ESCM2: Entire Space Counterfactual Multi-Task Model for Post-Click Conversion Rate Estimation

Accurate estimation of post-click conversion rate is critical for building recommender systems, which has long been confronted with sample selection bias and data sparsity issues. Methods in the Entire Space Multi-task Model (ESMM) family leverage the sequential pattern of user actions, i.e. impressionrightarrow click rightarrow conversion to address data sparsity issue. However, they still fail to ensure the unbiasedness of CVR estimates. In this paper, we theoretically demonstrate that ESMM suffers from the following two problems: (1) Inherent Estimation Bias (IEB), where the estimated CVR of ESMM is inherently higher than the ground truth; (2) Potential Independence Priority (PIP) for CTCVR estimation, where there is a risk that the ESMM overlooks the causality from click to conversion. To this end, we devise a principled approach named Entire Space Counterfactual Multi-task Modelling (ESCM2), which employs a counterfactual risk miminizer as a regularizer in ESMM to address both IEB and PIP issues simultaneously. Extensive experiments on offline datasets and online environments demonstrate that our proposed ESCM2 can largely mitigate the inherent IEB and PIP issues and achieve better performance than baseline models.