mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

E-Values Expand the Scope of Conformal Prediction

arXiv 2503.13050 ↗First posted 17 Mar 2025stat.ML cs.LGcited by 23

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Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future test point cannot be too extreme relative to a calibration set. This rank-based method can be reformulated in terms of p-values. In this paper, we explore an alternative approach based on e-values, known as conformal e-prediction. E-values offer key advantages that cannot be achieved with p-values, enabling new theoretical and practical capabilities. In particular, we present three applications that leverage the unique strengths of e-values: batch anytime-valid conformal prediction, fixed-size conformal sets with data-dependent coverage, and conformal prediction under ambiguous ground truth. Overall, these examples demonstrate that e-value-based constructions provide a flexible expansion of the toolbox of conformal prediction.

Key facts. Cited by 23 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 24 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 Mar 2025.

Builds on

24 of 43 references.

References · 24

  1. 2019EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networkscited by 6,415
  2. 2018LEAF: A Benchmark for Federated Settingscited by 780
  3. 2019Conformalized Quantile Regressioncited by 620
  4. 2020Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coveragecited by 390
  5. 2020Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Predictioncited by 365
  6. 2016Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levelscited by 270
  7. 2019Human uncertainty makes classification more robustcited by 231
  8. 2018Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequencescited by 220
  9. 2020Estimating means of bounded random variables by bettingcited by 164
  10. 2023Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guaranteescited by 146
  11. 2021Learning Optimal Conformal Classifierscited by 108
  12. 2024Theoretical Foundations of Conformal Predictioncited by 96
12 more
  1. 2023Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networkscited by 79
  2. 2024Hypothesis testing with e-valuescited by 70
  3. 2022Batch Multivalid Conformal Predictioncited by 66
  4. 2022Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-valuescited by 66
  5. 2021Tight Concentrations and Confidence Sequences from the Regret of Universal Portfoliocited by 42
  6. 2023Conformal prediction under ambiguous ground truthcited by 31
  7. 2020Conformal e-predictioncited by 20
  8. 2024Enhancing Conformal Prediction Using E-Test Statisticscited by 16
  9. 2022Post-selection inference for e-value based confidence intervalscited by 14
  10. 2022Beyond Neyman-Pearson: e-values enable hypothesis testing with a data-driven alphacited by 14
  11. 2022On Confidence Sequences for Bounded Random Processes via Universal Gambling Strategiescited by 8
  12. 2022E-backtestingcited by 6

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 12; 2026: 11.

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  1. 2025WATCH: Adaptive Monitoring for AI Deployments via Weighted-Conformal Martingalescited by 13
  2. 2025Backward Conformal Predictioncited by 13
  3. 2025Adaptive Coverage Policies in Conformal Predictioncited by 4
  4. 2025Calibrating Decision Robustness via Inverse Conformal Risk Controlcited by 4
  5. 2025Symmetric Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Efficient Uncertainty Setscited by 4
  6. 2025Conformalized Decision Risk Assessmentcited by 3
  7. 2025Fundamental bounds on efficiency-confidence trade-off for transductive conformal predictioncited by 2
  8. 2025Fuzzy Prediction Sets: Conformal Prediction with E-valuescited by 2
  9. 2025When Can We Reuse a Calibration Set for Multiple Conformal Predictions?cited by 1
  10. 2025Conformal Prediction for Privacy-Preserving Machine Learningcited by 1
  11. 2025Differentially Private E-Valuescited by 1
  12. 2025E-Scores for (In)Correctness Assessment of Generative Model Outputscited by 1
11 more
  1. 2026Bulk-Calibrated Credal Ambiguity Sets: Fast, Tractable Decision Making under Out-of-Sample Contaminationcited by 1
  2. 2026Time-uniform conformal and PAC predictioncited by 1
  3. 2026Beyond Fixed False Discovery Rates: Post-Hoc Conformal Selection with E-Variablescited by 1
  4. 2026Certified Adaptive Refresh: Anytime-Valid Monitoring for Federated Conformal RAGcited by 1
  5. 2026Improving Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformationcited by 0
  6. 2026Elements of Conformal Predictioncited by 0
  7. 2026Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Modelscited by 0
  8. 2026Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Valuescited by 0
  9. 2026Bentkus-type asymptotic e-valuescited by 0
  10. 2026Rolling Conformal Prediction in Sequential Model Trainingcited by 0
  11. 2026Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Loggingcited by 0