Large language models as uncertainty-calibrated optimizers for experimental discovery
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Abstract (arXiv)
Scientific discovery increasingly depends on efficient experimental optimization to navigate vast design spaces under time and resource constraints. Traditional approaches often require extensive domain expertise and feature engineering. While large language models, with their vast scientific knowledge, circumvent the feature engineering limitations, they lack the calibrated uncertainty estimates required for high-stakes decision making. Hence, current optimization methods force a choice between domain knowledge and reliability, with no principled approach that affords both. In this work, we show that training language models through the uncertainty-aware objectives of traditional optimization methods enables their use as reliable optimizers guided by natural language. By teaching LLMs from experimental outcomes under uncertainty, we transform their overconfidence from a fundamental limitation into a precise calibration mechanism. Applied to Buchwald-Hartwig reactions, a cornerstone of pharmaceutical synthesis, our method nearly doubles the discovery rate of high-yielding reaction conditions, from 24% to 43% in 50 experimental iterations starting from 10 unsuccessful conditions. Across 19 diverse optimization problems spanning organic synthesis, materials science and catalysis, process chemistry, and molecular design, our approach ranks first on average, establishing a new paradigm for reliable, uncertainty-guided optimization with LLMs. Our approach can accelerate discovery by lowering the barrier to using powerful optimization methods, replacing the need for domain-specific feature engineering with more accessible natural language interfaces. These findings highlight that ensuring reliability through principled uncertainty quantification is critical for realizing the full potential of AI-guided experimentation.
Key facts. Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 49 of its 124 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 Apr 2025.
Builds on
49 of 124 references.
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 2; 2026: 8.
10 papers.
- 2026Agentic Bayesian Optimization through Surrogate-Augmented Autoresearchcited by 5
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- 2025Large Language Models Transform Organic Synthesis From Reaction Prediction to Automationcited by 1
- 2026Sample Efficient Generative Optimization for Molecular Designcited by 1
- 2026DASH: Decoupled Adaptive Surrogate - Acquisition Harness for Automated Bayesian Optimizationcited by 1
- 2026Epistemic Uncertainty for Test-Time Discoverycited by 0
- 2026Frontier LLMs are effective batch optimizers: Assessing reasoning models in continuous and discrete settingscited by 0
- 2026Dynamic language model representations for multi-objective reaction optimisationcited by 0
- 2026The average-farmer illusion in language-model simulations of agricultural decisionscited by 0
- 2026Bayesian Optimization with Rich Auxiliary Information via LLMscited by 0
- 2026Bayesian Optimization with Rich Auxiliary Information via LLMs16 Sep 2026
- 2026The average-farmer illusion in language-model simulations of agricultural decisions14 Sep 2026
- 2026Dynamic language model representations for multi-objective reaction optimisation10 Sep 2026
- 2026Frontier LLMs are effective batch optimizers: Assessing reasoning models in continuous and discrete settings2 Sep 2026
- 2026DASH: Decoupled Adaptive Surrogate - Acquisition Harness for Automated Bayesian Optimization1 Aug 2026
- 2026Agentic Bayesian Optimization through Surrogate-Augmented Autoresearch31 Jul 2026
- 2026Sample Efficient Generative Optimization for Molecular Design14 Jul 2026
- 2026Epistemic Uncertainty for Test-Time Discovery11 May 2026
- 2025Large Language Models Transform Organic Synthesis From Reaction Prediction to Automation7 Aug 2025
- 2025Position: Intelligent Science Laboratory Requires the Integration of Cognitive and Embodied AI24 Jun 2025