mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Can We Trust LLMs? Mitigate Overconfidence Bias in LLMs through Knowledge Transfer

arXiv 2405.16856 ↗First posted 27 May 2024cs.CLcited by 19

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Abstract (arXiv)

The study explores mitigating overconfidence bias in LLMs to improve their reliability. We introduce a knowledge transfer (KT) method utilizing chain of thoughts, where "big" LLMs impart knowledge to "small" LLMs via detailed, sequential reasoning paths. This method uses advanced reasoning of larger models to fine-tune smaller models, enabling them to produce more accurate predictions with calibrated confidence. Experimental evaluation using multiple-choice questions and sentiment analysis across diverse datasets demonstrated the KT method's superiority over the vanilla and question-answer pair (QA) fine-tuning methods. The most significant improvement in three key metrics, where the KT method outperformed the vanilla and QA methods by an average of 55.3% and 43.1%, respectively. These findings underscore the KT method's potential in enhancing model trustworthiness and accuracy, offering precise outputs with well-matched confidence levels across various contexts.

Key facts. Cited by 19 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 13 of its 17 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 27 May 2024.

Builds on

13 of 17 references.

References · 13

  1. 2018GLUE: A Multi-Task Benchmark and Analysis Platform for Natural Language Understandingcited by 4,899
  2. 2018Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challengecited by 4,886
  3. 2023QLoRA: Efficient Finetuning of Quantized LLMscited by 3,418
  4. 2021TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoodscited by 2,975
  5. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
  6. 2017RACE: Large-scale ReAding Comprehension Dataset From Examinationscited by 861
  7. 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 751
  8. 2022Large Language Models Can Self-Improvecited by 664
  9. 2023Trustworthy LLMs: a Survey and Guideline for Evaluating Large Language Models' Alignmentcited by 401
  10. 2022Mitigating Neural Network Overconfidence with Logit Normalizationcited by 252
  11. 2022Distilling Reasoning Capabilities into Smaller Language Modelscited by 158
  12. 2023Towards LLM-based Fact Verification on News Claims with a Hierarchical Step-by-Step Prompting Methodcited by 97
1 more
  1. 2023Sci-CoT: Leveraging Large Language Models for Enhanced Knowledge Distillation in Small Models for Scientific QAcited by 13

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 5; 2025: 10; 2026: 4.

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  1. 2024A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directionscited by 121
  2. 2025Beyond the Surface: Enhancing LLM-as-a-Judge Alignment with Human via Internal Representationscited by 15
  3. 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missingcited by 14
  4. 2024OpenEP: Open-Ended Future Event Predictioncited by 11
  5. 2025Do Large Language Models Know What They Are Capable Of?cited by 10
  6. 2026Agentic Uncertainty Reveals Agentic Overconfidencecited by 9
  7. 2024A Survey of Calibration Process for Black-Box LLMscited by 8
  8. 2024AdaSwitch: Adaptive Switching between Small and Large Agents for Effective Cloud-Local Collaborative Learningcited by 6
  9. 2025Measuring AI "Slop" in Textcited by 6
  10. 2024Enhancing Trust in Large Language Models via Uncertainty-Calibrated Fine-Tuningcited by 5
  11. 2025Large Language Models Are Unreliable for Cyber Threat Intelligencecited by 5
  12. 2025Visual Instruction Bottleneck Tuningcited by 5
7 more
  1. 2025"What's Up, Doc?": Analyzing How Users Seek Health Information in Large-Scale Conversational AI Datasetscited by 5
  2. 2025Honesty over Accuracy: Trustworthy Language Models through Reinforced Hesitationcited by 5
  3. 2025Option-ID Based Elimination For Multiple Choice Questionscited by 2
  4. 2026Characterizing the ability of LLMs to recapitulate Americans' distributional responses to public opinion polling questions across political issuescited by 1
  5. 2025A Context-Aware Dual-Metric Framework for Confidence Estimation in Large Language Modelscited by 0
  6. 2026Improving reasoning at inference time via uncertainty minimisationcited by 0
  7. 2026Decision Protocols in Multi-Agent Large Language Model Conversationscited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2024On Verbalized Confidence Scores for LLMs
  2. 2025SteerConf: Steering LLMs for Confidence Elicitation
  3. 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationales
  4. 2025Can You Trust an LLM with Your Life-Changing Decision? An Investigation into AI High-Stakes Responses
  5. 2026Measuring Reasoning Quality in LLMs: A Multi-Dimensional Behavioral Framework
  6. 2026Can LLM Reasoning Be Trusted? A Comparative Study: Using Human Benchmarking on Statistical Tasks
  7. 2024Confidence in the Reasoning of Large Language Models
  8. 2025Large Language Models are overconfident and amplify human bias