Integral Imprecise Probability Metrics
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Abstract (arXiv)
Quantifying differences between probability distributions is fundamental to statistics and machine learning, primarily for comparing statistical uncertainty. In contrast, epistemic uncertainty -- due to incomplete knowledge -- requires richer representations than those offered by classical probability. Imprecise probability (IP) theory offers such models, capturing ambiguity and partial belief. This has driven growing interest in imprecise probabilistic machine learning (IPML), where inference and decision-making rely on broader uncertainty models -- highlighting the need for metrics beyond classical probability. This work introduces the integral imprecise probability metric framework, a Choquet integral-based generalisation of classical integral probability metrics to the setting of capacities -- a broad class of IP models encompassing many existing ones, including lower probabilities, probability intervals, belief functions, and more. Theoretically, we establish conditions under which IIPM serves as a valid metric and metrises a form of weak convergence of capacities. Practically, IIPM not only enables comparison across different IP models but also supports the quantification of epistemic uncertainty~(EU) within a single IP model. In particular, by comparing an IP model with its conjugate, IIPM gives rise to a new class of epistemic uncertainty measures -- Maximum Mean Imprecision -- which satisfy key axiomatic properties proposed in the uncertainty quantification literature. We validate MMI through selective classification experiments, demonstrating strong empirical performance against established EU measures, and outperforming them when classical methods struggle to scale to a large number of classes. Our work advances both theory and practice in Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning, offering a principled framework for comparing and quantifying epistemic uncertainty under imprecision.
Key facts. Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 48 of its 156 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 May 2025.
Builds on
48 of 156 references.
References · 48
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36 more
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2025: 3; 2026: 8.
11 papers.
- 2025Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classificationscited by 8
- 2026Learning Credal Ensembles via Distributionally Robust Optimizationcited by 7
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilitiescited by 5
- 2026Beyond Prediction-Set Size: Quantifying Conformal Uncertainty through Credal Geometrycited by 4
- 2026Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approachcited by 2
- 2025When Do Credal Sets Stabilize? Fixed-Point Theorems for Credal Set Updatescited by 1
- 2025Maxitive Donsker-Varadhan Formulation for Possibilistic Variational Inferencecited by 1
- 2026Set-based v.s. Distribution-based Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty: A Comparative Studycited by 1
- 2026Efficient Credal Prediction through Decalibrationcited by 1
- 2026Upper Entropy for 2-Monotone Lower Probabilitiescited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty quantification for trustworthy deep learning: Methods and measurescited by 0
- 2026Uncertainty quantification for trustworthy deep learning: Methods and measures30 Jul 2026
- 2026Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach28 Mar 2026
- 2026Upper Entropy for 2-Monotone Lower Probabilities23 Mar 2026
- 2026Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilities11 Mar 2026
- 2026Efficient Credal Prediction through Decalibration9 Mar 2026
- 2026Set-based v.s. Distribution-based Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty: A Comparative Study26 Feb 2026
- 2026Learning Credal Ensembles via Distributionally Robust Optimization9 Feb 2026
- 2026Beyond Prediction-Set Size: Quantifying Conformal Uncertainty through Credal Geometry2 Feb 2026
- 2025Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications5 Dec 2025
- 2025Maxitive Donsker-Varadhan Formulation for Possibilistic Variational Inference26 Nov 2025
- 2025When Do Credal Sets Stabilize? Fixed-Point Theorems for Credal Set Updates6 Oct 2025