mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning

arXiv 2305.16646 ↗First posted 26 May 2023cs.CL cs.AI cs.LGcited by 44

On the map: LLM reasoning → Causal reasoning in LLMs

Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework -- thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models -- could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

Key facts. Cited by 44 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Causal reasoning in LLMs, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 41 of its 86 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 May 2023.

Builds on

41 of 86 references.

References · 41

  1. 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,199
  2. 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,132
  3. 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,302
  4. 2019Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networkscited by 9,049
  5. 2020Learning to summarize from human feedbackcited by 2,562
  6. 2022Emergent Abilities of Large Language Modelscited by 2,483
  7. 2022Least-to-Most Prompting Enables Complex Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 1,397
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  9. 2020Transformer Hawkes Processcited by 230
  10. 2017Know-Evolve: Deep Temporal Reasoning for Dynamic Knowledge Graphscited by 149
  11. 2019Intensity-Free Learning of Temporal Point Processescited by 138
  12. 2019Fully Neural Network based Model for General Temporal Point Processescited by 119
29 more
  1. 2021Transformer Embeddings of Irregularly Spaced Events and Their Participantscited by 90
  2. 2018A Multi-Axis Annotation Scheme for Event Temporal Relationscited by 73
  3. 2022LAMBADA: Backward Chaining for Automated Reasoning in Natural Languagecited by 66
  4. 2020TORQUE: A Reading Comprehension Dataset of Temporal Ordering Questionscited by 65
  5. 2019Joint Reasoning for Temporal and Causal Relationscited by 60
  6. 2020Cross-media Structured Common Space for Multimedia Event Extractioncited by 59
  7. 2020Temporal Reasoning on Implicit Events from Distant Supervisioncited by 58
  8. 2022HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequencescited by 57
  9. 2020Joint Constrained Learning for Event-Event Relation Extractioncited by 53
  10. 2020Identifying Coordinated Accounts on Social Media through Hidden Influence and Group Behaviourscited by 46
  11. 2020Neural Temporal Point Processes For Modelling Electronic Health Recordscited by 39
  12. 2020Temporal Common Sense Acquisition with Minimal Supervisioncited by 38
  13. 2021ESTER: A Machine Reading Comprehension Dataset for Event Semantic Relation Reasoningcited by 30
  14. 2019Self-Attentive Hawkes Processescited by 23
  15. 2022Counterfactual Neural Temporal Point Process for Estimating Causal Influence of Misinformation on Social Mediacited by 20
  16. 2022Generic Temporal Reasoning with Differential Analysis and Explanationcited by 18
  17. 2020User-Dependent Neural Sequence Models for Continuous-Time Event Datacited by 17
  18. 2016Learning Network of Multivariate Hawkes Processes: A Time Series Approachcited by 15
  19. 2023Language Models with Rationalitycited by 15
  20. 2023Human-in-the-Loop Schema Inductioncited by 13
  21. 2020Severing the Edge Between Before and After: Neural Architectures for Temporal Ordering of Eventscited by 12
  22. 2021Event-Driven News Stream Clustering using Entity-Aware Contextual Embeddingscited by 12
  23. 2020Neural Datalog Through Time: Informed Temporal Modeling via Logical Specificationcited by 10
  24. 2021Learning Constraints and Descriptive Segmentation for Subevent Detectioncited by 9
  25. 2022Zero-Shot On-the-Fly Event Schema Inductioncited by 9
  26. 2022Open Relation and Event Type Discovery with Type Abstractioncited by 9
  27. 2017Joint Modeling of Event Sequence and Time Series with Attentional Twin Recurrent Neural Networkscited by 5
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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2023: 6; 2024: 17; 2025: 17; 2026: 4.

44 papers.

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  1. 2024Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Surveycited by 234
  2. 2023Large Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data: A Survey and Outlookcited by 109
  3. 2023EasyTPP: Towards Open Benchmarking Temporal Point Processescited by 63
  4. 2024Empowering Time Series Analysis with Large Language Models: A Surveycited by 60
  5. 2023Enhancing Recommender Systems with Large Language Model Reasoning Graphscited by 52
  6. 2024Large Language Models for Forecasting and Anomaly Detection: A Systematic Literature Reviewcited by 50
  7. 2025TimeXL: Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loopcited by 39
  8. 2023Prompt-augmented Temporal Point Process for Streaming Event Sequencecited by 24
  9. 2025Foundation Models for Spatio-Temporal Data Science: A Tutorial and Surveycited by 23
  10. 2024Towards Explainable Traffic Flow Prediction with Large Language Modelscited by 20
  11. 2024IDEA: Enhancing the Rule Learning Ability of Large Language Model Agent through Induction, Deduction, and Abductioncited by 20
  12. 2025BRIDGE: Bootstrapping Text to Control Time-Series Generation via Multi-Agent Iterative Optimization and Diffusion Modelingcited by 18
32 more
  1. 2024Chain-of-History Reasoning for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecastingcited by 17
  2. 2024SHIELD: LLM-Driven Schema Induction for Predictive Analytics in EV Battery Supply Chain Disruptionscited by 12
  3. 2025A Survey on Mathematical Reasoning and Optimization with Large Language Modelscited by 12
  4. 2025Unraveling Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models via the Pipeline Lens: A Comprehensive Reviewcited by 10
  5. 2024Assessing the Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs in the context of Evidence-based Claim Verificationcited by 9
  6. 2024Demonstration of DB-GPT: Next Generation Data Interaction System Empowered by Large Language Modelscited by 9
  7. 2024Latent Logic Tree Extraction for Event Sequence Explanation from LLMscited by 9
  8. 2024TPP-LLM: Modeling Temporal Point Processes by Efficiently Fine-Tuning Large Language Modelscited by 8
  9. 2025Can Prompts Rewind Time for LLMs? Evaluating the Effectiveness of Prompted Knowledge Cutoffscited by 8
  10. 2024When Reasoning Meets Information Aggregation: A Case Study with Sports Narrativescited by 7
  11. 2024A Comprehensive Evaluation of Large Language Models on Temporal Event Forecastingcited by 7
  12. 2025DanmakuTPPBench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Temporal Point Process Modeling and Understandingcited by 7
  13. 2023Back to the Future: Towards Explainable Temporal Reasoning with Large Language Modelscited by 5
  14. 2025Byte-token Enhanced Language Models for Temporal Point Processes Analysiscited by 5
  15. 2026Wiring the 'Why': A Unified Taxonomy and Survey of Abductive Reasoning in LLMscited by 5
  16. 2024ONSEP: A Novel Online Neural-Symbolic Framework for Event Prediction Based on Large Language Modelcited by 4
  17. 2024Foundation Model Sherpas: Guiding Foundation Models through Knowledge and Reasoningcited by 3
  18. 2023Deep Optimal Timing Strategies for Time Seriescited by 2
  19. 2025Advances in Temporal Point Processes: Bayesian, Neural, and LLM Approachescited by 2
  20. 2025Large Language models for Time Series Analysis: Techniques, Applications, and Challengescited by 2
  21. 2025LATTE: Learning Aligned Transactions and Textual Embeddings for Bank Clientscited by 2
  22. 2024Large Language Models as Interpolated and Extrapolated Event Predictorscited by 1
  23. 2024Forecasting Future International Events: A Reliable Dataset for Text-Based Event Modelingcited by 1
  24. 2025Causal Graph Fuzzy LLMs: A First Introduction and Applications in Time Series Forecastingcited by 1
  25. 2025Enhancing Temporal Awareness in LLMs for Temporal Point Processescited by 1
  26. 2025Political Events using RAG with LLMscited by 0
  27. 2025Out-of-Context Abduction: LLMs Make Inferences About Procedural Data Leveraging Declarative Facts in Earlier Training Datacited by 0
  28. 2025Multi-Modal Drift Forecasting of Leeway Objects via Navier-Stokes-Guided CNN and Sequence-to-Sequence Attention-Based Modelscited by 0
  29. 2025Debugging Tabular Log as Dynamic Graphscited by 0
  30. 2026Long-range Modeling and Processing of Multimodal Event Sequencescited by 0
  31. 2026Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes: A Semi-Autoregressive Framework for Asynchronous Event Sequence Generationcited by 0
  32. 2026Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetrycited by 0

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  1. 2026SemEval-2026 Task 12: Abductive Event Reasoning: Towards Real-World Event Causal Inference for Large Language Models
  2. 2023UNcommonsense Reasoning: Abductive Reasoning about Uncommon Situations
  3. 2024EVIT: Event-Oriented Instruction Tuning for Event Reasoning
  4. 2024Structured Event Reasoning with Large Language Models
  5. 2024A Comprehensive Evaluation on Event Reasoning of Large Language Models
  6. 2025Event Extraction in Large Language Model
  7. 2025Advancing Reasoning in Large Language Models: Promising Methods and Approaches
  8. 2023Causal Reasoning of Entities and Events in Procedural Texts