Tighter risk certificates for neural networks
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Abstract (arXiv)
This paper presents an empirical study regarding training probabilistic neural networks using training objectives derived from PAC-Bayes bounds. In the context of probabilistic neural networks, the output of training is a probability distribution over network weights. We present two training objectives, used here for the first time in connection with training neural networks. These two training objectives are derived from tight PAC-Bayes bounds. We also re-implement a previously used training objective based on a classical PAC-Bayes bound, to compare the properties of the predictors learned using the different training objectives. We compute risk certificates for the learnt predictors, based on part of the data used to learn the predictors. We further experiment with different types of priors on the weights (both data-free and data-dependent priors) and neural network architectures. Our experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 show that our training methods produce competitive test set errors and non-vacuous risk bounds with much tighter values than previous results in the literature, showing promise not only to guide the learning algorithm through bounding the risk but also for model selection. These observations suggest that the methods studied here might be good candidates for self-certified learning, in the sense of using the whole data set for learning a predictor and certifying its risk on any unseen data (from the same distribution as the training data) potentially without the need for holding out test data.
Key facts. Cited by 112 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 25 Jul 2020.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 15; 2022: 26; 2023: 23; 2024: 14; 2025: 21; 2026: 13.
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- 2021User-friendly introduction to PAC-Bayes boundscited by 234
- 2022PAC-Bayes Compression Bounds So Tight That They Can Explain Generalizationcited by 75
- 2023The No Free Lunch Theorem, Kolmogorov Complexity, and the Role of Inductive Biases in Machine Learningcited by 63
- 2025Deep Learning is Not So Mysterious or Differentcited by 55
- 2022Enhancing Adversarial Training with Second-Order Statistics of Weightscited by 42
- 2023MMD-FUSE: Learning and Combining Kernels for Two-Sample Testing Without Data Splittingcited by 33
- 2021Generalization Bounds for Meta-Learning via PAC-Bayes and Uniform Stabilitycited by 29
- 2022A New Family of Generalization Bounds Using Samplewise Evaluated CMIcited by 28
- 2023A unified recipe for deriving (time-uniform) PAC-Bayes boundscited by 25
- 2024Unlocking Tokens as Data Points for Generalization Bounds on Larger Language Modelscited by 25
- 2021How Tight Can PAC-Bayes be in the Small Data Regime?cited by 24
- 2022Sim-to-Lab-to-Real: Safe Reinforcement Learning with Shielding and Generalization Guaranteescited by 24
38 more
- 2022PAC-Bayes Generalisation Bounds for Heavy-Tailed Losses through Supermartingalescited by 23
- 2022Non-Vacuous Generalisation Bounds for Shallow Neural Networkscited by 22
- 2022Online PAC-Bayes Learningcited by 22
- 2021Learning PAC-Bayes Priors for Probabilistic Neural Networkscited by 21
- 2023PeFLL: Personalized Federated Learning by Learning to Learncited by 21
- 2022On PAC-Bayesian reconstruction guarantees for VAEscited by 20
- 2024Position: Understanding LLMs Requires More Than Statistical Generalizationcited by 20
- 2021On Margins and Derandomisation in PAC-Bayescited by 19
- 2023More PAC-Bayes bounds: From bounded losses, to losses with general tail behaviors, to anytime validitycited by 17
- 2021Learning Stochastic Majority Votes by Minimizing a PAC-Bayes Generalization Boundcited by 16
- 2023Statistical Guarantees for Variational Autoencoders using PAC-Bayesian Theorycited by 16
- 2022PAC-Bayesian Domain Adaptation Bounds for Multiclass Learnerscited by 13
- 2023Tighter PAC-Bayes Bounds Through Coin-Bettingcited by 13
- 2023PAC-Bayesian Generalization Bounds for Adversarial Generative Modelscited by 13
- 2021PAC-Bayes Bounds for Meta-learning with Data-Dependent Priorcited by 11
- 2022Scalable PAC-Bayesian Meta-Learning via the PAC-Optimal Hyper-Posterior: From Theory to Practicecited by 11
- 2023Learning via Wasserstein-Based High Probability Generalisation Boundscited by 11
- 2021Wide stochastic networks: Gaussian limit and PAC-Bayesian trainingcited by 10
- 2021Progress in Self-Certified Neural Networkscited by 10
- 2024More Flexible PAC-Bayesian Meta-Learning by Learning Learning Algorithmscited by 10
- 2022Generalisation under gradient descent via deterministic PAC-Bayescited by 9
- 2022Tighter PAC-Bayes Generalisation Bounds by Leveraging Example Difficultycited by 9
- 2023Lessons from Generalization Error Analysis of Federated Learning: You May Communicate Less Often!cited by 8
- 2021Conditionally Gaussian PAC-Bayescited by 7
- 2022On Margins and Generalisation for Voting Classifierscited by 7
- 2022Scale-invariant Bayesian Neural Networks with Connectivity Tangent Kernelcited by 7
- 2022PAC-Bayes Bounds for Bandit Problems: A Survey and Experimental Comparisoncited by 7
- 2022Weight Expansion: A New Perspective on Dropout and Generalizationcited by 6
- 2022On the Importance of Gradient Norm in PAC-Bayesian Boundscited by 6
- 2023Improving Generalization of Complex Models under Unbounded Loss Using PAC-Bayes Boundscited by 6
- 2023PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Predictioncited by 6
- 2024Tight PAC-Bayesian Risk Certificates for Contrastive Learningcited by 6
- 2023Comparing Comparators in Generalization Boundscited by 5
- 2021Task-Driven Detection of Distribution Shifts with Statistical Guarantees for Robot Learningcited by 4
- 2022LEATHER: A Framework for Learning to Generate Human-like Text in Dialoguecited by 4
- 2022PAC-Bayesian Learning of Optimization Algorithmscited by 4
- 2023Learning Expressive Priors for Generalization and Uncertainty Estimation in Neural Networkscited by 4
- 2024Deep Exploration with PAC-Bayescited by 4
50 most cited of 112 All 112 (JSON)
- 2026Certification Frontiers for Gaussian LoRA: Independent Priors, Posterior Risk, and Prediction-Preserving Balancing26 Sep 2026
- 2026On the disintegration of the stochastic majority vote: From PAC-Bayesian bounds to a self-bounding algorithm15 Sep 2026
- 2026PAC-Bayesian Reconstruction Guarantees for Time Series Variational Autoencoders4 Sep 2026
- 2026PAC-DP: PAC-Bayesian Diffusion Policy Learning27 Jul 2026
- 2026PAC-Bayesian Certificates for Quadratic Closed-Loop Control26 Jun 2026
- 2026Certification of Machine Learning Models via Directional Sharpness23 Jun 2026
- 2026From Privacy to Generalization: Linear Max-Information Bounds for Differentially Private Learning Algorithms25 May 2026
- 2026Bound to Disagree: Generalization Bounds via Certifiable Surrogates26 Feb 2026
- 2026Block-Sample MAC-Bayes Generalization Bounds13 Feb 2026
- 2026Tighter Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds via a Novel Class of Change of Measure Inequalities8 Feb 2026
- 2026Hallucination is a Consequence of Space-Optimality: A Rate-Distortion Theorem for Membership Testing31 Jan 2026
- 2026A PAC-Bayesian Analysis of Channel-Induced Degradation in Edge Inference16 Jan 2026
38 more
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- 2025Pick-to-Learn for Systems and Control: Data-driven Synthesis with State-of-the-art Safety Guarantees4 Dec 2025
- 2025A Framework for Bounding Deterministic Risk with PAC-Bayes: Applications to Majority Votes29 Oct 2025
- 2025Position: Many generalization measures for deep learning are fragile21 Oct 2025
- 2025PAC-Bayesian Bounds on Constrained f-Entropic Risk Measures13 Oct 2025
- 2025PAC-Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Trains Generalizable Policies12 Oct 2025
- 2025Some theoretical improvements on the tightness of PAC-Bayes risk certificates for neural networks9 Oct 2025
- 2025Generalization of Gibbs and Langevin Monte Carlo Algorithms in the Interpolation Regime7 Oct 2025
- 2025Non-Vacuous Generalization Bounds: Can Rescaling Invariances Help?30 Sep 2025
- 2025Reconcile Certified Robustness and Accuracy for DNN-based Smoothed Majority Vote Classifier30 Sep 2025
- 2025Sequential Off-Policy Learning with Logarithmic Smoothing12 Jun 2025
- 2025Deep Actor-Critics with Tight Risk Certificates26 May 2025
- 2025Model Merging is Secretly Certifiable: Non-Vacuous Generalisation Bounds for Low-Shot Learning21 May 2025
- 2025Fast Rate Bounds for Multi-Task and Meta-Learning with Different Sample Sizes21 May 2025
- 2025Multiview Representation Learning via Distributed Joint Latent Space Structuring25 Apr 2025
- 2025Sample Compression for Self Certified Continual Learning13 Mar 2025
- 2025How good is PAC-Bayes at explaining generalisation?11 Mar 2025
- 2025Non-vacuous Generalization Bounds for Deep Neural Networks without any modification to the trained models10 Mar 2025
- 2025Measuring temporal effects of agent knowledge by date-controlled tool use6 Mar 2025
- 2025Deep Learning is Not So Mysterious or Different3 Mar 2025
- 2025Generalization Guarantees for Representation Learning via Data-Dependent Gaussian Mixture Priors21 Feb 2025
- 2025Model Diffusion for Certifiable Few-shot Transfer Learning10 Feb 2025
- 2024Tight PAC-Bayesian Risk Certificates for Contrastive Learning4 Dec 2024
- 2024Multi-View Majority Vote Learning Algorithms: Direct Minimization of PAC-Bayesian Bounds9 Nov 2024
- 2024Learning via Surrogate PAC-Bayes14 Oct 2024
- 2024A Generalization Result for Convergence in Learning-to-Optimize10 Oct 2024
- 2024Sample Compression Unleashed: New Generalization Bounds for Real Valued Losses26 Sep 2024
- 2024Rule Extrapolation in Language Models: A Study of Compositional Generalization on OOD Prompts9 Sep 2024
- 2024Unlocking Tokens as Data Points for Generalization Bounds on Larger Language Models25 Jul 2024
- 2024On Uniform, Bayesian, and PAC-Bayesian Deep Ensembles8 Jun 2024
- 2024Recursive PAC-Bayes: A Frequentist Approach to Sequential Prior Updates with No Information Loss23 May 2024
- 2024Generalization of Hamiltonian algorithms23 May 2024
- 2024Position: Understanding LLMs Requires More Than Statistical Generalization3 May 2024
- 2024Better-than-KL PAC-Bayes Bounds14 Feb 2024
- 2024More Flexible PAC-Bayesian Meta-Learning by Learning Learning Algorithms6 Feb 2024
- 2024Deep Exploration with PAC-Bayes5 Feb 2024
- 2023A note on regularised NTK dynamics with an application to PAC-Bayesian training20 Dec 2023
- 2023PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Prediction7 Dec 2023
50 newest of 112 All 112 (JSON)
- 2026PAC-DP: PAC-Bayesian Diffusion Policy Learningcited by 0
- 2026PAC-DP: PAC-Bayesian Diffusion Policy Learning27 Jul 2026
- 2021User-friendly introduction to PAC-Bayes boundscited by 234
- 2022PAC-Bayes Compression Bounds So Tight That They Can Explain Generalizationcited by 75
- 2023The No Free Lunch Theorem, Kolmogorov Complexity, and the Role of Inductive Biases in Machine Learningcited by 63
- 2025Deep Learning is Not So Mysterious or Differentcited by 55
- 2022Enhancing Adversarial Training with Second-Order Statistics of Weightscited by 42
- 2023MMD-FUSE: Learning and Combining Kernels for Two-Sample Testing Without Data Splittingcited by 33
- 2021Generalization Bounds for Meta-Learning via PAC-Bayes and Uniform Stabilitycited by 29
- 2022A New Family of Generalization Bounds Using Samplewise Evaluated CMIcited by 28
- 2023A unified recipe for deriving (time-uniform) PAC-Bayes boundscited by 25
- 2024Unlocking Tokens as Data Points for Generalization Bounds on Larger Language Modelscited by 25
- 2021How Tight Can PAC-Bayes be in the Small Data Regime?cited by 24
- 2022Sim-to-Lab-to-Real: Safe Reinforcement Learning with Shielding and Generalization Guaranteescited by 24
12 most cited of 110 All 110 (JSON)
- 2026Certification Frontiers for Gaussian LoRA: Independent Priors, Posterior Risk, and Prediction-Preserving Balancing26 Sep 2026
- 2026On the disintegration of the stochastic majority vote: From PAC-Bayesian bounds to a self-bounding algorithm15 Sep 2026
- 2026PAC-Bayesian Reconstruction Guarantees for Time Series Variational Autoencoders4 Sep 2026
- 2026PAC-Bayesian Certificates for Quadratic Closed-Loop Control26 Jun 2026
- 2026Certification of Machine Learning Models via Directional Sharpness23 Jun 2026
- 2026From Privacy to Generalization: Linear Max-Information Bounds for Differentially Private Learning Algorithms25 May 2026
- 2026Bound to Disagree: Generalization Bounds via Certifiable Surrogates26 Feb 2026
- 2026Block-Sample MAC-Bayes Generalization Bounds13 Feb 2026
- 2026Tighter Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds via a Novel Class of Change of Measure Inequalities8 Feb 2026
- 2026Hallucination is a Consequence of Space-Optimality: A Rate-Distortion Theorem for Membership Testing31 Jan 2026
- 2026A PAC-Bayesian Analysis of Channel-Induced Degradation in Edge Inference16 Jan 2026
- 2026Leveraging Flatness to Improve Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds for SGD4 Jan 2026
12 newest of 110 All 110 (JSON)