mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Apeliotes: A Diffusion-Based Modeling Framework for km-scale Multi-Level Atmospheric Fields

arXiv 2607.17037 ↗First posted 19 Jul 2026cs.LG cs.CEcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

High-resolution atmospheric data are required to resolve mesoscale and localized meteorological structures, however such datasets remain limited in many regions of the world. Existing high-resolution weather products are typically produced through dynamical downscaling, which is computationally expensive and difficult to scale across locations, variables, and forecast scenarios. These limitations motivate machine-learning-based downscaling systems that can generate multiple weather variables stochastically while producing new high-resolution fields directly. In this paper we present Apeliotes, a framework for high-resolution weather forecasting. Built on the global re-analysis atmospheric data, a pre-trained global weather foundation model, and a regionally trained generative diffusion model, Apeliotes not only provides accurate kilometer-scale weather variables, but also multi-level atmospheric fields which are not directly available in the existing global atmospheric data. Our comprehensive evaluation demonstrates that Apeliotes achieves highly competitive performance. The model predicts vertical wind profile with less than 3% error between truth and predicted fields, achieving correlations of 0.91 for 10-m wind speed and 0.99 for 2-m temperature, with NRMSE values of 0.42 and 0.17, respectively.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 37 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 19 Jul 2026.

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9 of 37 references.

References · 9

  1. 2023ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climatecited by 325
  2. 2023Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscalingcited by 103
  3. 2024Generative Data Assimilation of Sparse Weather Station Observations at Kilometer Scalescited by 27
  4. 2022Machine learning emulation of a local-scale UK climate modelcited by 20
  5. 2024Dynamical-generative downscaling of climate model ensemblescited by 19
  6. 2023Diffusion Models for High-Resolution Solar Forecastscited by 17
  7. 2024Conditional diffusion models for downscaling and bias correction of Earth system model precipitationcited by 16
  8. 2025Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Surveycited by 15
  9. 2025Satellite Observations Guided Diffusion Model for Accurate Meteorological States at Arbitrary Resolutioncited by 9

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  1. 2026Universal Diffusion-Based Probabilistic Downscaling
  2. 2024TAUDiff: Highly efficient kilometer-scale downscaling using generative diffusion models
  3. 2026Downscaling weather forecasts from Low- to High-Resolution with Diffusion Models
  4. 2024MambaDS: Near-Surface Meteorological Field Downscaling with Topography Constrained Selective State Space Modeling
  5. 2026AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion
  6. 2026Stress-Testing Dynamical and Generative Downscaling Using Subseasonal Extreme Precipitation Forecasts
  7. 2024A Generative Framework for Probabilistic, Spatiotemporally Coherent Downscaling of Climate Simulation
  8. 2024Enhancing Weather Predictions: Super-Resolution via Deep Diffusion Models