits in the Presence of New Actions18 May 2026
- 2026Decision Support for Marketplace Policies under Incomplete Evidence: From Replay to Launch Readiness13 May 2026
- 2026CASP: Support-Aware Offline Policy Selection for Two-Stage Recommender Systems24 Apr 2026
38 more
- 2026Off-Policy Evaluation for Ranking Policies under Deterministic Logging Policies23 Mar 2026
- 2026Off-Policy Learning with Limited Supply19 Mar 2026
- 2026From Weighting to Modeling: A Nonparametric Estimator for Off-Policy Evaluation10 Mar 2026
- 2025Offline Contextual Bandit with Counterfactual Sample Identification3 Sep 2025
- 2025Off-Policy Learning in Large Action Spaces: Optimization Matters More Than Estimation3 Sep 2025
- 2025Context-Action Embedding Learning for Off-Policy Evaluation in Contextual Bandits31 Aug 2025
- 2025Meta Off-Policy Estimation11 Aug 2025
- 2025Harnessing the Power of Interleaving and Counterfactual Evaluation for Airbnb Search Ranking1 Aug 2025
- 2025Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for Matching Markets18 Jul 2025
- 2025A General Framework for Off-Policy Learning with Partially-Observed Reward17 Jun 2025
- 2025Exploiting Similarities in A/B Testing with Off-Policy Estimation12 Jun 2025
- 2025Sequential Off-Policy Learning with Logarithmic Smoothing12 Jun 2025
- 2025Doubly Robust Alignment for Large Language Models1 Jun 2025
- 2025Off-Policy Evaluation of Ranking Policies via Embedding-Space User Behavior Modeling31 May 2025
- 2025DOLCE: Decomposing Off-Policy Evaluation/Learning into Lagged and Current Effects2 May 2025
- 2025Counterfactual Inference under Thompson Sampling3 Apr 2025
- 2025Clustering Context in Off-Policy Evaluation28 Feb 2025
- 2024Off-policy estimation with adaptively collected data: the power of online learning19 Nov 2024
- 2024Off-Dynamics Reinforcement Learning via Domain Adaptation and Reward Augmented Imitation15 Nov 2024
- 2024Effective Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning in Contextual Combinatorial Bandits20 Aug 2024
- 2024Automated Off-Policy Estimator Selection via Supervised Learning26 Jun 2024
- 2024Unified PAC-Bayesian Study of Pessimism for Offline Policy Learning with Regularized Importance Sampling5 Jun 2024
- 2024SaVeR: Optimal Data Collection Strategy for Safe Policy Evaluation in Tabular MDP4 Jun 2024
- 2024Cross-Validated Off-Policy Evaluation24 May 2024
- 2024Logarithmic Smoothing for Pessimistic Off-Policy Evaluation, Selection and Learning23 May 2024
- 2024Delta-rm OPE: Off-Policy Estimation with Pairs of Policies16 May 2024
- 2024Optimal Baseline Corrections for Off-Policy Contextual Bandits9 May 2024
- 2024Online Policy Learning and Inference by Matrix Completion26 Apr 2024
- 2024Long-term Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning24 Apr 2024
- 2024Hyperparameter Optimization Can Even be Harmful in Off-Policy Learning and How to Deal with It23 Apr 2024
- 2024Doubly-Robust Off-Policy Evaluation with Estimated Logging Policy2 Apr 2024
- 2024Bayesian Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for Large Action Spaces22 Feb 2024
- 2024POTEC: Off-Policy Learning for Large Action Spaces via Two-Stage Policy Decomposition9 Feb 2024
- 2024Off-Policy Evaluation of Slate Bandit Policies via Optimizing Abstraction3 Feb 2024
- 2024Distributionally Robust Policy Evaluation under General Covariate Shift in Contextual Bandits21 Jan 2024
- 2023Marginal Density Ratio for Off-Policy Evaluation in Contextual Bandits3 Dec 2023
- 2023When is Off-Policy Evaluation (Reward Modeling) Useful in Contextual Bandits? A Data-Centric Perspective23 Nov 2023
- 2023Off-Policy Evaluation for Large Action Spaces via Policy Convolution24 Oct 2023
50 newest of 87 All 87 (JSON)
- 2020Q* Approximation Schemes for Batch Reinforcement Learning: A Theoretical Comparisoncited by 22
- 2021Accelerating Offline Reinforcement Learning Application in Real-Time Bidding and Recommendation: Potential Use of Simulationcited by 16
- 2024Off-Dynamics Reinforcement Learning via Domain Adaptation and Reward Augmented Imitationcited by 15
- 2023Oracle-Efficient Pessimism: Offline Policy Optimization in Contextual Banditscited by 14
- 2022Fast Offline Policy Optimization for Large Scale Recommendationcited by 4
- 2024Unified PAC-Bayesian Study of Pessimism for Offline Policy Learning with Regularized Importance Samplingcited by 3
- 2026Bellman Calibration for Marginalized Importance Weighting in Offline Reinforcement Learningcited by 0
- 2026Bellman Calibration for Marginalized Importance Weighting in Offline Reinforcement Learning25 Aug 2026
- 2024Off-Dynamics Reinforcement Learning via Domain Adaptation and Reward Augmented Imitation15 Nov 2024
- 2024Unified PAC-Bayesian Study of Pessimism for Offline Policy Learning with Regularized Importance Sampling5 Jun 2024
- 2023Oracle-Efficient Pessimism: Offline Policy Optimization in Contextual Bandits13 Jun 2023
- 2022Fast Offline Policy Optimization for Large Scale Recommendation8 Aug 2022
- 2021Accelerating Offline Reinforcement Learning Application in Real-Time Bidding and Recommendation: Potential Use of Simulation17 Sep 2021
- 2020Q* Approximation Schemes for Batch Reinforcement Learning: A Theoretical Comparison9 Mar 2020
- 2022A Review of Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learningcited by 92
- 2022Off-Policy Evaluation for Large Action Spaces via Embeddingscited by 53
- 2021Off-Policy Evaluation via Adaptive Weighting with Data from Contextual Banditscited by 40
- 2023Off-Policy Evaluation for Large Action Spaces via Conjunct Effect Modelingcited by 34
- 2021Evaluating the Robustness of Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 32
- 2022Minimax Regret Optimization for Robust Machine Learning under Distribution Shiftcited by 31
- 2022Doubly Robust Off-Policy Evaluation for Ranking Policies under the Cascade Behavior Modelcited by 30
- 2022Conformal Off-Policy Prediction in Contextual Banditscited by 25
- 2022Policy-Adaptive Estimator Selection for Off-Policy Evaluationcited by 24
- 2021Policy Learning with Adaptively Collected Datacited by 21
- 2024Off-Policy Evaluation of Slate Bandit Policies via Optimizing Abstractioncited by 17
- 2023Off-Policy Evaluation of Ranking Policies under Diverse User Behaviorcited by 16
12 most cited of 75 All 75 (JSON)
- 2026Adaptive Doubly Robust Off-Policy Evaluation for Ranking Policies under Diverse User Behavior30 Aug 2026
- 2026When Can You Trust Offline Evaluation of Equal-Cost Top-k Allocation? A Controlled, Reproducible Benchmark and Practitioner's Guide12 Aug 2026
- 2026Offline Policy Evaluation as a decision support tool for designing Adaptive Experiments10 Aug 2026
- 2026Cross-Domain Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for Contextual Bandits24 Jul 2026
- 2026A More Accurate Algorithm Comparison through A/B Testing using Offline Evaluation Methods2 Jul 2026
- 2026Privacy-Robust Incrementality Measurement for Advertising Systems under Signal Loss2 Jun 2026
- 2026Offline Contextual Bandits in the Presence of New Actions18 May 2026
- 2026Decision Support for Marketplace Policies under Incomplete Evidence: From Replay to Launch Readiness13 May 2026
- 2026CASP: Support-Aware Offline Policy Selection for Two-Stage Recommender Systems24 Apr 2026
- 2026Off-Policy Evaluation for Ranking Policies under Deterministic Logging Policies23 Mar 2026
- 2026Off-Policy Learning with Limited Supply19 Mar 2026
- 2026From Weighting to Modeling: A Nonparametric Estimator for Off-Policy Evaluation10 Mar 2026
12 newest of 75 All 75 (JSON)