Symmetric Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Efficient Uncertainty Sets
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Abstract (arXiv)
Access to multiple predictive models trained for the same task, whether in regression or classification, is increasingly common in many applications. Aggregating their predictive uncertainties to produce reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification is therefore a critical but still underexplored challenge, especially within the framework of conformal prediction (CP). While CP methods can generate individual prediction sets from each model, combining them into a single, more informative set remains a challenging problem. To address this, we propose SACP (Symmetric Aggregated Conformal Prediction), a novel method that aggregates nonconformity scores from multiple predictors. SACP transforms these scores into e-values and combines them using any symmetric aggregation function. This flexible design enables a robust, data-driven framework for selecting aggregation strategies that yield sharper prediction sets. We also provide theoretical insights that help justify the validity and performance of the SACP approach. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets show that SACP consistently improves efficiency and often outperforms state-of-the-art model aggregation baselines.
Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 12 of its 31 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Dec 2025.
Builds on
12 of 31 references.
References · 12
- 2021A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 792
- 2014OpenML: networked science in machine learningcited by 526
- 2022Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-valuescited by 69
- 2024Merging uncertainty sets via majority votecited by 30
- 2025Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regressioncited by 27
- 2025E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Predictioncited by 26
- 2025Multivariate Conformal Prediction using Optimal Transportcited by 22
- 2024Trustworthy Classification through Rank-Based Conformal Prediction Setscited by 20
- 2024Enhancing Conformal Prediction Using E-Test Statisticscited by 19
- 2025From Aleatoric to Epistemic: Exploring Uncertainty Quantification Techniques in Artificial Intelligencecited by 18
- 2024Conformal Prediction for Ensembles: Improving Efficiency via Score-Based Aggregationcited by 9
- 2025Improving the statistical efficiency of cross-conformal predictioncited by 5
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 4.
4 papers.
- 2026CAOS: Conformal Aggregation of One-Shot Predictorscited by 1
- 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformationcited by 1
- 2026Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Valuescited by 0
- 2026Unifying Conformal Language Tasks with In-Context Ensemblescited by 0
- 2026Unifying Conformal Language Tasks with In-Context Ensembles2 Sep 2026
- 2026Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values2 Jun 2026
- 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformation2 Feb 2026
- 2026CAOS: Conformal Aggregation of One-Shot Predictors8 Jan 2026