mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Bridging Past and Future: Distribution-Aware Alignment for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv 2509.14181 ↗First posted 17 Sep 2025cs.LG cs.AIcited by 20

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Abstract (arXiv)

Although contrastive and other representation-learning methods have long been explored in vision and NLP, their adoption in modern time series forecasters remains limited. We believe they hold strong promise for this domain. To unlock this potential, we explicitly align past and future representations, thereby bridging the distributional gap between input histories and future targets. To this end, we introduce TimeAlign, a lightweight, plug-and-play framework that establishes a new representation paradigm, distinct from contrastive learning, by aligning auxiliary features via a simple reconstruction task and feeding them back into any base forecaster. Extensive experiments across eight benchmarks verify its superior performance. Further studies indicate that the gains arise primarily from correcting frequency mismatches between historical inputs and future outputs. Additionally, we provide two theoretical justifications for how reconstruction improves forecasting generalization and how alignment increases the mutual information between learned representations and predicted targets. The code is available at https://github.com/TROUBADOUR000/TimeAlign.

Key facts. Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 44 of its 74 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 17 Sep 2025.

Builds on

44 of 74 references.

References · 44

  1. 2014Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimizationcited by 37,240
  2. 2019PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Librarycited by 20,305
  3. 2018Representation Learning with Contrastive Predictive Codingcited by 7,777
  4. 2019Momentum Contrast for Unsupervised Visual Representation Learningcited by 7,513
  5. 2020Exploring Simple Siamese Representation Learningcited by 2,866
  6. 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,169
  7. 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 2,039
  8. 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,676
  9. 2022Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?cited by 1,424
  10. 2022FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecastingcited by 1,210
  11. 2022TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysiscited by 1,058
  12. 2023iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecastingcited by 931
32 more
  1. 2016Deep Variational Information Bottleneckcited by 930
  2. 2024Representation Alignment for Generation: Training Diffusion Transformers Is Easier Than You Thinkcited by 703
  3. 2020Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networkscited by 566
  4. 2021TS2Vec: Towards Universal Representation of Time Seriescited by 471
  5. 2025Reconstruction vs. Generation: Taming Optimization Dilemma in Latent Diffusion Modelscited by 393
  6. 2024TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecastingcited by 346
  7. 2024TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methodscited by 249
  8. 2025REPA-E: Unlocking VAE for End-to-End Tuning with Latent Diffusion Transformerscited by 225
  9. 2024DUET: Dual Clustering Enhanced Multivariate Time Series Forecastingcited by 107
  10. 2024CATCH: Channel-Aware multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection via Frequency Patchingcited by 94
  11. 2023Dish-TS: A General Paradigm for Alleviating Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecastingcited by 93
  12. 2024FreDF: Learning to Forecast in the Frequency Domaincited by 79
  13. 2024TSLANet: Rethinking Transformers for Time Series Representation Learningcited by 74
  14. 2025TimeFilter: Patch-Specific Spatial-Temporal Graph Filtration for Time Series Forecastingcited by 64
  15. 2025TAB: Unified Benchmarking of Time Series Anomaly Detection Methodscited by 60
  16. 2025No Other Representation Component Is Needed: Diffusion Transformers Can Provide Representation Guidance by Themselvescited by 56
  17. 2025Rethinking Irregular Time Series Forecasting: A Simple yet Effective Baselinecited by 55
  18. 2023TimesURL: Self-supervised Contrastive Learning for Universal Time Series Representation Learningcited by 52
  19. 2023MSGNet: Learning Multi-Scale Inter-Series Correlations for Multivariate Time Series Forecastingcited by 50
  20. 2024Revitalizing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Learnable Decomposition with Inter-Series Dependencies and Intra-Series Variations Modelingcited by 44
  21. 2024A Unified Replay-based Continuous Learning Framework for Spatio-Temporal Prediction on Streaming Datacited by 39
  22. 2024Adaptive Multi-Scale Decomposition Framework for Time Series Forecastingcited by 34
  23. 2025Diffusion Models without Classifier-free Guidancecited by 33
  24. 2025FinTSB: A Comprehensive and Practical Benchmark for Financial Time Series Forecastingcited by 24
  25. 2025Time-o1: Time-Series Forecasting Needs Transformed Label Alignmentcited by 22
  26. 2023An Accurate and Interpretable Framework for Trustworthy Process Monitoringcited by 18
  27. 2025FinMamba: Market-Aware Graph Enhanced Multi-Level Mamba for Stock Movement Predictioncited by 11
  28. 2025CMoS: Rethinking Time Series Prediction Through the Lens of Chunk-wise Spatial Correlationscited by 9
  29. 2025TVNet: A Novel Time Series Analysis Method Based on Dynamic Convolution and 3D-Variationcited by 8
  30. 2025Utilizing Strategic Pre-training to Reduce Overfitting: Baguan -- A Pre-trained Weather Forecasting Modelcited by 7
  31. 2024Mitigating Time Discretization Challenges with WeatherODE: A Sandwich Physics-Driven Neural ODE for Weather Forecastingcited by 6
  32. 2025DeepFilter: A Transformer-style Framework for Accurate and Efficient Process Monitoringcited by 5

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2025: 4; 2026: 16.

20 papers.

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  1. 2025Aurora: Towards Universal Generative Multimodal Time Series Forecastingcited by 29
  2. 2026NeuReasoner: Towards Explainable, Controllable, and Unified Reasoning via Mixture-of-Neuronscited by 14
  3. 2025DistDF: Time-Series Forecasting Needs Joint-Distribution Wasserstein Alignmentcited by 13
  4. 2026GCGNet: Graph-Consistent Generative Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variablescited by 13
  5. 2025Glocal Information Bottleneck for Time Series Imputationcited by 9
  6. 2025Revisiting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Missing Valuescited by 7
  7. 2026From Observations to States: Latent Time Series Forecastingcited by 6
  8. 2026TRACE: Trajectory Recovery for Continuous Mechanism Evolution in Causal Representation Learningcited by 4
  9. 2026PHAT: Modeling Period Heterogeneity for Multivariate Time Series Forecastingcited by 3
  10. 2026Into the ORBIT for Time Series: Training Regimes for Foundation Modelscited by 3
  11. 2026LastOPD: Taming Collapse in Latent On-Policy Distillationcited by 2
  12. 2026Forecasting with Guidance: Representation-Level Supervision for Time Series Forecastingcited by 1
8 more
  1. 2026Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecastingcited by 1
  2. 2026Deep Time-Series Forecasting in 10 Years: A Surveycited by 0
  3. 2026GatedLinear: Adaptive Routing of Complementary Linear Bases for Time Series Forecastingcited by 0
  4. 2026When Tomorrow Becomes Today: Self-Evolving Policies for Agentic Time-Series Forecastingcited by 0
  5. 2026TimeEvo: Failure-Driven Self-Evolution of a Time Series Agentcited by 0
  6. 2026WorldTS: World Modeling for Multimodal Covariate-aware Time Series Forecastingcited by 0
  7. 2026XMatch: Enhancing Covariate-Aware Time Series Forecasting through Tree-Structured Exogenous Matchingcited by 0
  8. 2026CTIA-ODE: Continuous-Time Inter-Variable Attention for Long-Term Time Series Forecastingcited by 0