SteerConf: Steering LLMs for Confidence Elicitation
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive performance across diverse domains but often suffer from overconfidence, limiting their reliability in critical applications. We propose SteerConf, a novel framework that systematically steers LLMs' confidence scores to improve their calibration and reliability. SteerConf introduces three key components: (1) a steering prompt strategy that guides LLMs to produce confidence scores in specified directions (e.g., conservative or optimistic) by leveraging prompts with varying steering levels; (2) a steered confidence consistency measure that quantifies alignment across multiple steered confidences to enhance calibration; and (3) a steered confidence calibration method that aggregates confidence scores using consistency measures and applies linear quantization for answer selection. SteerConf operates without additional training or fine-tuning, making it broadly applicable to existing LLMs. Experiments on seven benchmarks spanning professional knowledge, common sense, ethics, and reasoning tasks, using advanced LLM models (GPT-3.5, LLaMA 3, GPT-4), demonstrate that SteerConf significantly outperforms existing methods, often by a significant margin. Our findings highlight the potential of steering the confidence of LLMs to enhance their reliability for safer deployment in real-world applications.
Key facts. Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 28 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Mar 2025.
Builds on
28 of 43 references.
References · 28
- 2023GPT-4 Technical Reportcited by 18,132
- 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,192
- 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,302
- 2021Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problemscited by 9,743
- 2020Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understandingcited by 7,768
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
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- 2022Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Knowcited by 1,783
- 2023Is Your Code Generated by ChatGPT Really Correct? Rigorous Evaluation of Large Language Models for Code Generationcited by 1,332
- 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 946
- 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
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- 2021Did Aristotle Use a Laptop? A Question Answering Benchmark with Implicit Reasoning Strategiescited by 736
- 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 731
- 2021A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networkscited by 675
- 2024A Survey on Large Language Models for Code Generationcited by 646
- 2020How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answeringcited by 439
- 2021Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 387
- 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 209
- 2020Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learningcited by 190
- 2023Large Language Models in Law: A Surveycited by 128
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 15.
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- 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimationcited by 8
- 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Modelscited by 8
- 2025Challenges for Generative AI in Legal Reasoningcited by 7
- 2025BrowseConf: Confidence-Guided Test-Time Scaling for Web Agentscited by 5
- 2026Counterfactual Graph for Multi-Agent LLM Calibrationcited by 5
- 2026Semantic Calibration Prevails Where Token Confidence Fails: Benchmarking Long-Form Scientific QAcited by 3
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
- 2025AGENT-X: Adaptive Guideline-based Expert Network for Threshold-free AI-generated teXt detectioncited by 2
- 2025REHEARSE: Experiential Rehearsal for Verbal Confidence Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026Correctness-Optimized Residual Activation Lens (CORAL): Transferrable and Calibration-Aware Inference-Time Steeringcited by 2
- 2026Towards Generation-Efficient Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Modelscited by 2
8 more
- 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMscited by 1
- 2026Margin-Adaptive Confidence Ranking for Reliable LLM Judgementcited by 1
- 2026CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distractioncited by 1
- 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimationcited by 1
- 2026STEER: Inference-Time Risk Control via Constrained Quality-Diversity Searchcited by 0
- 2026Look-Closer-Then-Diagnose: Confidence-Aware Ultrasound VQA via Active Zoomingcited by 0
- 2026DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoningcited by 0
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Models16 Sep 2026
- 2026DirEAG: Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation for Calibrating Verbalized Confidence in Mathematical Reasoning21 Aug 2026
- 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation30 Jun 2026
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA25 Jun 2026
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models18 Jun 2026
- 2026CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distraction4 Jun 2026
- 2026Counterfactual Graph for Multi-Agent LLM Calibration28 May 2026
- 2026Look-Closer-Then-Diagnose: Confidence-Aware Ultrasound VQA via Active Zooming20 May 2026
- 2026Margin-Adaptive Confidence Ranking for Reliable LLM Judgement14 May 2026
- 2026Towards Generation-Efficient Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models7 May 2026
- 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Models26 Mar 2026
- 2026Correctness-Optimized Residual Activation Lens (CORAL): Transferrable and Calibration-Aware Inference-Time Steering5 Feb 2026
8 more
- 2026STEER: Inference-Time Risk Control via Constrained Quality-Diversity Search2 Feb 2026
- 2026Semantic Calibration Prevails Where Token Confidence Fails: Benchmarking Long-Form Scientific QA30 Jan 2026
- 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMs7 Jan 2026
- 2025BrowseConf: Confidence-Guided Test-Time Scaling for Web Agents27 Oct 2025
- 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation13 Oct 2025
- 2025Challenges for Generative AI in Legal Reasoning26 Aug 2025
- 2025REHEARSE: Experiential Rehearsal for Verbal Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models20 Aug 2025
- 2025AGENT-X: Adaptive Guideline-based Expert Network for Threshold-free AI-generated teXt detection21 May 2025
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQAcited by 3
- 2026Look-Closer-Then-Diagnose: Confidence-Aware Ultrasound VQA via Active Zoomingcited by 0
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Models16 Sep 2026
- 2026Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA25 Jun 2026
- 2026Look-Closer-Then-Diagnose: Confidence-Aware Ultrasound VQA via Active Zooming20 May 2026
- 2026Counterfactual Graph for Multi-Agent LLM Calibrationcited by 5
- 2026Counterfactual Graph for Multi-Agent LLM Calibration28 May 2026
- 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimationcited by 8
- 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Modelscited by 8
- 2026Semantic Calibration Prevails Where Token Confidence Fails: Benchmarking Long-Form Scientific QAcited by 3
- 2025AGENT-X: Adaptive Guideline-based Expert Network for Threshold-free AI-generated teXt detectioncited by 2
- 2025REHEARSE: Experiential Rehearsal for Verbal Confidence Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026Correctness-Optimized Residual Activation Lens (CORAL): Transferrable and Calibration-Aware Inference-Time Steeringcited by 2
- 2026Towards Generation-Efficient Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMscited by 1
- 2026Margin-Adaptive Confidence Ranking for Reliable LLM Judgementcited by 1
- 2026CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distractioncited by 1
- 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimationcited by 1
12 most cited of 13 All 13 (JSON)
- 2026CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation30 Jun 2026
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models18 Jun 2026
- 2026CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distraction4 Jun 2026
- 2026Margin-Adaptive Confidence Ranking for Reliable LLM Judgement14 May 2026
- 2026Towards Generation-Efficient Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models7 May 2026
- 2026Closing the Confidence-Faithfulness Gap in Large Language Models26 Mar 2026
- 2026Correctness-Optimized Residual Activation Lens (CORAL): Transferrable and Calibration-Aware Inference-Time Steering5 Feb 2026
- 2026STEER: Inference-Time Risk Control via Constrained Quality-Diversity Search2 Feb 2026
- 2026Semantic Calibration Prevails Where Token Confidence Fails: Benchmarking Long-Form Scientific QA30 Jan 2026
- 2026Unlocking the Pre-Trained Model as a Dual-Alignment Calibrator for Post-Trained LLMs7 Jan 2026
- 2025ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation13 Oct 2025
- 2025REHEARSE: Experiential Rehearsal for Verbal Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models20 Aug 2025
12 newest of 13 All 13 (JSON)
Similar, not cited
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- 2026ConfidenceBench: Evaluating Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models
- 2024Confidence Under the Hood: An Investigation into the Confidence-Probability Alignment in Large Language Models
- 2025Mind the Confidence Gap: Overconfidence, Calibration, and Distractor Effects in Large Language Models
- 2024SaySelf: Teaching LLMs to Express Confidence with Self-Reflective Rationales
- 2024When to Trust LLMs: Aligning Confidence with Response Quality
- 2026Rethinking Uncertainty Evaluation in Large Language Models
- 2026Know When You're Wrong: Aligning Confidence with Correctness for LLM Error Detection
- 2024LACIE: Listener-Aware Finetuning for Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models