A Survey of Calibration Process for Black-Box LLMs
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance in semantic understanding and generation, yet accurately assessing their output reliability remains a significant challenge. While numerous studies have explored calibration techniques, they primarily focus on White-Box LLMs with accessible parameters. Black-Box LLMs, despite their superior performance, pose heightened requirements for calibration techniques due to their API-only interaction constraints. Although recent researches have achieved breakthroughs in black-box LLMs calibration, a systematic survey of these methodologies is still lacking. To bridge this gap, we presents the first comprehensive survey on calibration techniques for black-box LLMs. We first define the Calibration Process of LLMs as comprising two interrelated key steps: Confidence Estimation and Calibration. Second, we conduct a systematic review of applicable methods within black-box settings, and provide insights on the unique challenges and connections in implementing these key steps. Furthermore, we explore typical applications of Calibration Process in black-box LLMs and outline promising future research directions, providing new perspectives for enhancing reliability and human-machine alignment. This is our GitHub link: https://github.com/LiangruXie/Calibration-Process-in-Black-Box-LLMs
Key facts. Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 81 of its 128 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 Dec 2024.
Builds on
81 of 128 references.
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Citing papers per year: 2025: 5; 2026: 3.
8 papers.
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- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidencecited by 65
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- 2025Beyond Accuracy: The Role of Calibration in Self-Improving Large Language Modelscited by 7
- 2025Training LLM Agents to Empower Humanscited by 3
- 2026A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Modelscited by 2
- 2026The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Large Language Models: An Empirical Study of Confidence Calibrationcited by 0
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- 2026Can You Trust the Confidence? ConfBench for Vision-Language Models on Document Extraction3 Aug 2026
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- 2026The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Large Language Models: An Empirical Study of Confidence Calibration12 Feb 2026
- 2025Training LLM Agents to Empower Humans15 Oct 2025
- 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missing11 Jul 2025
- 2025Maximizing Confidence Alone Improves Reasoning28 May 2025
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidence20 May 2025
- 2025Beyond Accuracy: The Role of Calibration in Self-Improving Large Language Models3 Apr 2025