mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Improving reasoning at inference time via uncertainty minimisation

arXiv 2603.07159 ↗First posted 7 Mar 2026cs.AIcited by 0

On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking

Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) now exhibit strong multi-step reasoning abilities, but existing inference-time scaling methods remain computationally expensive, often relying on extensive sampling or external evaluators. We propose a principled strategy that frames reasoning as uncertainty minimisation and operates at the level of individual thoughts rather than tokens. Our method selects, at each reasoning step, the continuation that maximizes the model's self-certainty, a metric computed from its internal predictive distribution. This approach achieves significant improvement with a small number of samples, relies exclusively on model-internal signals, and applies to open-ended questions as opposed to methods like majority voting. Experiments on MATH500 and GSM8K across multiple model sizes demonstrate that thought-level self-certainty maximization consistently outperforms greedy decoding and matches or exceeds self-consistency under comparable token budgets. Cross-linguistic evaluations further indicate that the method transfers robustly beyond high-resource languages. Furthermore, analysis of self-certainty dynamics reveals that correct reasoning trajectories converge early to stable paths, suggesting that early decisions, likely associated with the planning of the reasoning process, are predictive of final accuracy. Building on this result, we show that self-certainty maximisation applied to the early steps can explain most of the performance gain and provide a simple yet efficient inference-time scaling method.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 27 of its 37 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 Mar 2026.

Builds on

27 of 37 references.

Closest ancestors · 7

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2025DynScaling: Efficient Verifier-free Inference Scaling via Dynamic and Integrated Sampling19 Jun
  2. 2025A*-Decoding: Token-Efficient Inference Scaling19 May
  3. 2025A Survey on Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models: What, How, Where, and How Well?31 Mar
  4. 2025Efficient Test-Time Scaling via Self-Calibration25 Feb
  5. 2025Scalable Best-of-N Selection for Large Language Models via Self-Certainty25 Feb
  6. 2025Rollout Roulette: A Probabilistic Inference Approach to Inference-Time Scaling of LLMs using Particle-Based Monte Carlo Methods3 Feb
  7. 2024Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters6 Aug

Other references · 20

  1. 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,302
  2. 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 9,743
  3. 2024DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Modelscited by 8,851
  4. 2025DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learningcited by 6,146
  5. 2023Let's Verify Step by Stepcited by 3,598
  6. 2024OpenAI o1 System Cardcited by 1,220
  7. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 946
  8. 2024Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Samplingcited by 946
  9. 2023Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoningcited by 668
  10. 2023Language Agent Tree Search Unifies Reasoning Acting and Planning in Language Modelscited by 551
  11. 2024GSM-Symbolic: Understanding the Limitations of Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 533
  12. 2025rStar-Math: Small LLMs Can Master Math Reasoning with Self-Evolved Deep Thinkingcited by 308
8 more
  1. 2025Towards Large Reasoning Models: A Survey of Reinforced Reasoning with Large Language Modelscited by 291
  2. 2025Learning to Reason without External Rewardscited by 199
  3. 2023Efficient Guided Generation for Large Language Modelscited by 192
  4. 2025The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Entropy Minimization in LLM Reasoningcited by 160
  5. 2023LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Modelscited by 130
  6. 2025Cognitive Foundations for Reasoning and Their Manifestation in LLMscited by 26
  7. 2024Can We Trust LLMs? Mitigate Overconfidence Bias in LLMs through Knowledge Transfercited by 19
  8. 2025Can Reasoning Models Obfuscate Reasoning? Stress-Testing Chain-of-Thought Monitorabilitycited by 18

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  1. 2026Enhancing reasoning accuracy in large language models during inference time
  2. 2025Certainty-Guided Reasoning in Large Language Models: A Dynamic Thinking Budget Approach
  3. 2026Knowing When Thinking Is Not Enough: Teaching Small Reasoning Models to Reason Beyond Their Parametric Knowledge
  4. 2026Does Inference Scaling Improve Reasoning Faithfulness? A Multi-Model Analysis of Self-Consistency Tradeoffs
  5. 2025Thought calibration: Efficient and confident test-time scaling
  6. 2024Language Models are Hidden Reasoners: Unlocking Latent Reasoning Capabilities via Self-Rewarding
  7. 2025Less is More: Improving LLM Reasoning with Minimal Test-Time Intervention
  8. 2026Dissecting Failure Dynamics in Large Language Model Reasoning