Learning Counterfactual Representations for Estimating Individual Dose-Response Curves
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Abstract (arXiv)
Estimating what would be an individual's potential response to varying levels of exposure to a treatment is of high practical relevance for several important fields, such as healthcare, economics and public policy. However, existing methods for learning to estimate counterfactual outcomes from observational data are either focused on estimating average dose-response curves, or limited to settings with only two treatments that do not have an associated dosage parameter. Here, we present a novel machine-learning approach towards learning counterfactual representations for estimating individual dose-response curves for any number of treatments with continuous dosage parameters with neural networks. Building on the established potential outcomes framework, we introduce performance metrics, model selection criteria, model architectures, and open benchmarks for estimating individual dose-response curves. Our experiments show that the methods developed in this work set a new state-of-the-art in estimating individual dose-response.
Key facts. Cited by 90 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 3 Feb 2019.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 9; 2022: 23; 2023: 16; 2024: 24; 2025: 9; 2026: 9.
90 papers.
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- 2022DESCN: Deep Entire Space Cross Networks for Individual Treatment Effect Estimationcited by 16
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- 2022Heterogeneous Treatment Effect with Trained Kernels of the Nadaraya-Watson Regressioncited by 4
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- 2025In-silico biological discovery with large perturbation modelscited by 4
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50 most cited of 90 All 90 (JSON)
- 2026Weighted Spline-Expanded Networks with Distributional Balancing for Continuous Treatment Effects27 Sep 2026
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- 2026From Multimodal Observation to Interpretable Suggestions: Counterfactual Time-Expanded Relational Modeling of Surgical Teams24 Aug 2026
- 2026Attention-Based Estimation of the Individual Treatment Benefit Probability under Dose Variation11 Jun 2026
- 2026Causal Foundation Models with Continuous Treatments14 May 2026
- 2026Estimating Continuous Treatment Effects with Two-Stage Kernel Ridge Regression15 Apr 2026
- 2026Orthogonal Uplift Learning with Permutation-Invariant Representations for Combinatorial Treatments23 Feb 2026
- 2026Jointly Optimizing Debiased CTR and Uplift for Coupons Marketing: A Unified Causal Framework13 Feb 2026
- 2025Estimating Treatment Effects in Networks under Unknown Exposure Mappings24 Oct 2025
- 2025CausalKANs: interpretable treatment effect estimation with Kolmogorov-Arnold networks26 Sep 2025
- 2025Multi-Treatment-DML: Causal Estimation for Multi-Dimensional Continuous Treatments with Monotonicity Constraints in Personal Loan Risk Optimization4 Aug 2025
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- 2025Leveraging a Simulator for Learning Causal Representations from Post-Treatment Covariates for CATE7 Feb 2025
- 2024A Deep Subgrouping Framework for Precision Drug Repurposing via Emulating Clinical Trials on Real-world Patient Data29 Dec 2024
- 2024Uplift modeling with continuous treatments: A predict-then-optimize approach12 Dec 2024
- 2024CausalMob: Causal Human Mobility Prediction with LLMs-derived Human Intentions toward Public Events3 Dec 2024
- 2024I See, Therefore I Do: Estimating Causal Effects for Image Treatments28 Nov 2024
- 2024Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes11 Oct 2024
- 2024Multi-Treatment Multi-Task Uplift Modeling for Enhancing User Growth23 Aug 2024
- 2024Causal Inference with Complex Treatments: A Survey19 Jul 2024
- 2024Conformal Prediction for Causal Effects of Continuous Treatments3 Jul 2024
- 2024Stable Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation across Out-of-Distribution Populations3 Jul 2024
- 2024Proximity Matters: Local Proximity Enhanced Balancing for Treatment Effect Estimation1 Jul 2024
- 2024Estimating Long-term Heterogeneous Dose-response Curve: Generalization Bound Leveraging Optimal Transport Weights27 Jun 2024
- 2024Sources of Gain: Decomposing Performance in Conditional Average Dose Response Estimation12 Jun 2024
- 2024PairNet: Training with Observed Pairs to Estimate Individual Treatment Effect6 Jun 2024
- 2024Disentangled Representation via Variational AutoEncoder for Continuous Treatment Effect Estimation4 Jun 2024
- 2024DISCRET: Synthesizing Faithful Explanations For Treatment Effect Estimation2 Jun 2024
- 2024Learning Decision Policies with Instrumental Variables through Double Machine Learning14 May 2024
- 2024Causal-StoNet: Causal Inference for High-Dimensional Complex Data27 Mar 2024
- 2024Contrastive Balancing Representation Learning for Heterogeneous Dose-Response Curves Estimation21 Mar 2024
- 2024Pareto-Optimal Estimation and Policy Learning on Short-term and Long-term Treatment Effects5 Mar 2024
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- 2024Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation with subpopulation identification for personalized medicine in opioid use disorder30 Jan 2024
- 2024Causal Machine Learning for Cost-Effective Allocation of Development Aid30 Jan 2024
- 2024Continuous Treatment Effect Estimation Using Gradient Interpolation and Kernel Smoothing27 Jan 2024
- 2024SubgroupTE: Advancing Treatment Effect Estimation with Subgroup Identification22 Jan 2024
- 2023Estimation of individual causal effects in network setup for multiple treatments18 Dec 2023
- 2023Adversarially Balanced Representation for Continuous Treatment Effect Estimation17 Dec 2023
- 2023SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment1 Dec 2023
- 2023A Review and Roadmap of Deep Causal Model from Different Causal Structures and Representations2 Nov 2023
- 2023Optimal Transport for Treatment Effect Estimation27 Oct 2023
- 2023Using representation balancing to learn conditional-average dose responses from clustered data7 Sep 2023
- 2023A Causal Perspective on Loan Pricing: Investigating the Impacts of Selection Bias on Identifying Bid-Response Functions7 Sep 2023
- 2023De-confounding Representation Learning for Counterfactual Inference on Continuous Treatment via Generative Adversarial Network24 Jul 2023
50 newest of 90 All 90 (JSON)
- 2024Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomescited by 73
- 2021VCNet and Functional Targeted Regularization For Learning Causal Effects of Continuous Treatmentscited by 59
- 2021Causal Effect Inference for Structured Treatmentscited by 38
- 2023Optimal Transport for Treatment Effect Estimationcited by 32
- 2022CausalBench: A Large-scale Benchmark for Network Inference from Single-cell Perturbation Datacited by 29
- 2022Exploring Transformer Backbones for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimationcited by 25
- 2022Normalizing Flows for Interventional Density Estimationcited by 21
- 2022Transfer Learning on Heterogeneous Feature Spaces for Treatment Effects Estimationcited by 21
- 2022Scalable Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Causal-Effect Estimates of Continuous-Valued Interventionscited by 20
- 2024Conformal Prediction for Causal Effects of Continuous Treatmentscited by 19
- 2021GeneDisco: A Benchmark for Experimental Design in Drug Discoverycited by 18
- 2022DESCN: Deep Entire Space Cross Networks for Individual Treatment Effect Estimationcited by 16
12 most cited of 90 All 90 (JSON)
- 2026Weighted Spline-Expanded Networks with Distributional Balancing for Continuous Treatment Effects27 Sep 2026
- 2026CAFE: Counterfactual Prediction via Fast Posterior Estimation26 Sep 2026
- 2026Causal Foundation Models2 Sep 2026
- 2026From Multimodal Observation to Interpretable Suggestions: Counterfactual Time-Expanded Relational Modeling of Surgical Teams24 Aug 2026
- 2026Attention-Based Estimation of the Individual Treatment Benefit Probability under Dose Variation11 Jun 2026
- 2026Causal Foundation Models with Continuous Treatments14 May 2026
- 2026Estimating Continuous Treatment Effects with Two-Stage Kernel Ridge Regression15 Apr 2026
- 2026Orthogonal Uplift Learning with Permutation-Invariant Representations for Combinatorial Treatments23 Feb 2026
- 2026Jointly Optimizing Debiased CTR and Uplift for Coupons Marketing: A Unified Causal Framework13 Feb 2026
- 2025Estimating Treatment Effects in Networks under Unknown Exposure Mappings24 Oct 2025
- 2025CausalKANs: interpretable treatment effect estimation with Kolmogorov-Arnold networks26 Sep 2025
- 2025Multi-Treatment-DML: Causal Estimation for Multi-Dimensional Continuous Treatments with Monotonicity Constraints in Personal Loan Risk Optimization4 Aug 2025
12 newest of 90 All 90 (JSON)