Predictive Control for Autonomous Driving with Uncertain, Multi-modal Predictions

We propose a Stochastic MPC (SMPC) formulation for path planning with autonomous vehicles in scenarios involving multiple agents with multi-modal predictions. The multi-modal predictions capture the uncertainty of urban driving in distinct modes/maneuvers (e.g., yield, keep speed) and driving trajectories (e.g., speed, turning radius), which are incorporated for multi-modal collision avoidance chance constraints for path planning. In the presence of multi-modal uncertainties, it is challenging to reliably compute feasible path planning solutions at real-time frequencies (≥ 10 Hz). Our main technological contribution is a convex SMPC formulation that simultaneously (1) optimizes over parameterized feedback policies and (2) allocates risk levels for each mode of the prediction. The use of feedback policies and risk allocation enhances the feasibility and performance of the SMPC formulation against multi-modal predictions with large uncertainty. We evaluate our approach via simulations and road experiments with a full-scale vehicle interacting in closed-loop with virtual vehicles. We consider distinct, multi-modal driving scenarios: 1) Negotiating a traffic light and a fast, tailgating agent, 2) Executing an unprotected left turn at a traffic intersection, and 3) Changing lanes in the presence of multiple agents. For all of these scenarios, our approach reliably computes multi-modal solutions to the path-planning problem at real-time frequencies.