Learning to Optimize Via Posterior Sampling
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Abstract (arXiv)
This paper considers the use of a simple posterior sampling algorithm to balance between exploration and exploitation when learning to optimize actions such as in multi-armed bandit problems. The algorithm, also known as Thompson Sampling, offers significant advantages over the popular upper confidence bound (UCB) approach, and can be applied to problems with finite or infinite action spaces and complicated relationships among action rewards. We make two theoretical contributions. The first establishes a connection between posterior sampling and UCB algorithms. This result lets us convert regret bounds developed for UCB algorithms into Bayesian regret bounds for posterior sampling. Our second theoretical contribution is a Bayesian regret bound for posterior sampling that applies broadly and can be specialized to many model classes. This bound depends on a new notion we refer to as the eluder dimension, which measures the degree of dependence among action rewards. Compared to UCB algorithm Bayesian regret bounds for specific model classes, our general bound matches the best available for linear models and is stronger than the best available for generalized linear models. Further, our analysis provides insight into performance advantages of posterior sampling, which are highlighted through simulation results that demonstrate performance surpassing recently proposed UCB algorithms.
Key facts. Cited by 256 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 11 Jan 2013.
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Citing papers per year: 2020: 1; 2021: 48; 2022: 43; 2023: 44; 2024: 40; 2025: 38; 2026: 42.
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- 2021Meta-Thompson Samplingcited by 63
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- 2021Fairness of Exposure in Stochastic Banditscited by 43
- 2022Bayesian Optimization over Discrete and Mixed Spaces via Probabilistic Reparameterizationcited by 37
- 2021Hierarchical Bayesian Banditscited by 35
- 2022On the Complexity of Adversarial Decision Makingcited by 33
12 most cited of 224 All 224 (JSON)
- 2026Bayesian Learning to Select Fair Classifiers14 Oct 2026
- 2026Exploration strategies for Gaussian process bandit optimization with inference regret guarantees12 Oct 2026
- 2026Thompson Sampling for Learning in Zero-Sum Games11 Oct 2026
- 2026A Unified Optimism-Agnostic Framework for Linear Bandits over Spherical Action Sets26 Sep 2026
- 2026Sharper Regret Bounds for Time-Varying Gaussian Process Bandits with Constant Exploration19 Aug 2026
- 2026Improved Regret Analysis for Parallel Gaussian Process Bandit Optimization17 Aug 2026
- 2026402Pilot: An x402 Decision Layer for Autonomous Agent Micropayments2 Aug 2026
- 2026Early Verdicts, Better Budgets: Sequential Adaptive Rollout Allocation for Compute-Efficient RLVR28 Jul 2026
- 2026Experimentation and Commitment under Reward Shifts26 Jul 2026
- 2026Thompson Sampling Is 2-Competitive for Mistakes14 Jul 2026
- 2026Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling16 Jun 2026
- 2026An Information-Theoretic Definition for Open-Ended Learning6 Jun 2026
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