Transformer Hawkes Process
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Abstract (arXiv)
Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal dependencies. However, most of the existing recurrent neural network based point process models fail to capture such dependencies, and yield unreliable prediction performance. To address this issue, we propose a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model, which leverages the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies and meanwhile enjoys computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that THP outperforms existing models in terms of both likelihood and event prediction accuracy by a notable margin. Moreover, THP is quite general and can incorporate additional structural knowledge. We provide a concrete example, where THP achieves improved prediction performance for learning multiple point processes when incorporating their relational information.
Key facts. Cited by 235 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 21 Feb 2020.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 25; 2022: 29; 2023: 46; 2024: 62; 2025: 34; 2026: 39.
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- 2021CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputationcited by 582
- 2022Transformers in Time Series: A Surveycited by 497
- 2021Neural Temporal Point Processes: A Reviewcited by 114
- 2023Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlookcited by 110
- 2021Transformer Embeddings of Irregularly Spaced Events and Their Participantscited by 93
- 2023EasyTPP: Towards Open Benchmarking Temporal Point Processescited by 68
- 2024ContiFormer: Continuous-Time Transformer for Irregular Time Series Modelingcited by 63
- 2023A Unified, Scalable Framework for Neural Population Decodingcited by 61
- 2022HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequencescited by 57
- 2024Large Language Models for Forecasting and Anomaly Detection: A Systematic Literature Reviewcited by 53
- 2023Spatio-temporal Diffusion Point Processescited by 52
- 2023Event Stream GPT: A Data Pre-processing and Modeling Library for Generative, Pre-trained Transformers over Continuous-time Sequences of Complex Eventscited by 46
38 more
- 2023Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoningcited by 45
- 2021Neural Point Process for Learning Spatiotemporal Event Dynamicscited by 42
- 2023Anticipatory Music Transformercited by 36
- 2022Exploring Generative Neural Temporal Point Processcited by 30
- 2023Prompt-augmented Temporal Point Process for Streaming Event Sequencecited by 24
- 2024A survey of dynamic graph neural networkscited by 24
- 2022Bellman Meets Hawkes: Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Temporal Point Processescited by 23
- 2023Add and Thin: Diffusion for Temporal Point Processescited by 23
- 2024Mobility-LLM: Learning Visiting Intentions and Travel Preferences from Human Mobility Data with Large Language Modelscited by 22
- 2021Long Horizon Forecasting With Temporal Point Processescited by 20
- 2022Counterfactual Neural Temporal Point Process for Estimating Causal Influence of Misinformation on Social Mediacited by 20
- 2023Learning to Simulate Daily Activities via Modeling Dynamic Human Needscited by 20
- 2022A Graph Regularized Point Process Model For Event Propagation Sequencecited by 17
- 2023Meta Temporal Point Processescited by 17
- 2024Decomposable Transformer Point Processescited by 16
- 2024An Introduction to Deep Survival Analysis Models for Predicting Time-to-Event Outcomescited by 16
- 2022Mutual Distillation Learning Network for Trajectory-User Linkingcited by 15
- 2022Learning Temporal Point Processes for Efficient Retrieval of Continuous Time Event Sequencescited by 14
- 2022Cardinality-Regularized Hawkes-Granger Modelcited by 14
- 2024Unlocking Point Processes through Point Set Diffusioncited by 14
- 2023Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Point Process for Traffic Congestion Event Predictioncited by 13
- 2024HoTPP Benchmark: Are We Good at the Long Horizon Events Forecasting?cited by 13
- 2021Mitigating Performance Saturation in Neural Marked Point Processes: Architectures and Loss Functionscited by 12
- 2021Region Invariant Normalizing Flows for Mobility Transfercited by 12
- 2022ProActive: Self-Attentive Temporal Point Process Flows for Activity Sequencescited by 11
- 2024Deep Continuous-Time State-Space Models for Marked Event Sequencescited by 11
- 2021Neural Spectral Marked Point Processescited by 10
- 2021An Empirical Study: Extensive Deep Temporal Point Processcited by 10
- 2023Transformer-Based Neural Marked Spatio Temporal Point Process Model for Football Match Events Analysiscited by 10
- 2023Interacting Diffusion Processes for Event Sequence Forecastingcited by 10
- 2023A Systematic Review for Transformer-based Long-term Series Forecastingcited by 10
- 2024Self-Supervised Learning of Time Series Representation via Diffusion Process and Imputation-Interpolation-Forecasting Maskcited by 10
- 2023Memory Efficient Neural Processes via Constant Memory Attention Blockcited by 9
- 2024Latent Logic Tree Extraction for Event Sequence Explanation from LLMscited by 9
- 2024TPP-LLM: Modeling Temporal Point Processes by Efficiently Fine-Tuning Large Language Modelscited by 9
- 2022Learning Self-Modulating Attention in Continuous Time Space with Applications to Sequential Recommendationcited by 8
- 2022Spatio-temporal point processes with deep non-stationary kernelscited by 8
- 2023Integration-free Training for Spatio-temporal Multimodal Covariate Deep Kernel Point Processescited by 8
50 most cited of 235 All 235 (JSON)
- 2026Can LLMs Access their World Knowledge for Event Prediction?13 Oct 2026
- 2026Foundation Models for Event Prediction Across Heterogeneous Event Logs13 Oct 2026
- 2026Amortized Variational Inference of Latent Intensities from Replicated Point Patterns12 Oct 2026
- 2026Exact Phase-Type Point Processes for Certified Measurement and Prediction of Event Streams10 Oct 2026
- 2026Modeling the Arrival Time of Information-Bearing Events in Natural Language9 Oct 2026
- 2026ReWorld-Track: A Recursive Event World Model for Language-Guided Multi-Camera Tracking29 Sep 2026
- 2026seq2cause: One Autoregressive Backbone, Four Causal Discovery Tasks in Event Sequences25 Sep 2026
- 2026Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer: Integrating Heterogeneous Context for Process Event Prediction21 Sep 2026
- 2026Probabilistic Forecasting of Business Process Executions with Neural Temporal Point Processes18 Sep 2026
- 2026Hand-Aware Transition Modeling for Bimanual Procedural Anomaly Detection18 Sep 2026
- 2026FINESSE: An Agent-Based Simulator and Benchmark Dataset for Multimodal Financial Event Sequences9 Sep 2026
- 2026Resilient Concurrent Causal Discovery for Topological Event Sequences22 Aug 2026
38 more
- 2026Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Heterogeneous Multi-Robot Task Assignment Under Distribution Shifts21 Aug 2026
- 2026ChronoSSM: Training for Temporally Aware Representations in Autoregressive State Space Models10 Aug 2026
- 2026GTIN: A Unified Framework for Joint Event and Time Prediction in Temporal Graphs26 Jul 2026
- 2026What Softmax Throws Away: Mass-Aware Attention for Evidence Accumulation24 Jul 2026
- 2026GAttNHP: Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process for Extrapolation Reasoning in Temporal Knowledge Graphs16 Jul 2026
- 2026Seahorse: A Unified Benchmarking Framework for Spatiotemporal Event Modeling1 Jul 2026
- 2026Multi-Stream Temporal Fusion for Financial Fraud Detection23 Jun 2026
- 2026Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes: A Semi-Autoregressive Framework for Asynchronous Event Sequence Generation23 Jun 2026
- 2026SOHET: Sequence Of Heterogeneous Events Transformer with Self-Supervised Pre-Training19 Jun 2026
- 2026GLIDE: Graph-guided Leap Inference for Diffusion Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Point Processes31 May 2026
- 2026Structured Neural Marked Point Processes for Interpretable Event Interaction Modeling17 May 2026
- 2026SurF: A Generative Model for Multivariate Irregular Time Series Forecasting13 May 2026
- 2026L-FNO: Lorentzian Fourier Neural Operator for Stochastic Event Dynamics7 May 2026
- 2026Arbitrarily Conditioned Hierarchical Flows for Spatiotemporal Events2 May 2026
- 2026Deep Kernel Learning for Stratifying Glaucoma Trajectories1 May 2026
- 2026Modeling Patient Care Trajectories with Transformer Hawkes Processes7 Apr 2026
- 2026Kronecker-Structured Nonparametric Spatiotemporal Point Processes24 Mar 2026
- 2026Modeling Matches as Language: A Generative Transformer Approach for Counterfactual Player Valuation in Football16 Mar 2026
- 2026Bridging Discrete Marks and Continuous Dynamics: Dual-Path Cross-Interaction for Marked Temporal Point Processes12 Mar 2026
- 2026Discrete Tokenization Unlocks Transformers for Calibrated Tabular Forecasting8 Mar 2026
- 2026Stochastic Event Prediction via Temporal Motif Transitions6 Mar 2026
- 2026Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Processes27 Feb 2026
- 2026Your Autoregressive Model Already Reveals the Causal Graph1 Feb 2026
- 2026Long-range Modeling and Processing of Multimodal Event Sequences1 Feb 2026
- 2026Transforming Vehicle Diagnostics: A Multimodal Approach to Error Patterns Prediction1 Feb 2026
- 2026TempoNet: Learning Realistic Communication and Timing Patterns for Network Traffic Simulation22 Jan 2026
- 2026From Hawkes Processes to Attention: Time-Modulated Mechanisms for Event Sequences14 Jan 2026
- 2025Enhancing Temporal Awareness in LLMs for Temporal Point Processes29 Dec 2025
- 2025TransactionGPT12 Nov 2025
- 2025Benchmark Datasets for Lead-Lag Forecasting on Social Platforms5 Nov 2025
- 2025Hyper Hawkes Processes: Interpretable Models of Marked Temporal Point Processes2 Nov 2025
- 2025NetBurst: Event-Centric Forecasting of Bursty, Intermittent Time Series25 Oct 2025
- 2025Addressing Mark Imbalance in Integration-free Neural Marked Temporal Point Processes23 Oct 2025
- 2025Speculative Sampling for Parametric Temporal Point Processes22 Oct 2025
- 2025Still Competitive: Revisiting Recurrent Models for Irregular Time Series Prediction17 Oct 2025
- 2025Integrating Sequential and Relational Modeling for User Events: Datasets and Prediction Tasks13 Oct 2025
- 2025A Representer Theorem for Hawkes Processes via Penalized Least Squares Minimization10 Oct 2025
- 2025GSTM-HMU: Generative Spatio-Temporal Modeling for Human Mobility Understanding23 Sep 2025
50 newest of 235 All 235 (JSON)
- 2024Mamba Hawkes Processcited by 5
- 2024Mamba Hawkes Process7 Jul 2024
- 2022Transformers in Time Series: A Surveycited by 497
- 2021Neural Temporal Point Processes: A Reviewcited by 114
- 2023Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlookcited by 110
- 2021Transformer Embeddings of Irregularly Spaced Events and Their Participantscited by 93
- 2023EasyTPP: Towards Open Benchmarking Temporal Point Processescited by 68
- 2024ContiFormer: Continuous-Time Transformer for Irregular Time Series Modelingcited by 63
- 2023A Unified, Scalable Framework for Neural Population Decodingcited by 61
- 2022HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequencescited by 57
- 2024Large Language Models for Forecasting and Anomaly Detection: A Systematic Literature Reviewcited by 53
- 2023Spatio-temporal Diffusion Point Processescited by 52
- 2023Event Stream GPT: A Data Pre-processing and Modeling Library for Generative, Pre-trained Transformers over Continuous-time Sequences of Complex Eventscited by 46
- 2021Neural Point Process for Learning Spatiotemporal Event Dynamicscited by 42
12 most cited of 225 All 225 (JSON)
- 2026Can LLMs Access their World Knowledge for Event Prediction?13 Oct 2026
- 2026Foundation Models for Event Prediction Across Heterogeneous Event Logs13 Oct 2026
- 2026Amortized Variational Inference of Latent Intensities from Replicated Point Patterns12 Oct 2026
- 2026Exact Phase-Type Point Processes for Certified Measurement and Prediction of Event Streams10 Oct 2026
- 2026Modeling the Arrival Time of Information-Bearing Events in Natural Language9 Oct 2026
- 2026seq2cause: One Autoregressive Backbone, Four Causal Discovery Tasks in Event Sequences25 Sep 2026
- 2026Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer: Integrating Heterogeneous Context for Process Event Prediction21 Sep 2026
- 2026Probabilistic Forecasting of Business Process Executions with Neural Temporal Point Processes18 Sep 2026
- 2026Hand-Aware Transition Modeling for Bimanual Procedural Anomaly Detection18 Sep 2026
- 2026FINESSE: An Agent-Based Simulator and Benchmark Dataset for Multimodal Financial Event Sequences9 Sep 2026
- 2026Resilient Concurrent Causal Discovery for Topological Event Sequences22 Aug 2026
- 2026ChronoSSM: Training for Temporally Aware Representations in Autoregressive State Space Models10 Aug 2026
12 newest of 225 All 225 (JSON)