mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

SteerConf: Steering LLMs for Confidence Elicitation

arXiv 2503.02863 ↗First posted 4 Mar 2025cs.CL cs.LGcited by 20

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Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive performance across diverse domains but often suffer from overconfidence, limiting their reliability in critical applications. We propose SteerConf, a novel framework that systematically steers LLMs' confidence scores to improve their calibration and reliability. SteerConf introduces three key components: (1) a steering prompt strategy that guides LLMs to produce confidence scores in specified directions (e.g., conservative or optimistic) by leveraging prompts with varying steering levels; (2) a steered confidence consistency measure that quantifies alignment across multiple steered confidences to enhance calibration; and (3) a steered confidence calibration method that aggregates confidence scores using consistency measures and applies linear quantization for answer selection. SteerConf operates without additional training or fine-tuning, making it broadly applicable to existing LLMs. Experiments on seven benchmarks spanning professional knowledge, common sense, ethics, and reasoning tasks, using advanced LLM models (GPT-3.5, LLaMA 3, GPT-4), demonstrate that SteerConf significantly outperforms existing methods, often by a significant margin. Our findings highlight the potential of steering the confidence of LLMs to enhance their reliability for safer deployment in real-world applications.

Key facts. Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Mar 2025.

Builds on

28 of 43 references.

References · 28

  1. 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,132
  2. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,192
  3. 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,302
  4. 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 9,743
  5. 2020Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understandingcited by 7,768
  6. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
  7. 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,416
  8. 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,888
  9. 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,783
  10. 2023Is Your Code Generated by ChatGPT Really Correct? Rigorous Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code Generationcited by 1,332
  11. 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 946
  12. 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
16 more
  1. 2021Did Aristotle Use a Laptop? A Question Answering Benchmark with Implicit Reasoning Strategiescited by 736
  2. 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
  3. 2021A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networkscited by 675
  4. 2024A Survey on Large Language Models for Code Generationcited by 646
  5. 2020How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answeringcited by 439
  6. 2021Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 387
  7. 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 209
  8. 2020Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learningcited by 190
  9. 2023Large Language Models in Law: A Surveycited by 128
  10. 2023Navigating the Grey Area: How Expressions of Uncertainty and Overconfidence Affect Language Modelscited by 91
  11. 2020Large-scale Robust Deep AUC Maximization: A New Surrogate Loss and Empirical Studies on Medical Image Classificationcited by 84
  12. 2022A Close Look into the Calibration of Pre-trained Language Modelscited by 57
  13. 2023Proximity-Informed Calibration for Deep Neural Networkscited by 18
  14. 2023Great Models Think Alike: Improving Model Reliability via Inter-Model Latent Agreementcited by 10
  15. 2022Birds of a Feather Trust Together: Knowing When to Trust a Classifier via Adaptive Neighborhood Aggregationcited by 7
  16. 2019Learning to Count Objects with Few Exemplar Annotationscited by 4

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 15.

20 papers.

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  1. 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimationcited by 8
  2. 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Modelscited by 8
  3. 2025Challenges for Generative AI in Legal Reasoningcited by 7
  4. 2025BrowseConf: Confidence-Guided Test-Time Scaling for Web Agentscited by 5
  5. 2026Counterfactual Graph for Multi-Agent LLM Calibrationcited by 5
  6. 2026Semantic Calibration Prevails Where Token Confidence Fails: Benchmarking Long-Form Scientific QAcited by 3
  7. 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
  8. 2025AGENT-X: Adaptive Guideline-based Expert Network for Threshold-free AI-generated teXt detectioncited by 2
  9. 2025REHEARSE: Experiential Rehearsal for Verbal Confidence Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 2
  10. 2026Correctness-Optimized Residual Activation Lens (CORAL): Transferrable and Calibration-Aware Inference-Time Steeringcited by 2
  11. 2026Towards Generation-Efficient Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Modelscited by 2
  12. 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Modelscited by 2
8 more
  1. 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMscited by 1
  2. 2026Margin-Adaptive Confidence Ranking for Reliable LLM Judgementcited by 1
  3. 2026CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distractioncited by 1
  4. 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimationcited by 1
  5. 2026STEER: Inference-Time Risk Control via Constrained Quality-Diversity Searchcited by 0
  6. 2026Look-Closer-Then-Diagnose: Confidence-Aware Ultrasound VQA via Active Zoomingcited by 0
  7. 2026DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoningcited by 0
  8. 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Modelscited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2026ConfidenceBench: Evaluating Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models
  2. 2024Confidence Under the Hood: An Investigation into the Confidence-Probability Alignment in Large Language Models
  3. 2025Mind the Confidence Gap: Overconfidence, Calibration, and Distractor Effects in Large Language Models
  4. 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationales
  5. 2024When to Trust LLMs: Aligning Confidence with Response Quality
  6. 2026Rethinking Uncertainty Evaluation in Large Language Models
  7. 2026Know When You're Wrong: Aligning Confidence with Correctness for LLM Error Detection
  8. 2024LACIE: Listener-Aware Finetuning for Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models