mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Large language models surpass human experts in predicting neuroscience results

arXiv 2403.03230 ↗First posted 4 Mar 2024q-bio.NC cs.AIcited by 69

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Abstract (arXiv)

Scientific discoveries often hinge on synthesizing decades of research, a task that potentially outstrips human information processing capacities. Large language models (LLMs) offer a solution. LLMs trained on the vast scientific literature could potentially integrate noisy yet interrelated findings to forecast novel results better than human experts. To evaluate this possibility, we created BrainBench, a forward-looking benchmark for predicting neuroscience results. We find that LLMs surpass experts in predicting experimental outcomes. BrainGPT, an LLM we tuned on the neuroscience literature, performed better yet. Like human experts, when LLMs were confident in their predictions, they were more likely to be correct, which presages a future where humans and LLMs team together to make discoveries. Our approach is not neuroscience-specific and is transferable to other knowledge-intensive endeavors.

Key facts. Cited by 69 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 21 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Mar 2024.

Builds on

21 of 43 references.

References · 21

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9 more
  1. 2022Galactica: A Large Language Model for Sciencecited by 736
  2. 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 644
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  4. 2023The Falcon Series of Open Language Modelscited by 526
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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2024: 8; 2025: 45; 2026: 16.

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  1. 2025Vending-Bench: A Benchmark for Long-Term Coherence of Autonomous Agentscited by 75
  2. 2025The Alternative Annotator Test for LLM-as-a-Judge: How to Statistically Justify Replacing Human Annotators with LLMscited by 72
  3. 2025AgentRxiv: Towards Collaborative Autonomous Researchcited by 64
  4. 2025The Homogenizing Effect of Large Language Models on Human Expression and Thoughtcited by 35
  5. 2024LabSafety Bench: Benchmarking LLMs on Safety Issues in Scientific Labscited by 24
  6. 2025Foundation Model of Electronic Medical Records for Adaptive Risk Estimationcited by 17
  7. 2025All That Glitters is Not Novel: Plagiarism in AI Generated Researchcited by 17
  8. 2025DeepCritic: Deliberate Critique with Large Language Modelscited by 17
  9. 2025Let's Verify Math Questions Step by Stepcited by 17
  10. 2025Predicting Empirical AI Research Outcomes with Language Modelscited by 14
  11. 2024Adversarial Attacks on Large Language Models Using Regularized Relaxationcited by 12
  12. 2025Can LLMs Explain Themselves Counterfactually?cited by 10
38 more
  1. 2024Knowledge-Driven Feature Selection and Engineering for Genotype Data with Large Language Modelscited by 9
  2. 2025Evolving Roles of LLMs in Scientific Innovation: Assistant, Collaborator, Scientist, and Evaluatorcited by 9
  3. 2024CONFLARE: CONFormal LArge language model REtrievalcited by 6
  4. 2025Knowledge Augmented Complex Problem Solving with Large Language Models: A Surveycited by 6
  5. 2025Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impactscited by 6
  6. 2025Embracing Trustworthy Brain-Agent Collaboration as Paradigm Extension for Intelligent Assistive Technologiescited by 5
  7. 2025DeliveryBench: Can Agents Earn Profit in Real World?cited by 5
  8. 2025Trans-EnV: A Framework for Evaluating the Linguistic Robustness of LLMs Against English Varietiescited by 4
  9. 2025Fragile Preferences: A Deep Dive Into Order Effects in Large Language Modelscited by 4
  10. 2025Next Token Knowledge Tracing: Exploiting Pretrained LLM Representations to Decode Student Behaviourcited by 4
  11. 2025Shakespearean Sparks: The Dance of Hallucination and Creativity in LLMs' Decoding Layerscited by 3
  12. 2025Adversarial Attack on Large Language Models using Exponentiated Gradient Descentcited by 3
  13. 2025LLM-based Multi-Agent Copilot for Quantum Sensorcited by 3
  14. 2025Evaluating Sparse Autoencoders for Monosemantic Representationcited by 3
  15. 2025Addressing Longstanding Challenges in Cognitive Science with Language Modelscited by 3
  16. 2025From Context to EDUs: Faithful and Structured Context Compression via Elementary Discourse Unit Decompositioncited by 3
  17. 2026Argumentation for Explainable and Globally Contestable Decision Support with LLMscited by 3
  18. 2026NeuroAgent: LLM Agents for Multimodal Neuroimaging Analysis and Researchcited by 3
  19. 2024Matching domain experts by training from scratch on domain knowledgecited by 2
  20. 2025How Deep is Love in LLMs' Hearts? Exploring Semantic Size in Human-like Cognitioncited by 2
  21. 2025Can Large Language Models Simulate Human Responses? A Case Study of Stated Preference Experiments in the Context of Heating-related Choicescited by 2
  22. 2025Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attack on Large Language Models Using Exponentiated Gradient Descentcited by 2
  23. 2025Disentangling Interaction and Bias Effects in Opinion Dynamics of Large Language Modelscited by 2
  24. 2025Psychological and behavioural responses in human-agent vs. human-human interactions: a systematic review and meta-analysiscited by 2
  25. 2025TusoAI: Agentic Optimization for Scientific Methodscited by 2
  26. 2025PARC: An Autonomous Self-Reflective Coding Agent for Robust Execution of Long-Horizon Taskscited by 2
  27. 2025The Epistemological Consequences of Large Language Models: Rethinking collective intelligence and institutional knowledgecited by 2
  28. 2026Social Dynamics as Critical Vulnerabilities that Undermine Objective Decision-Making in LLM Collectivescited by 2
  29. 2024Confidence-weighted integration of human and machine judgments for superior decision-makingcited by 1
  30. 2025Thinking with Many Minds: Using Large Language Models for Multi-Perspective Problem-Solvingcited by 1
  31. 2025When Trust Collides: Decoding Human-LLM Cooperation Dynamics through the Prisoner's Dilemmacited by 1
  32. 2025Probability Consistency in Large Language Models: Theoretical Foundations Meet Empirical Discrepanciescited by 1
  33. 2025Beyond Automation: Socratic AI, Epistemic Agency, and the Implications of the Emergence of Orchestrated Multi-Agent Learning Architecturescited by 1
  34. 2025Solve it with EASEcited by 1
  35. 2026LLM Agents Predict Social Media Reactions but Do Not Outperform Text Classifiers: Benchmarking Simulation Accuracy Using 120K+ Personas of 1511 Humanscited by 1
  36. 2024GECKO: Generative Language Model for English, Code and Koreancited by 0
  37. 2024Consultation on Industrial Machine Faults with Large language Modelscited by 0
  38. 2025Decoding Knowledge in Large Language Models: A Framework for Categorization and Comprehensioncited by 0

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