Counterfactual Influence in Markov Decision Processes

Our work addresses a fundamental problem in the context of counterfactual inference for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Given an MDP path τ, this kind of inference allows us to derive counterfactual paths τ' describing what-if versions of τ obtained under different action sequences than those observed in τ. However, as the counterfactual states and actions deviate from the observed ones over time, the observation τ may no longer influence the counterfactual world, meaning that the analysis is no longer tailored to the individual observation, resulting in interventional outcomes rather than counterfactual ones. Even though this issue specifically affects the popular Gumbel-max structural causal model used for MDP counterfactuals, it has remained overlooked until now. In this work, we introduce a formal characterisation of influence based on comparing counterfactual and interventional distributions. We devise an algorithm to construct counterfactual models that automatically satisfy influence constraints. Leveraging such models, we derive counterfactual policies that are not just optimal for a given reward structure but also remain tailored to the observed path. Even though there is an unavoidable trade-off between policy optimality and strength of influence constraints, our experiments demonstrate that it is possible to derive (near-)optimal policies while remaining under the influence of the observation.