Can LLMs Access their World Knowledge for Event Prediction?
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Recent work has questioned whether large language models (LLMs) can be useful for temporal event prediction. Despite vast pretrained world knowledge, LLMs often underperform simpler specialized models. We ask whether this knowledge is truly inaccessible, or whether current methods fail to present event prediction in a form LLMs can use. We argue for the latter and show that LLMs become effective event forecasters when the interface is designed around two choices. The first grounds each event in a natural-language description, and the second separates event semantics from the prediction space to prevent semantic bias from label associations. To test this, we introduce DescribeEvent, a benchmark of ~150K events across seven datasets and six domains with event-level descriptions. We find that capable LLMs substantially benefit from descriptions and symbolic labels, outperforming description-free variants and non-LLM baselines, while weaker models gain little. These results suggest that accessing LLM world knowledge for event prediction is an interface problem, and that event descriptions offer a practical way to elicit the knowledge LLMs already encode.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 21 of its 36 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 13 Oct 2026.
Builds on
21 of 36 references.
References · 21
- 2019Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networkscited by 9,170
- 2023Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttentioncited by 5,944
- 2023GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmarkcited by 2,879
- 2021Calibrate Before Use: Improving Few-Shot Performance of Language Modelscited by 1,392
- 2023ChatGPT Outperforms Crowd-Workers for Text-Annotation Taskscited by 870
- 2024Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Seriescited by 759
- 2023One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LMcited by 632
- 2023Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasterscited by 500
- 2025Humanity's Last Examcited by 491
- 2020Transformer Hawkes Processcited by 235
- 2024Tokenization counts: the impact of tokenization on arithmetic in frontier LLMscited by 115
- 2023Symbol tuning improves in-context learning in language modelscited by 75
9 more
- 2024LLM Processes: Numerical Predictive Distributions Conditioned on Natural Languagecited by 55
- 2023Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoningcited by 45
- 2024MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecastingcited by 41
- 2024Beyond Performance: Quantifying and Mitigating Label Bias in LLMscited by 25
- 2024Reducing Distraction in Long-Context Language Models by Focused Learningcited by 9
- 2024A Comprehensive Evaluation of Large Language Models on Temporal Event Forecastingcited by 8
- 2025Byte-token Enhanced Language Models for Temporal Point Processes Analysiscited by 6
- 2025LAST SToP For Modeling Asynchronous Time Seriescited by 5
- 2026Is More Context Always Better? Examining LLM Reasoning Capability for Time Interval Predictioncited by 4
Built on by
Not cited yet.