Causal Machine Learning: A Survey and Open Problems
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Abstract (arXiv)
Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) is an umbrella term for machine learning methods that formalize the data-generation process as a structural causal model (SCM). This perspective enables us to reason about the effects of changes to this process (interventions) and what would have happened in hindsight (counterfactuals). We categorize work in CausalML into five groups according to the problems they address: (1) causal supervised learning, (2) causal generative modeling, (3) causal explanations, (4) causal fairness, and (5) causal reinforcement learning. We systematically compare the methods in each category and point out open problems. Further, we review data-modality-specific applications in computer vision, natural language processing, and graph representation learning. Finally, we provide an overview of causal benchmarks and a critical discussion of the state of this nascent field, including recommendations for future work.
Key facts. Cited by 107 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 30 Jun 2022.
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 11; 2023: 34; 2024: 33; 2025: 19; 2026: 10.
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- 2023Towards Automated Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretabilitycited by 700
- 2023Challenges and Applications of Large Language Modelscited by 251
- 2023Identifiability Guarantees for Causal Disentanglement from Soft Interventionscited by 84
- 2023The MiniPile Challenge for Data-Efficient Language Modelscited by 74
- 2024Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomescited by 73
- 2022Less Data, More Knowledge: Building Next Generation Semantic Communication Networkscited by 61
- 2022SADM: Sequence-Aware Diffusion Model for Longitudinal Medical Image Generationcited by 56
- 2022Stop Wasting My Time! Saving Days of ImageNet and BERT Training with Latest Weight Averagingcited by 54
- 2023A Survey on Causal Reinforcement Learningcited by 43
- 2023BayeSeg: Bayesian Modeling for Medical Image Segmentation with Interpretable Generalizabilitycited by 42
- 2023Spawrious: A Benchmark for Fine Control of Spurious Correlation Biasescited by 41
- 2023A Survey on Causal Discovery Methods for I.I.D. and Time Series Datacited by 35
38 more
- 2024Foundation Models for Music: A Surveycited by 34
- 2024Emergence of Hidden Capabilities: Exploring Learning Dynamics in Concept Spacecited by 33
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- 2024Causal Concept Graph Models: Beyond Causal Opacity in Deep Learningcited by 28
- 2024Efficient Automated Circuit Discovery in Transformers using Contextual Decompositioncited by 23
- 2023Counterfactual Learning on Graphs: A Surveycited by 22
- 2023Causal Reinforcement Learning: A Surveycited by 22
- 2024Benchmarking Counterfactual Image Generationcited by 22
- 2023From Identifiable Causal Representations to Controllable Counterfactual Generation: A Survey on Causal Generative Modelingcited by 21
- 2023Causal Deep Learningcited by 20
- 2023Automated Cyber Defence: A Reviewcited by 19
- 2025Causally Reliable Concept Bottleneck Modelscited by 17
- 2023Interpretation of Time-Series Deep Models: A Surveycited by 15
- 2023A Review of the Role of Causality in Developing Trustworthy AI Systemscited by 14
- 2023TTIDA: Controllable Generative Data Augmentation via Text-to-Text and Text-to-Image Modelscited by 14
- 2022Applications of statistical causal inference in software engineeringcited by 12
- 2023Causal reasoning in typical computer vision taskscited by 12
- 2022Generalization in Neural Networks: A Broad Surveycited by 11
- 2022Deep Causal Learning: Representation, Discovery and Inferencecited by 11
- 2024Do causal predictors generalize better to new domains?cited by 11
- 2022A Survey of Deep Causal Models and Their Industrial Applicationscited by 10
- 2022DeepMed: Semiparametric Causal Mediation Analysis with Debiased Deep Learningcited by 10
- 2023Emerging Synergies in Causality and Deep Generative Models: A Surveycited by 10
- 2023DAG Learning on the Permutahedroncited by 9
- 2026Dynamics Within Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Empirical Study of Causal Structurecited by 9
- 2024A Systematic Review of Generalization Research in Medical Image Classificationcited by 8
- 2024Learning Structural Causal Models through Deep Generative Models: Methods, Guarantees, and Challengescited by 8
- 2025Incentivizing Desirable Effort Profiles in Strategic Classification: The Role of Causality and Uncertaintycited by 8
- 2024Identifiability Guarantees for Causal Disentanglement from Purely Observational Datacited by 7
- 2023A Survey of Methods, Challenges and Perspectives in Causalitycited by 6
- 2023CFL: Causally Fair Language Models Through Token-level Attribute Controlled Generationcited by 6
- 2025Unveiling and Causalizing CoT: A Causal Pespectivecited by 6
- 2023Exploiting Causal Graph Priors with Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learningcited by 5
- 2024Focus On This, Not That! Steering LLMs with Adaptive Feature Specificationcited by 5
- 2025JAM: Controllable and Responsible Text Generation via Causal Reasoning and Latent Vector Manipulationcited by 5
- 2022Regulating Gatekeeper AI and Data: Transparency, Access, and Fairness under the DMA, the GDPR, and beyondcited by 4
- 2023Competence-Based Analysis of Language Modelscited by 4
- 2023Selecting Robust Features for Machine Learning Applications using Multidata Causal Discoverycited by 4
50 most cited of 107 All 107 (JSON)
- 2026MagicSelector: Joint Optimization for Agent Tool Selection via Counterfactual Decomposition and Progressive Reranking20 Jul 2026
- 2026Solution of the Hempel's statistical ambiguity problem and Causal AI14 Jul 2026
- 2026A Neuroimaging Simulation Framework for Developing and Evaluating Causal AI27 Jun 2026
- 2026A Step Towards Inherently Interpretable Causal Machine Learning Models For Decision Support23 Jun 2026
- 2026A Completion-Aware Framework for Impactful Counterfactual Explainability in Graph Neural Networks20 Jun 2026
- 2026Trustworthy AI Suffers from Invariance Conflicts and Causality is The Solution4 May 2026
- 2026Advancing Edge Classification through High-Dimensional Causal Modeling of Node-Edge Interplay1 May 2026
- 2026A Closer Look at the Application of Causal Inference in Graph Representation Learning10 Apr 2026
- 2026Dynamics Within Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Empirical Study of Causal Structure9 Feb 2026
- 2026Transformers learn factored representations2 Feb 2026
- 2025Causal Inference in Energy Demand Prediction12 Dec 2025
- 2025Beyond the Black Box: Identifiable Interpretation and Control in Generative Models via Causal Minimality11 Dec 2025
38 more
- 2025Integrating Machine Learning into Belief-Desire-Intention Agents: Current Advances and Open Challenges23 Oct 2025
- 2025Information Theory in Open-world Machine Learning Foundations, Frameworks, and Future Direction17 Oct 2025
- 2025A tutorial on discovering and quantifying the effect of latent causal sources of multimodal EHR data15 Oct 2025
- 2025Towards explainable decision support using hybrid neural models for logistic terminal automation9 Sep 2025
- 2025LLM-based Agents for Automated Confounder Discovery and Subgroup Analysis in Causal Inference10 Aug 2025
- 2025CAPRI-CT: Causal Analysis and Predictive Reasoning for Image Quality Optimization in Computed Tomography23 Jul 2025
- 2025Causality-informed Anomaly Detection in Partially Observable Sensor Networks: Moving beyond Correlations13 Jul 2025
- 2025Causal Machine Learning in IoT-based Engineering Problems: A Tool Comparison in the Case of Household Energy Consumption17 May 2025
- 2025Parameter Estimation using Reinforcement Learning Causal Curiosity: Limits and Challenges13 May 2025
- 2025How Well Does Your Tabular Generator Learn the Structure of Tabular Data?12 Mar 2025
- 2025Causally Reliable Concept Bottleneck Models6 Mar 2025
- 2025Causality Is Key to Understand and Balance Multiple Goals in Trustworthy ML and Foundation Models28 Feb 2025
- 2025JAM: Controllable and Responsible Text Generation via Causal Reasoning and Latent Vector Manipulation28 Feb 2025
- 2025Unveiling and Causalizing CoT: A Causal Pespective25 Feb 2025
- 2025Testing for Causal Fairness18 Feb 2025
- 2025Mapping the Landscape of Generative AI in Network Monitoring and Management12 Feb 2025
- 2025Incentivizing Desirable Effort Profiles in Strategic Classification: The Role of Causality and Uncertainty10 Feb 2025
- 2024Nature versus nurture in galaxy formation: the effect of environment on star formation with causal machine learning3 Dec 2024
- 2024A Causal Framework for Precision Rehabilitation6 Nov 2024
- 2024Identifiability Guarantees for Causal Disentanglement from Purely Observational Data31 Oct 2024
- 2024Focus On This, Not That! Steering LLMs with Adaptive Feature Specification30 Oct 2024
- 2024Causal Order Discovery based on Monotonic SCMs24 Oct 2024
- 2024Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes11 Oct 2024
- 2024Causal Reinforcement Learning for Optimisation of Robot Dynamics in Unknown Environments20 Sep 2024
- 2024Machine Learning and Theory Ladenness -- A Phenomenological Account17 Sep 2024
- 2024A Survey of Out-of-distribution Generalization for Graph Machine Learning from a Causal View15 Sep 2024
- 2024Causal Reasoning in Software Quality Assurance: A Systematic Review30 Aug 2024
- 2024Foundation Models for Music: A Survey26 Aug 2024
- 2024What if? Causal Machine Learning in Supply Chain Risk Management24 Aug 2024
- 2024Causal machine learning for sustainable agroecosystems23 Aug 2024
- 2024Wind Estimation in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles with Causal Machine Learning1 Jul 2024
- 2024Efficient Automated Circuit Discovery in Transformers using Contextual Decomposition1 Jul 2024
- 2024Disentangled Representations for Causal Cognition30 Jun 2024
- 2024Emergence of Hidden Capabilities: Exploring Learning Dynamics in Concept Space27 Jun 2024
- 2024Management Decisions in Manufacturing using Causal Machine Learning -- To Rework, or not to Rework?17 Jun 2024
- 2024Disentangled Representation via Variational AutoEncoder for Continuous Treatment Effect Estimation4 Jun 2024
- 2024Causal Concept Graph Models: Beyond Causal Opacity in Deep Learning26 May 2024
- 2024Coordinated Multi-Neighborhood Learning on a Directed Acyclic Graph24 May 2024
50 newest of 107 All 107 (JSON)
- 2023Causal reasoning in typical computer vision taskscited by 12
- 2026Dynamics Within Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Empirical Study of Causal Structurecited by 9
- 2025Unveiling and Causalizing CoT: A Causal Pespectivecited by 6
- 2025JAM: Controllable and Responsible Text Generation via Causal Reasoning and Latent Vector Manipulationcited by 5
- 2026Dynamics Within Latent Chain-of-Thought: An Empirical Study of Causal Structure9 Feb 2026
- 2025JAM: Controllable and Responsible Text Generation via Causal Reasoning and Latent Vector Manipulation28 Feb 2025
- 2025Unveiling and Causalizing CoT: A Causal Pespective25 Feb 2025
- 2023Causal reasoning in typical computer vision tasks26 Jul 2023
- 2022SADM: Sequence-Aware Diffusion Model for Longitudinal Medical Image Generationcited by 56
- 2024Foundation Models for Music: A Surveycited by 34
- 2024Response Theory via Generative Score Modelingcited by 3
- 2024Foundation Models for Music: A Survey26 Aug 2024
- 2024Response Theory via Generative Score Modeling1 Feb 2024
- 2022SADM: Sequence-Aware Diffusion Model for Longitudinal Medical Image Generation16 Dec 2022
- 2023Towards Automated Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretabilitycited by 700
- 2023Challenges and Applications of Large Language Modelscited by 251
- 2023Identifiability Guarantees for Causal Disentanglement from Soft Interventionscited by 84
- 2023The MiniPile Challenge for Data-Efficient Language Modelscited by 74
- 2024Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomescited by 73
- 2022Less Data, More Knowledge: Building Next Generation Semantic Communication Networkscited by 61
- 2022Stop Wasting My Time! Saving Days of ImageNet and BERT Training with Latest Weight Averagingcited by 54
- 2023A Survey on Causal Reinforcement Learningcited by 43
- 2023BayeSeg: Bayesian Modeling for Medical Image Segmentation with Interpretable Generalizabilitycited by 42
- 2023Spawrious: A Benchmark for Fine Control of Spurious Correlation Biasescited by 41
- 2023A Survey on Causal Discovery Methods for I.I.D. and Time Series Datacited by 35
- 2024Emergence of Hidden Capabilities: Exploring Learning Dynamics in Concept Spacecited by 33
12 most cited of 97 All 97 (JSON)
- 2026MagicSelector: Joint Optimization for Agent Tool Selection via Counterfactual Decomposition and Progressive Reranking20 Jul 2026
- 2026Solution of the Hempel's statistical ambiguity problem and Causal AI14 Jul 2026
- 2026A Neuroimaging Simulation Framework for Developing and Evaluating Causal AI27 Jun 2026
- 2026A Step Towards Inherently Interpretable Causal Machine Learning Models For Decision Support23 Jun 2026
- 2026A Completion-Aware Framework for Impactful Counterfactual Explainability in Graph Neural Networks20 Jun 2026
- 2026Trustworthy AI Suffers from Invariance Conflicts and Causality is The Solution4 May 2026
- 2026Advancing Edge Classification through High-Dimensional Causal Modeling of Node-Edge Interplay1 May 2026
- 2026A Closer Look at the Application of Causal Inference in Graph Representation Learning10 Apr 2026
- 2026Transformers learn factored representations2 Feb 2026
- 2025Causal Inference in Energy Demand Prediction12 Dec 2025
- 2025Beyond the Black Box: Identifiable Interpretation and Control in Generative Models via Causal Minimality11 Dec 2025
- 2025Integrating Machine Learning into Belief-Desire-Intention Agents: Current Advances and Open Challenges23 Oct 2025
12 newest of 97 All 97 (JSON)