Counterfactual Explanations for Time Series Should be Human-Centered and Temporally Coherent in Interventions
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Abstract (arXiv)
Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data assumptions and focus on generating minimal input perturbations to flip model predictions. This paper argues that such approaches are fundamentally insufficient in clinical recommendation settings, where interventions unfold over time and must be causally plausible and temporally coherent. We advocate for a shift towards counterfactuals that reflect sustained, goal-directed interventions aligned with clinical reasoning and patient-specific dynamics. We identify critical gaps in existing methods that limit their practical applicability, specifically, temporal blind spots and the lack of user-centered considerations in both method design and evaluation metrics. To support our position, we conduct a robustness analysis of several state-of-the-art methods for time series and show that the generated counterfactuals are highly sensitive to stochastic noise. This finding highlights their limited reliability in real-world clinical settings, where minor measurement variations are inevitable. We conclude by calling for methods and evaluation frameworks that go beyond mere prediction changes without considering feasibility or actionability. We emphasize the need for actionable, purpose-driven interventions that are feasible in real-world contexts for the users of such applications.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 25 of its 55 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 16 Dec 2025.
Builds on
25 of 55 references.
References · 25
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13 more
- 2021Conditional Generative Models for Counterfactual Explanationscited by 28
- 2023Self-Interpretable Time Series Prediction with Counterfactual Explanationscited by 24
- 2023Promoting Counterfactual Robustness through Diversitycited by 17
- 2023Generating robust counterfactual explanationscited by 13
- 2022Motif-guided Time Series Counterfactual Explanationscited by 12
- 2022Generating Sparse Counterfactual Explanations For Multivariate Time Seriescited by 11
- 2024M-CELS: Counterfactual Explanation for Multivariate Time Series Data Guided by Learned Saliency Mapscited by 10
- 2022Shapelet-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Multivariate Time Seriescited by 9
- 2024Shapelet-based Model-agnostic Counterfactual Local Explanations for Time Series Classificationcited by 6
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- 2023Towards a Comprehensive Human-Centred Evaluation Framework for Explainable AIcited by 3
- 2023XTSC-Bench: Quantitative Benchmarking for Explainers on Time Series Classificationcited by 3
- 2024Benchmarking Counterfactual Interpretability in Deep Learning Models for Time Series Classificationcited by 1
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.
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