mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Belief-Guided Decision Making with Uncertainty Gating in the Game of Go

arXiv 2607.26946 ↗First posted 29 Jul 2026cs.AIcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advancements in Computer Go, driven by AlphaZero and MuZero, rely heavily on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to correct the errors of the neural network policy. While effective on massive computational clusters, this dependence creates a critical bottleneck on consumer-grade hardware, where the computational cost of tree management severely limits inference rates. Furthermore, without deep search, these models suffer from hallucination, proposing moves with high confidence that are strategically fatal. This paper introduces a novel Belief-Guided architecture that disentangles the Policy head from a distinct Belief head. Unlike traditional value functions, the Belief head acts as an internal simulator and independent critic, modeling epistemic uncertainty and strategic stability. By integrating memory mechanisms (Transformer/GRU) to handle long-term dependencies and the Ko rule, and utilizing a gating mechanism to filter overconfident policy errors, our model shifts the burden of intelligence from runtime search to parametric "intuition." Experimental results demonstrate that this approach significantly improves search-free win rates and reduces hallucination, enabling professional-level play on limited hardware where massive MCTS is infeasible.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 22 of its 39 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 29 Jul 2026.

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22 of 39 references.

References · 22

  1. 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,860
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  11. 2021Monte Carlo Tree Search: A Review of Recent Modifications and Applicationscited by 158
  12. 2021Online and Offline Reinforcement Learning by Planning with a Learned Modelcited by 90
10 more
  1. 2024Transformers represent belief state geometry in their residual streamcited by 73
  2. 2019Accelerating Self-Play Learning in Gocited by 60
  3. 2019ELF OpenGo: An Analysis and Open Reimplementation of AlphaZerocited by 37
  4. 2025Neural Architecture Discovery via Autonomous Evolutioncited by 15
  5. 2023MiniZero: Comparative Analysis of AlphaZero and MuZero on Go, Othello, and Atari Gamescited by 14
  6. 2024The Belief State Transformercited by 12
  7. 2022Evaluation Beyond Task Performance: Analyzing Concepts in AlphaZero in Hexcited by 8
  8. 2023Mind the Uncertainty: Risk-Aware and Actively Exploring Model-Based Reinforcement Learningcited by 2
  9. 2024Look Before You Leap: Enhancing Attention and Vigilance Regarding Harmful Content with GuidelineLLMcited by 2
  10. 2024Transformers as Game Players: Provable In-context Game-playing Capabilities of Pre-trained Modelscited by 1

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