mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Conformal Prediction with Learned Features

arXiv 2404.17487 ↗First posted 26 Apr 2024cs.LG cs.AI stat.MLcited by 24

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Abstract (arXiv)

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, relying on some predefined uncertainty structures. Departing from this line of thinking, we propose Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP), a framework to improve conditional validity of prediction sets through learning uncertainty-guided features from the calibration data. We implement PLCP efficiently with alternating gradient descent, utilizing off-the-shelf machine learning models. We further analyze PLCP theoretically and provide conditional guarantees for infinite and finite sample sizes. Finally, our experimental results over four real-world and synthetic datasets show the superior performance of PLCP compared to state-of-the-art methods in terms of coverage and length in both classification and regression scenarios.

Key facts. Cited by 24 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 22 of its 32 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Apr 2024.

Builds on

22 of 32 references.

References · 22

  1. 2020WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shiftscited by 1,375
  2. 2016Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regressioncited by 668
  3. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 629
  4. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 519
  5. 2021Retiring Adult: New Datasets for Fair Machine Learningcited by 449
  6. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 396
  7. 2019Predictive inference with the jackknife+cited by 211
  8. 2021Localized Conformal Prediction: A Generalized Inference Framework for Conformal Predictioncited by 114
  9. 2023Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classescited by 109
  10. 2020Robust Validation: Confident Predictions Even When Distributions Shiftcited by 82
  11. 2021Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histogramscited by 77
  12. 2020CD-split and HPD-split: efficient conformal regions in high dimensionscited by 76
10 more
  1. 2022Batch Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 67
  2. 2019Flexible distribution-free conditional predictive bands using density estimatorscited by 64
  3. 2019PAC Confidence Sets for Deep Neural Networks via Calibrated Predictioncited by 60
  4. 2021Improving Conditional Coverage via Orthogonal Quantile Regressioncited by 48
  5. 2023Conformal prediction with local weights: randomization enables local guaranteescited by 48
  6. 2023PAC Prediction Sets Under Label Shiftcited by 21
  7. 2023Adaptive Conformal Prediction by Reweighting Nonconformity Scorecited by 16
  8. 2022Prediction Sets for High-Dimensional Mixture of Experts Modelscited by 8
  9. 2023Adaptive Conformal Regression with Jackknife+ Rescaled Scorescited by 8
  10. 2021MD-split+: Practical Local Conformal Inference in High Dimensionscited by 5

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 2; 2025: 16; 2026: 6.

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  1. 2025Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Prediction: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification for Risk-Averse Agentscited by 40
  2. 2024Length Optimization in Conformal Predictioncited by 39
  3. 2024Localized Adaptive Risk Controlcited by 17
  4. 2025Rectifying Conformity Scores for Better Conditional Coveragecited by 17
  5. 2025Conformal Inference under High-Dimensional Covariate Shifts via Likelihood-Ratio Regularizationcited by 12
  6. 2025Direct Prediction Set Minimization via Bilevel Conformal Classifier Trainingcited by 8
  7. 2025Parametric Scaling Law of Tuning Bias in Conformal Predictioncited by 7
  8. 2025Conditional Conformal Risk Adaptationcited by 7
  9. 2025Exploring the Noise Robustness of Online Conformal Predictioncited by 5
  10. 2025Multi-Condition Conformal Selectioncited by 4
  11. 2025Colorful Pinball: Density-Weighted Quantile Regression for Conditional Guarantee of Conformal Predictioncited by 3
  12. 2025Conformal Prediction Adaptive to Unknown Subpopulation Shiftscited by 2
12 more
  1. 2025CLAPS: Aleatoric-Epistemic Scaling via Last-Layer Laplace for Conformal Regressioncited by 2
  2. 2026Co-optimization for Adaptive Conformal Predictioncited by 2
  3. 2025Semi-Supervised Conformal Prediction With Unlabeled Nonconformity Scorecited by 1
  4. 2025DoublyAware: Dual Planning and Policy Awareness for Temporal Difference Learning in Humanoid Locomotioncited by 1
  5. 2025Conformal Predictive Monitoring for Multi-Modal Scenarioscited by 1
  6. 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformationcited by 1
  7. 2025CONTINA: Confidence Interval for Traffic Demand Prediction with Coverage Guaranteecited by 0
  8. 2025Feature Fitted Online Conformal Prediction for Deep Time Series Forecasting Modelcited by 0
  9. 2026LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Treescited by 0
  10. 2026Multimodal Learning on Low-Quality Data with Conformal Predictive Self-Calibrationcited by 0
  11. 2026Conformalized Rate-Adaptive Sensingcited by 0
  12. 2026How Synthetic Labels Improve Conformal Prediction: A Perspective on Conditional Coveragecited by 0