Bridging the Gap Between Multi-Step and One-Shot Trajectory Prediction via Self-Supervision
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Abstract (arXiv)
Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is an unsolved problem in autonomous driving with various open research questions. State-of-the-art approaches regress trajectories either in a one-shot or step-wise manner. Although one-shot approaches are usually preferred for their simplicity, they relinquish powerful self-supervision schemes that can be constructed by chaining multiple time-steps. We address this issue by proposing a middle-ground where multiple trajectory segments are chained together. Our proposed Multi-Branch Self-Supervised Predictor receives additional training on new predictions starting at intermediate future segments. In addition, the model 'imagines' the latent context and 'predicts the past' while combining multi-modal trajectories in a tree-like manner. We deliberately keep aspects such as interaction and environment modeling simplistic and nevertheless achieve competitive results on the INTERACTION dataset. Furthermore, we investigate the sparsely explored uncertainty estimation of deterministic predictors. We find positive correlations between the prediction error and two proposed metrics, which might pave way for determining prediction confidence.
Key facts. Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 36 of its 45 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 6 Jun 2023.
Builds on
36 of 45 references.
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 4; 2025: 2.
7 papers.
- 2023Conditional Unscented Autoencoders for Trajectory Predictioncited by 7
- 2024Quantifying Uncertainty in Motion Prediction with Variational Bayesian Mixturecited by 6
- 2024Stochasticity in Motion: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Trajectory Predictioncited by 5
- 2024Motion Forecasting via Model-Based Risk Minimizationcited by 4
- 2024Interpretable Interaction Modeling for Trajectory Prediction via Agent Selection and Physical Coefficientcited by 1
- 2025Driving is a Game: Combining Planning and Prediction with Bayesian Iterative Best Responsecited by 1
- 2025Deep Learning to Identify the Spatio-Temporal Cascading Effects of Train Delays in a High-Density Networkcited by 0
- 2025Driving is a Game: Combining Planning and Prediction with Bayesian Iterative Best Response3 Dec 2025
- 2025Deep Learning to Identify the Spatio-Temporal Cascading Effects of Train Delays in a High-Density Network10 Oct 2025
- 2024Stochasticity in Motion: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Trajectory Prediction2 Oct 2024
- 2024Motion Forecasting via Model-Based Risk Minimization16 Sep 2024
- 2024Interpretable Interaction Modeling for Trajectory Prediction via Agent Selection and Physical Coefficient21 May 2024
- 2024Quantifying Uncertainty in Motion Prediction with Variational Bayesian Mixture4 Apr 2024
- 2023Conditional Unscented Autoencoders for Trajectory Prediction30 Oct 2023