Small is Sufficient: Reducing the World AI Energy Consumption Through Model Selection

The energy consumption and carbon footprint of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have become critical concerns due to rising costs and environmental impacts. In response, a new trend in green AI is emerging, shifting from the "bigger is better" paradigm, which prioritizes large models, to "small is sufficient", emphasizing energy sobriety through smaller, more efficient models. We explore how the AI community can adopt energy sobriety today by focusing on model selection during inference. Model selection consists of choosing the most appropriate model for a given task, a simple and readily applicable method, unlike approaches requiring new hardware or architectures. Our hypothesis is that, as in many industrial activities, marginal utility gains decrease with increasing model size. Thus, applying model selection can significantly reduce energy consumption while maintaining good utility for AI inference. We conduct a systematic study of AI tasks, analyzing their popularity, model size, and efficiency. We examine how the maturity of different tasks and model adoption patterns impact the achievable energy savings, ranging from 1% to 98% for different tasks. Our estimates indicate that applying model selection could reduce AI energy consumption by 27.8%, saving 31.9 TWh worldwide in 2025 - equivalent to the annual output of five nuclear power reactors.