Prediction-Powered E-Values
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Abstract (arXiv)
Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to Z-estimation problems such as inference of means and quantiles. In this paper, we apply ideas of prediction-powered inference to e-values. By doing so, we inherit all the usual benefits of e-values -- such as anytime-validity, post-hoc validity and versatile sequential inference -- as well as greatly expand the set of inferences achievable in a prediction-powered manner. In particular, we show that every inference procedure that can be framed in terms of e-values has a prediction-powered counterpart, given by our method. We showcase the effectiveness of our framework across a wide range of inference tasks, from simple hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to more involved procedures for change-point detection and causal discovery, which were out of reach of previous techniques. Our approach is modular and easily integrable into existing algorithms, making it a compelling choice for practical applications.
Key facts. Cited by 16 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 24 of its 38 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2025.
Builds on
24 of 38 references.
References · 24
- 2018Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequencescited by 220
- 2023Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 214
- 2013Causal Inference in the Presence of Latent Variables and Selection Biascited by 165
- 2020Estimating means of bounded random variables by bettingcited by 164
- 2022Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inferencecited by 145
- 2023Causal-learn: Causal Discovery in Pythoncited by 108
- 2023PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 103
- 2024Hypothesis testing with e-valuescited by 70
- 2023Cross-Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 57
- 2024AutoEval Done Right: Using Synthetic Data for Model Evaluationcited by 53
- 2021Tracking the risk of a deployed model and detecting harmful distribution shiftscited by 38
- 2022Anytime-valid off-policy inference for contextual banditscited by 37
12 more
- 2021Time-uniform central limit theory and asymptotic confidence sequencescited by 29
- 2024Prediction-Powered Ranking of Large Language Modelscited by 29
- 2022E-detectors: a nonparametric framework for sequential change detectioncited by 27
- 2024Protected Test-Time Adaptation via Online Entropy Matching: A Betting Approachcited by 22
- 2023Sequential Predictive Two-Sample and Independence Testingcited by 20
- 2022Post-selection inference for e-value based confidence intervalscited by 14
- 2022Beyond Neyman-Pearson: e-values enable hypothesis testing with a data-driven alphacited by 14
- 2022Model-X Sequential Testing for Conditional Independence via Testing by Bettingcited by 14
- 2022Anytime Valid Tests of Conditional Independence Under Model-Xcited by 11
- 2023Reducing sequential change detection to sequential estimationcited by 9
- 2024Local Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 6
- 2023Sequential change detection via backward confidence sequencescited by 3
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 11.
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- 2026Noisy but Valid: Robust Statistical Evaluation of LLMs with Imperfect Judgescited by 23
- 2025Adaptive Prediction-Powered AutoEval with Reliability and Efficiency Guaranteescited by 9
- 2026Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelinescited by 8
- 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 7
- 2026Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimationcited by 3
- 2025Do We Really Even Need Data? A Modern Look at Drawing Inference with Predicted Datacited by 2
- 2026Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shiftscited by 2
- 2025Extending Prediction-Powered Inference through Conformal Predictioncited by 1
- 2025Differentially Private E-Valuescited by 1
- 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformationcited by 0
- 2026Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Meanscited by 0
- 2026Metadata Predictability Is Not Evidence Dependence: An Intervention-Based Audit for Weak-Label Benchmarkscited by 0
4 more
- 2026Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictionscited by 0
- 2026Industrializing Prediction-Powered Inference: The GLIDE Library for Reliable GenAI and Agentic Systems Evaluationcited by 0
- 2026When Can Old Evaluations Certify a New Model? Label-Efficient Release Decisions under Evaluator Driftcited by 0
- 2026How to Run Statistics over LLM Judges and Trust the Results: Calibrated Inference for Small-Sample AI Evaluation with evalstatscited by 0
- 2026When Can Old Evaluations Certify a New Model? Label-Efficient Release Decisions under Evaluator Drift26 Sep 2026
- 2026How to Run Statistics over LLM Judges and Trust the Results: Calibrated Inference for Small-Sample AI Evaluation with evalstats20 Sep 2026
- 2026Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelines13 Jun 2026
- 2026Industrializing Prediction-Powered Inference: The GLIDE Library for Reliable GenAI and Agentic Systems Evaluation29 May 2026
- 2026Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictions27 May 2026
- 2026Metadata Predictability Is Not Evidence Dependence: An Intervention-Based Audit for Weak-Label Benchmarks22 May 2026
- 2026Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Means8 May 2026
- 2026Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimation20 Apr 2026
- 2026Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shifts2 Feb 2026
- 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformation2 Feb 2026
- 2026Noisy but Valid: Robust Statistical Evaluation of LLMs with Imperfect Judges28 Jan 2026
- 2025Do We Really Even Need Data? A Modern Look at Drawing Inference with Predicted Data5 Dec 2025
4 more
- 2025Differentially Private E-Values21 Oct 2025
- 2025Extending Prediction-Powered Inference through Conformal Prediction17 Oct 2025
- 2025Adaptive Prediction-Powered AutoEval with Reliability and Efficiency Guarantees24 May 2025
- 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inference23 May 2025
- 2026Noisy but Valid: Robust Statistical Evaluation of LLMs with Imperfect Judgescited by 23
- 2025Adaptive Prediction-Powered AutoEval with Reliability and Efficiency Guaranteescited by 9
- 2026Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelinescited by 8
- 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 7
- 2026Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimationcited by 3
- 2025Do We Really Even Need Data? A Modern Look at Drawing Inference with Predicted Datacited by 2
- 2026Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shiftscited by 2
- 2025Extending Prediction-Powered Inference through Conformal Predictioncited by 1
- 2025Differentially Private E-Valuescited by 1
- 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformationcited by 0
- 2026Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Meanscited by 0
- 2026Metadata Predictability Is Not Evidence Dependence: An Intervention-Based Audit for Weak-Label Benchmarkscited by 0
12 most cited of 15 All 15 (JSON)
- 2026When Can Old Evaluations Certify a New Model? Label-Efficient Release Decisions under Evaluator Drift26 Sep 2026
- 2026How to Run Statistics over LLM Judges and Trust the Results: Calibrated Inference for Small-Sample AI Evaluation with evalstats20 Sep 2026
- 2026Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelines13 Jun 2026
- 2026Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictions27 May 2026
- 2026Metadata Predictability Is Not Evidence Dependence: An Intervention-Based Audit for Weak-Label Benchmarks22 May 2026
- 2026Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Means8 May 2026
- 2026Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimation20 Apr 2026
- 2026Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shifts2 Feb 2026
- 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformation2 Feb 2026
- 2026Noisy but Valid: Robust Statistical Evaluation of LLMs with Imperfect Judges28 Jan 2026
- 2025Do We Really Even Need Data? A Modern Look at Drawing Inference with Predicted Data5 Dec 2025
- 2025Differentially Private E-Values21 Oct 2025
12 newest of 15 All 15 (JSON)