DARTS: Targeting Prognostic Covariates in Budget-Constrained Sequential Experiments
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Randomized controlled trials typically assume that prognostic covariates are known and available at no cost. In practice, obtaining high-dimensional pretreatment data is costly, forcing a trade-off between covariate-adaptive precision and a measurement budget. We introduce Dynamic Adaptive Rerandomization via Thompson Sampling (DARTS), which treats covariate acquisition as a sequential optimization problem embedded within a design-based causal inference task. A budgeted combinatorial Thompson sampler learns which covariates are most prognostic across successive batches; selected covariates then drive rerandomization and regression adjustment to reduce batch-level average treatment effect variance. Our primary theoretical contribution is a decoupling result: adaptive covariate selection based on past batches preserves batch-level randomization validity, and the cumulative inverse-variance weighted estimator achieves at least nominal asymptotic coverage. We further derive a Bayes risk bound for the acquisition layer that matches the minimax lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Empirically, DARTS systematically concentrates the budget on informative features, significantly closing the efficiency gap to oracle designs while maintaining strict inferential validity.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 12 of its 28 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 7 May 2026.
Builds on
12 of 28 references.
References · 12
- 2013Learning to Optimize Via Posterior Samplingcited by 253
- 2018Deep Bayesian Bandits Showdown: An Empirical Comparison of Bayesian Deep Networks for Thompson Samplingcited by 166
- 2023Learning to Maximize Mutual Information for Dynamic Feature Selectioncited by 54
- 2020Active Feature Acquisition with Generative Surrogate Modelscited by 53
- 2017Classification with Costly Features using Deep Reinforcement Learningcited by 32
- 2022An Analysis of Ensemble Samplingcited by 23
- 2020Variable Selection via Thompson Samplingcited by 7
- 2022Budgeted Combinatorial Multi-Armed Banditscited by 6
- 2019Rerandomization and Regression Adjustmentcited by 4
- 2023Variable Importance Matching for Causal Inferencecited by 4
- 2025Anytime-Valid Inference in Adaptive Experiments: Covariate Adjustment and Balanced Powercited by 2
- 2026Design-based theory for causal inference from adaptive experimentscited by 1
Built on by
Not cited yet.