mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Naturalistic Driver Intention and Path Prediction using Recurrent Neural Networks

arXiv 1807.09995 ↗First posted 26 Jul 2018cs.CVcited by 29

On the map: World models → World models for autonomous driving

Abstract (arXiv)

Understanding the intentions of drivers at intersections is a critical component for autonomous vehicles. Urban intersections that do not have traffic signals are a common epicentre of highly variable vehicle movement and interactions. We present a method for predicting driver intent at urban intersections through multi-modal trajectory prediction with uncertainty. Our method is based on recurrent neural networks combined with a mixture density network output layer. To consolidate the multi-modal nature of the output probability distribution, we introduce a clustering algorithm that extracts the set of possible paths that exist in the prediction output, and ranks them according to likelihood. To verify the method's performance and generalizability, we present a real-world dataset that consists of over 23,000 vehicles traversing five different intersections, collected using a vehicle mounted Lidar based tracking system. An array of metrics is used to demonstrate the performance of the model against several baselines.

Key facts. Cited by 29 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in World models for autonomous driving, one of 11 directions in World models. Builds on 0 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Jul 2018.

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Citing papers per year: 2021: 8; 2022: 3; 2023: 5; 2024: 6; 2025: 7.

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  1. 2024Understanding World or Predicting Future? A Comprehensive Survey of World Modelscited by 161
  2. 2024A Survey on Autonomous Driving Datasets: Statistics, Annotation Quality, and a Future Outlookcited by 65
  3. 2021Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Trajectory Predictioncited by 36
  4. 2022Behavioral Intention Prediction in Driving Scenes: A Surveycited by 30
  5. 2021CausalCity: Complex Simulations with Agency for Causal Discovery and Reasoningcited by 23
  6. 2023Machine Learning for Autonomous Vehicle's Trajectory Prediction: A comprehensive survey, Challenges, and Future Research Directionscited by 23
  7. 2022Transferable and Adaptable Driving Behavior Predictioncited by 20
  8. 2021Causal-based Time Series Domain Generalization for Vehicle Intention Predictioncited by 17
  9. 2025Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directionscited by 14
  10. 2021Early Lane Change Prediction for Automated Driving Systems Using Multi-Task Attention-based Convolutional Neural Networkscited by 10
  11. 2023Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Avatar Migration in AIoT-enabled Vehicular Metaverses with Trajectory Predictioncited by 10
  12. 2021Vehicle Behavior Prediction and Generalization Using Imbalanced Learning Techniquescited by 7
17 more
  1. 2023Multimodal Manoeuvre and Trajectory Prediction for Automated Driving on Highways Using Transformer Networkscited by 7
  2. 2024KI-GAN: Knowledge-Informed Generative Adversarial Networks for Enhanced Multi-Vehicle Trajectory Forecasting at Signalized Intersectionscited by 4
  3. 2021Maneuver-Aware Pooling for Vehicle Trajectory Predictioncited by 3
  4. 2024Are you a robot? Detecting Autonomous Vehicles from Behavior Analysiscited by 2
  5. 2025INTENT: Trajectory Prediction Framework with Intention-Guided Contrastive Clusteringcited by 2
  6. 2025GAMDTP: Dynamic Trajectory Prediction with Graph Attention Mamba Networkcited by 2
  7. 2025DyTTP: Trajectory Prediction with Normalization-Free Transformerscited by 2
  8. 2021Open-set Intersection Intention Prediction for Autonomous Drivingcited by 1
  9. 2021Maneuver-based Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses at Roundaboutscited by 1
  10. 2022Artificial intelligence for improved fitting of trajectories of elementary particles in inhomogeneous dense materials immersed in a magnetic fieldcited by 1
  11. 2023Probabilistic Prediction of Longitudinal Trajectory Considering Driving Heterogeneity with Interpretabilitycited by 1
  12. 2024Critical Example Mining for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction using Flow-based Generative Modelscited by 1
  13. 2025Adaptive Output Steps: FlexiSteps Network for Dynamic Trajectory Predictioncited by 1
  14. 2023An enhanced motion planning approach by integrating driving heterogeneity and long-term trajectory prediction for automated driving systemscited by 0
  15. 2024Multimodal Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving on Unstructured Roads using Deep Convolutional Networkcited by 0
  16. 2025EMT: A Visual Multi-Task Benchmark Dataset for Autonomous Drivingcited by 0
  17. 2025Wireless Power Transfer and Intent-Driven Network Optimization in AAVs-assisted IoT for 6G Sustainable Connectivitycited by 0

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  1. 2018An LSTM Network for Highway Trajectory Prediction
  2. 2021A hierarchical behavior prediction framework at signalized intersections
  3. 2019Uncertainty-Aware Driver Trajectory Prediction at Urban Intersections
  4. 2023A Novel Temporal Multi-Gate Mixture-of-Experts Approach for Vehicle Trajectory and Driving Intention Prediction
  5. 2023Navigating Uncertainty: The Role of Short-Term Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Vehicle Safety
  6. 2026Learning-Based Behavior Planning for Automated Driving: Real-World Integration and Deployment
  7. 2025Pedestrian Intention Prediction via Vision-Language Foundation Models
  8. 2026Pedestrian Crossing Intent Prediction via Psychological Features and Transformer Fusion