mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Beyond Generative AI: World Models for Clinical Prediction, Counterfactuals, and Planning

arXiv 2511.16333 ↗First posted 20 Nov 2025cs.LGcited by 9

On the map: World models → Medical and surgical world models

Abstract (arXiv)

Healthcare requires AI that is predictive, reliable, and data-efficient. However, recent generative models lack physical foundation and temporal reasoning required for clinical decision support. As scaling language models show diminishing returns for grounded clinical reasoning, world models are gaining traction because they learn multimodal, temporally coherent, and action-conditioned representations that reflect the physical and causal structure of care. This paper reviews World Models for healthcare systems that learn predictive dynamics to enable multistep rollouts, counterfactual evaluation and planning. We survey recent work across three domains: (i) medical imaging and diagnostics (e.g., longitudinal tumor simulation, projection-transition modeling, and Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture i.e., JEPA-style predictive representation learning), (ii) disease progression modeling from electronic health records (generative event forecasting at scale), and (iii) robotic surgery and surgical planning (action-conditioned guidance and control). We also introduce a capability rubric: L1 temporal prediction, L2 action-conditioned prediction, L3 counterfactual rollouts for decision support, and L4 planning/control. Most reviewed systems achieve L1--L2, with fewer instances of L3 and rare L4. We identify cross-cutting gaps that limit clinical reliability; under-specified action spaces and safety constraints, weak interventional validation, incomplete multimodal state construction, and limited trajectory-level uncertainty calibration. This review outlines a research agenda for clinically robust prediction-first world models that integrate generative backbones (transformers, diffusion, VAE) with causal/mechanical foundation for safe decision support in healthcare.

Key facts. Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in Medical and surgical world models, one of 11 directions in World models. Builds on 21 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 20 Nov 2025.

Builds on

21 of 34 references.

Closest ancestors · 5

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025Medical World Model: Generative Simulation of Tumor Evolution for Treatment Planning2 Jun
  2. 2025CheXWorld: Exploring Image World Modeling for Radiograph Representation Learning18 Apr
  3. 2025EchoWorld: Learning Motion-Aware World Models for Echocardiography Probe Guidance17 Apr
  4. 2025Surgical Vision World Model3 Mar
  5. 2024World Models for General Surgical Grasping28 May

Other references · 16

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
  2. 2020Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Modelscited by 21,076
  3. 2018World Modelscited by 1,513
  4. 2019Mastering Atari, Go, Chess and Shogi by Planning with a Learned Modelcited by 1,353
  5. 2018Learning Latent Dynamics for Planning from Pixelscited by 1,264
  6. 2017A Survey on Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysiscited by 1,186
  7. 2018Recurrent World Models Facilitate Policy Evolutioncited by 785
  8. 2019Shaping Belief States with Generative Environment Models for RLcited by 66
  9. 2025Generative Medical Event Models Improve with Scalecited by 26
  10. 2024Generative AI for Synthetic Data Across Multiple Medical Modalities: A Systematic Review of Recent Developments and Challengescited by 24
  11. 2023Treatment-aware Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Longitudinal MRI Generation and Diffuse Glioma Growth Predictioncited by 19
  12. 2024Cardiac Copilot: Automatic Probe Guidance for Echocardiography with World Modelcited by 16
4 more
  1. 2024XReal: Realistic Anatomy and Pathology-Aware X-ray Generation via Controllable Diffusion Modelcited by 8
  2. 2023Multi-Task Learning Approach for Unified Biometric Estimation from Fetal Ultrasound Anomaly Scanscited by 4
  3. 2025Xray2Xray: World Model from Chest X-rays with Volumetric Contextcited by 4
  4. 2024Introducing SDICE: An Index for Assessing Diversity of Synthetic Medical Datasetscited by 3

Built on by

Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2026: 9.

9 papers.

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2025From large language models to multimodal AI: A scoping review on the potential of generative AI in medicine
  2. 2025CLARITY: Medical World Model for Guiding Treatment Decisions by Simulating Context-Aware Disease Trajectories
  3. 2026Human-Guided Agentic AI for Multimodal Clinical Prediction: Lessons from the AgentDS Healthcare Benchmark
  4. 2025Generative AI for Healthcare: Fundamentals, Challenges, and Perspectives
  5. 2026From Static Risk to Dynamic Trajectories: Toward World-Model-Inspired Clinical Prediction
  6. 2026The Patient is not a Moving Document: A World Model Training Paradigm for Longitudinal EHR
  7. 2026EHRWorld: A Patient-Centric Medical World Model for Long-Horizon Clinical Trajectories
  8. 2026Representation Before Training: A Practical Benchmark for Generative Medical Event Model Tokenization