Distributionally Robust Statistical Verification with Imprecise Neural Networks
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
A particularly challenging problem in AI safety is providing guarantees on the behavior of high-dimensional autonomous systems. Verification approaches centered around reachability analysis fail to scale, and purely statistical approaches are constrained by the distributional assumptions about the sampling process. Instead, we pose a distributionally robust version of the statistical verification problem for black-box systems, where our performance guarantees hold over a large family of distributions. This paper proposes a novel approach based on uncertainty quantification using concepts from imprecise probabilities. A central piece of our approach is an ensemble technique called Imprecise Neural Networks, which provides the uncertainty quantification. Additionally, we solve the allied problem of exploring the input set using active learning. The active learning uses an exhaustive neural-network verification tool Sherlock to collect samples. An evaluation on multiple physical simulators in the openAI gym Mujoco environments with reinforcement-learned controllers demonstrates that our approach can provide useful and scalable guarantees for high-dimensional systems.
Key facts. Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 45 of its 85 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Aug 2023.
Builds on
45 of 85 references.
References · 45
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
- 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,888
- 2016OpenAI Gymcited by 1,684
- 2017Reluplex: An Efficient SMT Solver for Verifying Deep Neural Networkscited by 739
- 2021Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 387
- 2021Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shiftcited by 360
- 2022VOS: Learning What You Don't Know by Virtual Outlier Synthesiscited by 300
- 2018When Gaussian Process Meets Big Data: A Review of Scalable GPscited by 205
- 2020NNV: The Neural Network Verification Tool for Deep Neural Networks and Learning-Enabled Cyber-Physical Systemscited by 128
- 2018High-Quality Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning: A Distribution-Free, Ensembled Approachcited by 117
- 2020Robust Validation: Confident Predictions Even When Distributions Shiftcited by 82
- 2020Distribution-free binary classification: prediction sets, confidence intervals and calibrationcited by 79
33 more
- 2020A Survey of Algorithms for Black-Box Safety Validation of Cyber-Physical Systemscited by 71
- 2019An Abstraction-Based Framework for Neural Network Verificationcited by 68
- 2019Uncertainty Quantification with Statistical Guarantees in End-to-End Autonomous Driving Controlcited by 60
- 2020Probabilistic Safety for Bayesian Neural Networkscited by 41
- 2021Sample-Efficient Safety Assurances using Conformal Predictioncited by 41
- 2021OVERT: An Algorithm for Safety Verification of Neural Network Control Policies for Nonlinear Systemscited by 37
- 2019Statistical Guarantees for the Robustness of Bayesian Neural Networkscited by 35
- 2022Conformal Prediction for STL Runtime Verificationcited by 34
- 2022A System-Level View on Out-of-Distribution Data in Roboticscited by 33
- 2020DeepAbstract: Neural Network Abstraction for Accelerating Verificationcited by 31
- 2021Learning Representations for Pixel-based Control: What Matters and Why?cited by 24
- 2020On Linear Optimization over Wasserstein Ballscited by 23
- 2023Multi-Agent Reachability Calibration with Conformal Predictioncited by 23
- 2020PAC Confidence Predictions for Deep Neural Network Classifierscited by 21
- 2019Probabilistic Verification and Reachability Analysis of Neural Networks via Semidefinite Programmingcited by 14
- 2020Interval Neural Networks: Uncertainty Scorescited by 14
- 2021Pointwise Feasibility of Gaussian Process-based Safety-Critical Control under Model Uncertaintycited by 13
- 2023A Novel Bayes' Theorem for Upper Probabilitiescited by 13
- 2021A Simple and Efficient Sampling-based Algorithm for General Reachability Analysiscited by 12
- 2017Judicious Judgment Meets Unsettling Updating: Dilation, Sure Loss, and Simpson's Paradoxcited by 8
- 2020Statistical Verification of Autonomous Systems using Surrogate Models and Conformal Inferencecited by 8
- 2021Neural Predictive Monitoring under Partial Observabilitycited by 7
- 2019VERIFAI: A Toolkit for the Design and Analysis of Artificial Intelligence-Based Systemscited by 6
- 2019Scenario-Based Verification of Uncertain MDPscited by 6
- 2022An Evidential Neural Network Model for Regression Based on Random Fuzzy Numberscited by 6
- 2022Risk Verification of Stochastic Systems with Neural Network Controllerscited by 6
- 2021When Cyber-Physical Systems Meet AI: A Benchmark, an Evaluation, and a Way Forwardcited by 5
- 2022Discovering Closed-Loop Failures of Vision-Based Controllers via Reachability Analysiscited by 5
- 2022From Intelligent Agents to Trustworthy Human-Centred Multiagent Systemscited by 4
- 2020Probabilistic Conformance for Cyber-Physical Systemscited by 2
- 2018Context-Specific Validation of Data-Driven Modelscited by 1
- 2021Quantitative Verification with Adaptive Uncertainty Reductioncited by 1
- 2022HiddenGems: Efficient safety boundary detection with active learningcited by 1
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2023: 2; 2024: 4; 2025: 4; 2026: 2.
12 papers.
- 2024Conformalized Credal Regions for Classification with Ambiguous Ground Truthcited by 19
- 2024Statistical Multicriteria Benchmarking via the GSD-Frontcited by 11
- 2025Integral Imprecise Probability Metricscited by 11
- 2024Uncertainty-based Offline Variational Bayesian Reinforcement Learning for Robustness under Diverse Data Corruptionscited by 8
- 2024A Unified Approach Towards Active Learning and Out-of-Distribution Detectioncited by 7
- 2025Conformal Prediction Regions are Imprecise Highest Density Regionscited by 7
- 2023Reasoning with random sets: An agenda for the futurecited by 6
- 2023Bridging Dimensions: Confident Reachability for High-Dimensional Controllerscited by 5
- 2026Quantifying Epistemic Predictive Uncertainty in Conformal Predictioncited by 4
- 2025Adaptive Conformal Guidance for Learning under Uncertaintycited by 2
- 2025When Do Credal Sets Stabilize? Fixed-Point Theorems for Credal Set Updatescited by 1
- 2026Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 0
- 2026Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification12 May 2026
- 2026Quantifying Epistemic Predictive Uncertainty in Conformal Prediction2 Feb 2026
- 2025When Do Credal Sets Stabilize? Fixed-Point Theorems for Credal Set Updates6 Oct 2025
- 2025Integral Imprecise Probability Metrics22 May 2025
- 2025Adaptive Conformal Guidance for Learning under Uncertainty23 Feb 2025
- 2025Conformal Prediction Regions are Imprecise Highest Density Regions10 Feb 2025
- 2024Conformalized Credal Regions for Classification with Ambiguous Ground Truth7 Nov 2024
- 2024Uncertainty-based Offline Variational Bayesian Reinforcement Learning for Robustness under Diverse Data Corruptions1 Nov 2024
- 2024Statistical Multicriteria Benchmarking via the GSD-Front6 Jun 2024
- 2024A Unified Approach Towards Active Learning and Out-of-Distribution Detection18 May 2024
- 2023Reasoning with random sets: An agenda for the future19 Dec 2023
- 2023Bridging Dimensions: Confident Reachability for High-Dimensional Controllers8 Nov 2023