Calibration of Neural Networks using Splines
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Abstract (arXiv)
Calibrating neural networks is of utmost importance when employing them in safety-critical applications where the downstream decision making depends on the predicted probabilities. Measuring calibration error amounts to comparing two empirical distributions. In this work, we introduce a binning-free calibration measure inspired by the classical Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistical test in which the main idea is to compare the respective cumulative probability distributions. From this, by approximating the empirical cumulative distribution using a differentiable function via splines, we obtain a recalibration function, which maps the network outputs to actual (calibrated) class assignment probabilities. The spine-fitting is performed using a held-out calibration set and the obtained recalibration function is evaluated on an unseen test set. We tested our method against existing calibration approaches on various image classification datasets and our spline-based recalibration approach consistently outperforms existing methods on KS error as well as other commonly used calibration measures. Our Code is available at https://github.com/kartikgupta-at-anu/spline-calibration.
Key facts. Cited by 97 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 23 Jun 2020.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 11; 2022: 17; 2023: 25; 2024: 23; 2025: 15; 2026: 6.
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- 2021Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 387
- 2021Soft Calibration Objectives for Neural Networkscited by 89
- 2023Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networkscited by 79
- 2022Stop Measuring Calibration When Humans Disagreecited by 70
- 2022Better Uncertainty Calibration via Proper Scores for Classification and Beyondcited by 65
- 2023Smooth ECE: Principled Reliability Diagrams via Kernel Smoothingcited by 59
- 2022A Close Look into the Calibration of Pre-trained Language Modelscited by 57
- 2022A Unifying Theory of Distance from Calibrationcited by 51
- 2021Parameterized Temperature Scaling for Boosting the Expressive Power in Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibrationcited by 48
- 2021Top-label calibration and multiclass-to-binary reductionscited by 46
- 2022A Consistent and Differentiable Lp Canonical Calibration Error Estimatorcited by 44
- 2024A Closer Look at the Robustness of Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP)cited by 44
38 more
- 2023Rethinking Confidence Calibration for Failure Predictioncited by 43
- 2024Uncertainty in Language Models: Assessment through Rank-Calibrationcited by 40
- 2022What Makes Graph Neural Networks Miscalibrated?cited by 39
- 2023Towards Calibrated Robust Fine-Tuning of Vision-Language Modelscited by 35
- 2023Dual Focal Loss for Calibrationcited by 33
- 2022Beyond calibration: estimating the grouping loss of modern neural networkscited by 32
- 2022AdaFocal: Calibration-aware Adaptive Focal Losscited by 32
- 2022Metrics of calibration for probabilistic predictionscited by 31
- 2022Block Selection Method for Using Feature Norm in Out-of-distribution Detectioncited by 30
- 2021Local Calibration: Metrics and Recalibrationcited by 23
- 2023Confidence and Dispersity Speak: Characterising Prediction Matrix for Unsupervised Accuracy Estimationcited by 22
- 2024An Empirical Study Into What Matters for Calibrating Vision-Language Modelscited by 20
- 2025Understanding Model Calibration -- A gentle introduction and visual exploration of calibration and the expected calibration error (ECE)cited by 20
- 2021Intermediate Layers Matter in Momentum Contrastive Self Supervised Learningcited by 19
- 2023RankMixup: Ranking-Based Mixup Training for Network Calibrationcited by 19
- 2021FairCal: Fairness Calibration for Face Verificationcited by 17
- 2023Reliability in Semantic Segmentation: Are We on the Right Track?cited by 16
- 2024Interpreting Predictive Probabilities: Model Confidence or Human Label Variation?cited by 15
- 2021Deep Probability Estimationcited by 14
- 2023Beyond In-Domain Scenarios: Robust Density-Aware Calibrationcited by 14
- 2023ESD: Expected Squared Difference as a Tuning-Free Trainable Calibration Measurecited by 13
- 2024Toward a Holistic Evaluation of Robustness in CLIP Modelscited by 13
- 2021Improving Uncertainty Calibration of Deep Neural Networks via Truth Discovery and Geometric Optimizationcited by 11
- 2024Confidence Calibration of Classifiers with Many Classescited by 11
- 2023Minimum-Risk Recalibration of Classifierscited by 10
- 2023Beyond Probability Partitions: Calibrating Neural Networks with Semantic Aware Groupingcited by 10
- 2023A Benchmark Study on Calibrationcited by 10
- 2023Consistent and Asymptotically Unbiased Estimation of Proper Calibration Errorscited by 10
- 2023SimCalib: Graph Neural Network Calibration based on Similarity between Nodescited by 10
- 2023Calibrating a Deep Neural Network with Its Predecessorscited by 9
- 2024Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Predictioncited by 9
- 2022Taking a Step Back with KCal: Multi-Class Kernel-Based Calibration for Deep Neural Networkscited by 8
- 2024Accurate and Scalable Estimation of Epistemic Uncertainty for Graph Neural Networkscited by 8
- 2024Few-Shot Recalibration of Language Modelscited by 8
- 2023Uncertainty Aware Training to Improve Deep Learning Model Calibration for Classification of Cardiac MR Imagescited by 7
- 2024Calibration Attacks: A Comprehensive Study of Adversarial Attacks on Model Confidencecited by 7
- 2024Similarity-Navigated Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Networkscited by 7
- 2025A calibration test for evaluating set-based epistemic uncertainty representationscited by 7
50 most cited of 97 All 97 (JSON)
- 2026Invertible Logits Transformation for Accuracy-Preserving Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibration11 Aug 2026
- 2026Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Confidence Calibration19 Jun 2026
- 2026CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark28 May 2026
- 2026Expectation Consistency Loss: Rethink Confidence Calibration under Covariate Shift20 May 2026
- 2026VOLTA: The Surprising Ineffectiveness of Auxiliary Losses for Calibrated Deep Learning9 Apr 2026
- 2026Decomposing Probabilistic Scores: Reliability, Information Loss and Uncertainty16 Mar 2026
- 2025Multiclass Local Calibration with the Jensen-Shannon Distance30 Oct 2025
- 2025Scalable Utility-Aware Multiclass Calibration29 Oct 2025
- 2025DATS: Distance-Aware Temperature Scaling for Calibrated Class-Incremental Learning25 Sep 2025
- 2025Where are we with calibration under dataset shift in image classification?10 Jul 2025
- 2025Instance-Wise Monotonic Calibration by Constrained Transformation9 Jul 2025
- 2025Sample Margin-Aware Recalibration of Temperature Scaling30 Jun 2025
38 more
- 2025h-calibration: Rethinking Classifier Recalibration with Probabilistic Error-Bounded Objective22 Jun 2025
- 2025Uncertainty Estimation by Human Perception versus Neural Models18 Jun 2025
- 2025Beyond Overconfidence: Foundation Models Redefine Calibration in Deep Neural Networks11 Jun 2025
- 2025CLUE: Neural Networks Calibration via Learning Uncertainty-Error alignment28 May 2025
- 2025Comparing Uncertainty Measurement and Mitigation Methods for Large Language Models: A Systematic Review25 Apr 2025
- 2025A calibration test for evaluating set-based epistemic uncertainty representations22 Feb 2025
- 2025Understanding Model Calibration -- A gentle introduction and visual exploration of calibration and the expected calibration error (ECE)31 Jan 2025
- 2025Distilling Calibration via Conformalized Credal Inference10 Jan 2025
- 2025Enhancing Trustworthiness of Graph Neural Networks with Rank-Based Conformal Training6 Jan 2025
- 2024Combining Priors with Experience: Confidence Calibration Based on Binomial Process Modeling14 Dec 2024
- 2024Confidence Calibration of Classifiers with Many Classes5 Nov 2024
- 2024A Monte Carlo Framework for Calibrated Uncertainty Estimation in Sequence Prediction30 Oct 2024
- 2024Toward a Holistic Evaluation of Robustness in CLIP Models2 Oct 2024
- 2024RoCP-GNN: Robust Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Networks in Node-Classification25 Aug 2024
- 2024Probabilistic Scores of Classifiers, Calibration is not Enough6 Aug 2024
- 2024Uncertainty Calibration with Energy Based Instance-wise Scaling in the Wild Dataset17 Jul 2024
- 2024Similarity-Navigated Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Networks23 May 2024
- 2024Error-Driven Uncertainty Aware Training2 May 2024
- 2024Uncertainty Quantification on Graph Learning: A Survey23 Apr 2024
- 2024Optimizing Calibration by Gaining Aware of Prediction Correctness19 Apr 2024
- 2024Uncertainty in Language Models: Assessment through Rank-Calibration4 Apr 2024
- 2024Few-Shot Recalibration of Language Models27 Mar 2024
- 2024Class and Region-Adaptive Constraints for Network Calibration19 Mar 2024
- 2024Probabilistic Calibration by Design for Neural Network Regression18 Mar 2024
- 2024Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Prediction5 Mar 2024
- 2024Predict the Next Word: Humans exhibit uncertainty in this task and language models _____27 Feb 2024
- 2024Interpreting Predictive Probabilities: Model Confidence or Human Label Variation?25 Feb 2024
- 2024How Flawed Is ECE? An Analysis via Logit Smoothing15 Feb 2024
- 2024An Empirical Study Into What Matters for Calibrating Vision-Language Models12 Feb 2024
- 2024A Closer Look at the Robustness of Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP)12 Feb 2024
- 2024Accurate and Scalable Estimation of Epistemic Uncertainty for Graph Neural Networks7 Jan 2024
- 2024Calibration Attacks: A Comprehensive Study of Adversarial Attacks on Model Confidence5 Jan 2024
- 2023SimCalib: Graph Neural Network Calibration based on Similarity between Nodes19 Dec 2023
- 2023Consistent and Asymptotically Unbiased Estimation of Proper Calibration Errors14 Dec 2023
- 2023Preventing Arbitrarily High Confidence on Far-Away Data in Point-Estimated Discriminative Neural Networks7 Nov 2023
- 2023Towards a data-driven debt collection strategy based on an advanced machine learning framework3 Nov 2023
- 2023Towards Calibrated Robust Fine-Tuning of Vision-Language Models3 Nov 2023
- 2023MaxEnt Loss: Constrained Maximum Entropy for Calibration under Out-of-Distribution Shift26 Oct 2023
50 newest of 97 All 97 (JSON)
- 2021Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 387
- 2021Soft Calibration Objectives for Neural Networkscited by 89
- 2023Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networkscited by 79
- 2022Stop Measuring Calibration When Humans Disagreecited by 70
- 2022Better Uncertainty Calibration via Proper Scores for Classification and Beyondcited by 65
- 2023Smooth ECE: Principled Reliability Diagrams via Kernel Smoothingcited by 59
- 2022A Close Look into the Calibration of Pre-trained Language Modelscited by 57
- 2022A Unifying Theory of Distance from Calibrationcited by 51
- 2021Parameterized Temperature Scaling for Boosting the Expressive Power in Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibrationcited by 48
- 2021Top-label calibration and multiclass-to-binary reductionscited by 46
- 2022A Consistent and Differentiable Lp Canonical Calibration Error Estimatorcited by 44
- 2024A Closer Look at the Robustness of Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP)cited by 44
12 most cited of 94 All 94 (JSON)
- 2026Invertible Logits Transformation for Accuracy-Preserving Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibration11 Aug 2026
- 2026Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Confidence Calibration19 Jun 2026
- 2026CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark28 May 2026
- 2026Expectation Consistency Loss: Rethink Confidence Calibration under Covariate Shift20 May 2026
- 2026VOLTA: The Surprising Ineffectiveness of Auxiliary Losses for Calibrated Deep Learning9 Apr 2026
- 2026Decomposing Probabilistic Scores: Reliability, Information Loss and Uncertainty16 Mar 2026
- 2025Multiclass Local Calibration with the Jensen-Shannon Distance30 Oct 2025
- 2025Scalable Utility-Aware Multiclass Calibration29 Oct 2025
- 2025DATS: Distance-Aware Temperature Scaling for Calibrated Class-Incremental Learning25 Sep 2025
- 2025Where are we with calibration under dataset shift in image classification?10 Jul 2025
- 2025Instance-Wise Monotonic Calibration by Constrained Transformation9 Jul 2025
- 2025Sample Margin-Aware Recalibration of Temperature Scaling30 Jun 2025
12 newest of 94 All 94 (JSON)