mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Control-Aware Prediction Objectives for Autonomous Driving

arXiv 2204.13319 ↗First posted 28 Apr 2022cs.LG cs.ROcited by 18

On the map: End-to-end autonomous driving → End-to-end system architecture

Abstract (arXiv)

Autonomous vehicle software is typically structured as a modular pipeline of individual components (e.g., perception, prediction, and planning) to help separate concerns into interpretable sub-tasks. Even when end-to-end training is possible, each module has its own set of objectives used for safety assurance, sample efficiency, regularization, or interpretability. However, intermediate objectives do not always align with overall system performance. For example, optimizing the likelihood of a trajectory prediction module might focus more on easy-to-predict agents than safety-critical or rare behaviors (e.g., jaywalking). In this paper, we present control-aware prediction objectives (CAPOs), to evaluate the downstream effect of predictions on control without requiring the planner be differentiable. We propose two types of importance weights that weight the predictive likelihood: one using an attention model between agents, and another based on control variation when exchanging predicted trajectories for ground truth trajectories. Experimentally, we show our objectives improve overall system performance in suburban driving scenarios using the CARLA simulator.

Key facts. Cited by 18 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Placed in End-to-end system architecture, one of 9 directions in End-to-end autonomous driving. Builds on 20 of its 38 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 28 Apr 2022.

Builds on

20 of 38 references.

References · 20

  1. 2017Attention Is All You Needcited by 60,361
  2. 2017CARLA: An Open Urban Driving Simulatorcited by 2,449
  3. 2019Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Mapscited by 732
  4. 2021Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Datasetcited by 537
  5. 2020One Thousand and One Hours: Self-driving Motion Prediction Datasetcited by 240
  6. 2020Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Value-Targeted Regressioncited by 234
  7. 2020Perceive, Predict, and Plan: Safe Motion Planning Through Interpretable Semantic Representationscited by 153
  8. 2020Understanding and Improving Information Transfer in Multi-Task Learningcited by 114
  9. 2020Objective Mismatch in Model-based Reinforcement Learningcited by 96
  10. 2019Multi-Head Attention for Multi-Modal Joint Vehicle Motion Forecastingcited by 87
  11. 2020Learning to Evaluate Perception Models Using Planner-Centric Metricscited by 49
  12. 2020Goal-Aware Prediction: Learning to Model What Matterscited by 45
8 more
  1. 2019Social Attention for Autonomous Decision-Making in Dense Trafficcited by 39
  2. 2020Policy-Aware Model Learning for Policy Gradient Methodscited by 23
  3. 2017Goal-Driven Dynamics Learning via Bayesian Optimizationcited by 19
  4. 2018Loss-Calibrated Approximate Inference in Bayesian Neural Networkscited by 18
  5. 2019Variational Bayesian Decision-making for Continuous Utilitiescited by 16
  6. 2021Rethinking Trajectory Forecasting Evaluationcited by 11
  7. 2021Pragmatic Image Compression for Human-in-the-Loop Decision-Makingcited by 7
  8. 2020Beelines: Motion Prediction Metrics for Self-Driving Safety and Comfortcited by 2

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Cited by year (2026 to 14 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2022: 6; 2023: 7; 2024: 2; 2025: 2; 2026: 1.

18 papers.

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  1. 2022PlanT: Explainable Planning Transformers via Object-Level Representationscited by 105
  2. 2024Towards learning-based planning:The nuPlan benchmark for real-world autonomous drivingcited by 104
  3. 2022DiffStack: A Differentiable and Modular Control Stack for Autonomous Vehiclescited by 37
  4. 2023What Truly Matters in Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving?cited by 17
  5. 2024AD4RL: Autonomous Driving Benchmarks for Offline Reinforcement Learning with Value-based Datasetcited by 15
  6. 2022Uncertainty estimation for Cross-dataset performance in Trajectory predictioncited by 13
  7. 2022RAP: Risk-Aware Prediction for Robust Planningcited by 12
  8. 2022Task-Relevant Failure Detection for Trajectory Predictors in Autonomous Vehiclescited by 11
  9. 2023VT-Former: An Exploratory Study on Vehicle Trajectory Prediction for Highway Surveillance through Graph Isomorphism and Transformercited by 10
  10. 2023A Unified View on Solving Objective Mismatch in Model-Based Reinforcement Learningcited by 9
  11. 2025Trends in Motion Prediction Toward Deployable and Generalizable Autonomy: A Revisit and Perspectivescited by 5
  12. 2022Risk-Driven Design of Perception Systemscited by 4
6 more
  1. 2023AVOIDDS: Aircraft Vision-based Intruder Detection Dataset and Simulatorcited by 4
  2. 2023Quantifying Agent Interaction in Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning for Cost-efficient Generalizationcited by 2
  3. 2026E-TIDE: Fast, Structure-Preserving Motion Forecasting from Event Sequencescited by 1
  4. 2023Visual Perception System for Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
  5. 2023NashFormer: Leveraging Local Nash Equilibria for Semantically Diverse Trajectory Predictioncited by 0
  6. 2025Robust Planning for Autonomous Driving via Mixed Adversarial Diffusion Predictionscited by 0

Similar, not cited

Close in wording, no citation either way

  1. 2022Distribution-aware Goal Prediction and Conformant Model-based Planning for Safe Autonomous Driving
  2. 2022Driver Dojo: A Benchmark for Generalizable Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Driving
  3. 2025Measuring What Matters: Scenario-Driven Evaluation for Trajectory Predictors in Autonomous Driving
  4. 2023Machine Learning for Autonomous Vehicle's Trajectory Prediction: A comprehensive survey, Challenges, and Future Research Directions
  5. 2026What Probing Reveals about Autonomous Driving: Linking Internal Prediction Errors to Ego Planning
  6. 2025Driving Through Uncertainty: Risk-Averse Control with LLM Commonsense for Autonomous Driving under Perception Deficits
  7. 2021Evaluating Robustness over High Level Driving Instruction for Autonomous Driving
  8. 2024Towards Human-Like Driving: Active Inference in Autonomous Vehicle Control