mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

With Malice Towards None: Assessing Uncertainty via Equalized Coverage

arXiv 1908.05428 ↗First posted 15 Aug 2019stat.ME cs.CY stat.APcited by 43

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Abstract (arXiv)

An important factor to guarantee a fair use of data-driven recommendation systems is that we should be able to communicate their uncertainty to decision makers. This can be accomplished by constructing prediction intervals, which provide an intuitive measure of the limits of predictive performance. To support equitable treatment, we force the construction of such intervals to be unbiased in the sense that their coverage must be equal across all protected groups of interest. We present an operational methodology that achieves this goal by offering rigorous distribution-free coverage guarantees holding in finite samples. Our methodology, equalized coverage, is flexible as it can be viewed as a wrapper around any predictive algorithm. We test the applicability of the proposed framework on real data, demonstrating that equalized coverage constructs unbiased prediction intervals, unlike competitive methods.

Key facts. Cited by 43 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 15 Aug 2019.

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Citing papers per year: 2021: 8; 2022: 10; 2023: 10; 2024: 9; 2025: 5; 2026: 1.

43 papers.

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  1. 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
  2. 2023Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classescited by 109
  3. 2021Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histogramscited by 77
  4. 2021Consistent Accelerated Inference via Confident Adaptive Transformerscited by 74
  5. 2021Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imagingcited by 74
  6. 2022Batch Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 67
  7. 2022Practical Adversarial Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 65
  8. 2022Training Uncertainty-Aware Classifiers with Conformalized Deep Learningcited by 64
  9. 2021Few-shot Conformal Prediction with Auxiliary Taskscited by 53
  10. 2021Conformalized Survival Analysiscited by 53
  11. 2024Conformal Prediction for Natural Language Processing: A Surveycited by 53
  12. 2021Improving Conditional Coverage via Orthogonal Quantile Regressioncited by 48
31 more
  1. 2021PAC Prediction Sets Under Covariate Shiftcited by 45
  2. 2023Beyond Confidence: Reliable Models Should Also Consider Atypicalitycited by 25
  3. 2023Adaptive conformal classification with noisy labelscited by 25
  4. 2024Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Predictioncited by 23
  5. 2024Probabilistic Conformal Prediction with Approximate Conditional Validitycited by 23
  6. 2022Integrative conformal p-values for powerful out-of-distribution testing with labeled outlierscited by 19
  7. 2022Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regressioncited by 19
  8. 2023HappyMap: A Generalized Multi-calibration Methodcited by 18
  9. 2024End-to-end Conditional Robust Optimizationcited by 17
  10. 2023Equal Opportunity of Coverage in Fair Regressioncited by 16
  11. 2023Conformal inference is (almost) free for neural networks trained with early stoppingcited by 14
  12. 2024Conformal Prediction Sets Can Cause Disparate Impactcited by 14
  13. 2022Predictive Inference with Weak Supervisioncited by 13
  14. 2025The Relationship between No-Regret Learning and Online Conformal Predictioncited by 13
  15. 2022Conformal Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Data: A Surveycited by 11
  16. 2022Conformal Frequency Estimation using Discrete Sketched Data with Coverage for Distinct Queriescited by 10
  17. 2023Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction via Quantile Regression Calibration for Crop and Weed Classificationcited by 9
  18. 2022Prediction Sets for High-Dimensional Mixture of Experts Modelscited by 8
  19. 2024Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibrationcited by 8
  20. 2025Conditional Coverage Diagnostics for Conformal Predictioncited by 8
  21. 2025Conformal Prediction and MLLM aided Uncertainty Quantification in Scene Graph Generationcited by 7
  22. 2025Conditional Conformal Risk Adaptationcited by 7
  23. 2023Is this model reliable for everyone? Testing for strong calibrationcited by 6
  24. 2023Conformalizing Machine Translation Evaluationcited by 5
  25. 2022Distribution-Free Finite-Sample Guarantees and Split Conformal Predictioncited by 4
  26. 2024Powerful batch conformal prediction for classificationcited by 4
  27. 2024Conditional Prediction ROC Bands for Graph Classificationcited by 3
  28. 2025CP2: Leveraging Geometry for Conformal Prediction via Canonicalizationcited by 2
  29. 2026Multi-Distribution Robust Conformal Predictioncited by 2
  30. 2023Group conditional validity via multi-group learningcited by 1
  31. 2024Fast Calibrated Explanations: Efficient and Uncertainty-Aware Explanations for Machine Learning Modelscited by 1