mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Prediction-Powered E-Values

arXiv 2502.04294 ↗First posted 6 Feb 2025stat.ML cs.LG stat.MEcited by 16

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Abstract (arXiv)

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to Z-estimation problems such as inference of means and quantiles. In this paper, we apply ideas of prediction-powered inference to e-values. By doing so, we inherit all the usual benefits of e-values -- such as anytime-validity, post-hoc validity and versatile sequential inference -- as well as greatly expand the set of inferences achievable in a prediction-powered manner. In particular, we show that every inference procedure that can be framed in terms of e-values has a prediction-powered counterpart, given by our method. We showcase the effectiveness of our framework across a wide range of inference tasks, from simple hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to more involved procedures for change-point detection and causal discovery, which were out of reach of previous techniques. Our approach is modular and easily integrable into existing algorithms, making it a compelling choice for practical applications.

Key facts. Cited by 16 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 24 of its 38 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2025.

Builds on

24 of 38 references.

References · 24

  1. 2018Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequencescited by 220
  2. 2023Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 214
  3. 2013Causal Inference in the Presence of Latent Variables and Selection Biascited by 165
  4. 2020Estimating means of bounded random variables by bettingcited by 164
  5. 2022Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inferencecited by 145
  6. 2023Causal-learn: Causal Discovery in Pythoncited by 108
  7. 2023PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 103
  8. 2024Hypothesis testing with e-valuescited by 70
  9. 2023Cross-Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 57
  10. 2024AutoEval Done Right: Using Synthetic Data for Model Evaluationcited by 53
  11. 2021Tracking the risk of a deployed model and detecting harmful distribution shiftscited by 38
  12. 2022Anytime-valid off-policy inference for contextual banditscited by 37
12 more
  1. 2021Time-uniform central limit theory and asymptotic confidence sequencescited by 29
  2. 2024Prediction-Powered Ranking of Large Language Modelscited by 29
  3. 2022E-detectors: a nonparametric framework for sequential change detectioncited by 27
  4. 2024Protected Test-Time Adaptation via Online Entropy Matching: A Betting Approachcited by 22
  5. 2023Sequential Predictive Two-Sample and Independence Testingcited by 20
  6. 2022Post-selection inference for e-value based confidence intervalscited by 14
  7. 2022Beyond Neyman-Pearson: e-values enable hypothesis testing with a data-driven alphacited by 14
  8. 2022Model-X Sequential Testing for Conditional Independence via Testing by Bettingcited by 14
  9. 2022Anytime Valid Tests of Conditional Independence Under Model-Xcited by 11
  10. 2023Reducing sequential change detection to sequential estimationcited by 9
  11. 2024Local Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 6
  12. 2023Sequential change detection via backward confidence sequencescited by 3

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 11.

16 papers.

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  1. 2026Noisy but Valid: Robust Statistical Evaluation of LLMs with Imperfect Judgescited by 23
  2. 2025Adaptive Prediction-Powered AutoEval with Reliability and Efficiency Guaranteescited by 9
  3. 2026Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelinescited by 8
  4. 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 7
  5. 2026Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimationcited by 3
  6. 2025Do We Really Even Need Data? A Modern Look at Drawing Inference with Predicted Datacited by 2
  7. 2026Prediction-Powered Risk Monitoring of Deployed Models for Detecting Harmful Distribution Shiftscited by 2
  8. 2025Extending Prediction-Powered Inference through Conformal Predictioncited by 1
  9. 2025Differentially Private E-Valuescited by 1
  10. 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformationcited by 0
  11. 2026Asymptotically Log-Optimal Bayes-Assisted Confidence Sequences for Bounded Meanscited by 0
  12. 2026Metadata Predictability Is Not Evidence Dependence: An Intervention-Based Audit for Weak-Label Benchmarkscited by 0
4 more
  1. 2026Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictionscited by 0
  2. 2026Industrializing Prediction-Powered Inference: The GLIDE Library for Reliable GenAI and Agentic Systems Evaluationcited by 0
  3. 2026When Can Old Evaluations Certify a New Model? Label-Efficient Release Decisions under Evaluator Driftcited by 0
  4. 2026How to Run Statistics over LLM Judges and Trust the Results: Calibrated Inference for Small-Sample AI Evaluation with evalstatscited by 0