Quantifying stability of non-power-seeking in artificial agents

We investigate the question: if an AI agent is known to be safe in one setting, is it also safe in a new setting similar to the first? This is a core question of AI alignment--we train and test models in a certain environment, but deploy them in another, and we need to guarantee that models that seem safe in testing remain so in deployment. Our notion of safety is based on power-seeking--an agent which seeks power is not safe. In particular, we focus on a crucial type of power-seeking: resisting shutdown. We model agents as policies for Markov decision processes, and show (in two cases of interest) that not resisting shutdown is "stable": if an MDP has certain policies which don't avoid shutdown, the corresponding policies for a similar MDP also don't avoid shutdown. We also show that there are natural cases where safety is _not_ stable--arbitrarily small perturbations may result in policies which never shut down. In our first case of interest--near-optimal policies--we use a bisimulation metric on MDPs to prove that small perturbations won't make the agent take longer to shut down. Our second case of interest is policies for MDPs satisfying certain constraints which hold for various models (including language models). Here, we demonstrate a quantitative bound on how fast the probability of not shutting down can increase: by defining a metric on MDPs; proving that the probability of not shutting down, as a function on MDPs, is lower semicontinuous; and bounding how quickly this function decreases.