Optimal strategies for reject option classifiers
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Abstract (arXiv)
In classification with a reject option, the classifier is allowed in uncertain cases to abstain from prediction. The classical cost-based model of a reject option classifier requires the cost of rejection to be defined explicitly. An alternative bounded-improvement model, avoiding the notion of the reject cost, seeks for a classifier with a guaranteed selective risk and maximal cover. We coin a symmetric definition, the bounded-coverage model, which seeks for a classifier with minimal selective risk and guaranteed coverage. We prove that despite their different formulations the three rejection models lead to the same prediction strategy: a Bayes classifier endowed with a randomized Bayes selection function. We define a notion of a proper uncertainty score as a scalar summary of prediction uncertainty sufficient to construct the randomized Bayes selection function. We propose two algorithms to learn the proper uncertainty score from examples for an arbitrary black-box classifier. We prove that both algorithms provide Fisher consistent estimates of the proper uncertainty score and we demonstrate their efficiency on different prediction problems including classification, ordinal regression and structured output classification.
Key facts. Cited by 61 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 4 of its 42 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 29 Jan 2021.
Builds on
4 of 42 references.
References · 4
- 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,888
- 2017Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networkscited by 799
- 2018To Trust Or Not To Trust A Classifiercited by 205
- 2019Addressing Failure Prediction by Learning Model Confidencecited by 183
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 1; 2022: 4; 2023: 4; 2024: 10; 2025: 16; 2026: 26.
61 papers.
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- 2022Is Out-of-Distribution Detection Learnable?cited by 109
- 2021Machine Learning with a Reject Option: A surveycited by 107
- 2024Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systemscited by 31
- 2023How to Fix a Broken Confidence Estimator: Evaluating Post-hoc Methods for Selective Classification with Deep Neural Networkscited by 15
- 2024A Causal Framework for Evaluating Deferring Systemscited by 13
- 2024A Novel Characterization of the Population Area Under the Risk Coverage Curve (AURC) and Rates of Finite Sample Estimatorscited by 13
- 2024Selective Classification Under Distribution Shiftscited by 12
- 2025Selective Conformal Risk Controlcited by 10
- 2024Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Predictioncited by 9
- 2025Moment of Untruth: Dealing with Negative Queries in Video Moment Retrievalcited by 9
- 2022Confident AIcited by 6
- 2023How Far Can Fairness Constraints Help Recover From Biased Data?cited by 5
38 more
- 2024Classification with Conceptual Safeguardscited by 4
- 2025MCQA-Eval: Efficient Confidence Evaluation in NLG with Gold-Standard Correctness Labelscited by 4
- 2025To Ask or Not to Ask: Learning to Require Human Feedbackcited by 4
- 2026When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generationcited by 4
- 2024SCOD: From Heuristics to Theorycited by 3
- 2024Rejection via Learning Density Ratioscited by 3
- 2025Classification with Reject Option: Distribution-free Error Guarantees via Conformal Predictioncited by 3
- 2025Explicit Abstention Knobs for Predictable Reliability in Video Question Answeringcited by 3
- 2023Reject option models comprising out-of-distribution detectioncited by 2
- 2025Interpretable and Fair Mechanisms for Abstaining Classifierscited by 2
- 2025ALARM: Automated MLLM-Based Anomaly Detection in Complex-EnviRonment Monitoring with Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 2
- 2023Precision and Recall Reject Curves for Classificationcited by 1
- 2024Soft Dice Confidence: A Near-Optimal Confidence Estimator for Selective Prediction in Semantic Segmentationcited by 1
- 2025Reweighting Improves Conditional Risk Boundscited by 1
- 2025Regretful Decisions under Label Noisecited by 1
- 2025A Connection Between Learning to Reject and Bhattacharyya Divergencescited by 1
- 2025Adaptive Cumulative Mass Calibration with Conformal Predictioncited by 1
- 2026Multi-Level Strategic Classification: Incentivizing Improvement through Promotion and Relegation Dynamicscited by 1
- 2026TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasterscited by 1
- 2026Density-Ratio Losses for Post-Hoc Learning to Defercited by 1
- 2026Aligning Language Models with Selective Predictioncited by 1
- 2026Evaluating Epistemic Uncertainty: Beyond OOD Detection and Active Learningcited by 1
- 2026Presentation, Not Mechanism: A Render Confound in Deprecation-Aware Memory Evaluationcited by 1
- 2022Learning When to Say "I Don't Know"cited by 0
- 2022Uncertainty Quantification for Rule-Based Modelscited by 0
- 2024Stacked Confusion Reject Plots (SCORE)cited by 0
- 2025Bounded-Abstention Pairwise Learning to Rankcited by 0
- 2025Conservative Decisions with Risk Scorescited by 0
- 2025Fine-grained auxiliary learning for real-world product recommendationcited by 0
- 2025Filtering instances and rejecting predictions to obtain reliable models in healthcarecited by 0
- 2026Self-reflection in Automated Qualitative Coding: Improving Text Annotation through Secondary LLM Critiquecited by 0
- 2026Bounded-Abstention Multi-horizon Time-series Forecastingcited by 0
- 2026Selective Prior Synchronization via SYNC Losscited by 0
- 2026The Confidence Gate Theorem: When Should Ranked Decision Systems Abstain?cited by 0
- 2026Catalogue Grounded Multimodal Attribution for Museum Video under Resource and Regulatory Constraintscited by 0
- 2026When Alpha Breaks: Two-Level Uncertainty for Safe Deployment of Cross-Sectional Stock Rankerscited by 0
- 2026ELC: Evidential Lifelong Classifier for Uncertainty Aware Radar Pulse Classificationcited by 0
- 2026Sequential Strategic Classification with Multi-Stage Selective Classifierscited by 0
50 most cited of 61 All 61 (JSON)
- 2026Target-Dependent Limits of Causal Repair: A Leading-Log Frontier in a Gaussian Model30 Sep 2026
- 2026Classification with Abstention Under Class-Conditional Error Constraints18 Sep 2026
- 2026How Many Labels Does Model Choice Need? Certificates and Budgets for Selective Prediction16 Sep 2026
- 2026TCPα: Margin-Controlled Confidence estimation for reliable Music Information Retrieval20 Aug 2026
- 2026Presentation, Not Mechanism: A Render Confound in Deprecation-Aware Memory Evaluation17 Jul 2026
- 2026Evaluating Epistemic Uncertainty: Beyond OOD Detection and Active Learning16 Jul 2026
- 2026Amplitude-Only FFN Intervention for Tool-Structured LLM Inference Method: Gated Evaluation Protocol, and Cross-Model Empirical Results13 Jul 2026
- 2026Aligning Language Models with Selective Prediction3 Jul 2026
- 2026Expected Gain-based Escalation in Vertical Federated Learning30 Jun 2026
- 2026When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generation27 Jun 2026
- 2026Auditable Decision Models with Learned Abstention and Real-Time Steering26 May 2026
- 2026ECUASn: A family of metrics for principled evaluation of uncertainty-augmented systems19 May 2026
38 more
- 2026Density-Ratio Losses for Post-Hoc Learning to Defer19 May 2026
- 2026Knowing When Not to Predict: Self Supervised Learning and Abstention for Safer DR Screening18 May 2026
- 2026Post-hoc Selective Classification for Reliable Synthetic Image Detection9 May 2026
- 2026A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisions7 May 2026
- 2026Sequential Strategic Classification with Multi-Stage Selective Classifiers5 May 2026
- 2026ELC: Evidential Lifelong Classifier for Uncertainty Aware Radar Pulse Classification8 Apr 2026
- 2026TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasters5 Apr 2026
- 2026Catalogue Grounded Multimodal Attribution for Museum Video under Resource and Regulatory Constraints11 Mar 2026
- 2026The Confidence Gate Theorem: When Should Ranked Decision Systems Abstain?10 Mar 2026
- 2026When Alpha Breaks: Two-Level Uncertainty for Safe Deployment of Cross-Sectional Stock Rankers24 Feb 2026
- 2026Multi-Level Strategic Classification: Incentivizing Improvement through Promotion and Relegation Dynamics11 Feb 2026
- 2026Selective Prior Synchronization via SYNC Loss11 Feb 2026
- 2026Bounded-Abstention Multi-horizon Time-series Forecasting4 Feb 2026
- 2026Self-reflection in Automated Qualitative Coding: Improving Text Annotation through Secondary LLM Critique14 Jan 2026
- 2025Explicit Abstention Knobs for Predictable Reliability in Video Question Answering31 Dec 2025
- 2025Selective Conformal Risk Control14 Dec 2025
- 2025ALARM: Automated MLLM-Based Anomaly Detection in Complex-EnviRonment Monitoring with Uncertainty Quantification1 Dec 2025
- 2025Filtering instances and rejecting predictions to obtain reliable models in healthcare28 Oct 2025
- 2025To Ask or Not to Ask: Learning to Require Human Feedback9 Oct 2025
- 2025Fine-grained auxiliary learning for real-world product recommendation6 Oct 2025
- 2025Conservative Decisions with Risk Scores29 Sep 2025
- 2025Classification with Reject Option: Distribution-free Error Guarantees via Conformal Prediction26 Jun 2025
- 2025Bounded-Abstention Pairwise Learning to Rank29 May 2025
- 2025Adaptive Cumulative Mass Calibration with Conformal Prediction21 May 2025
- 2025A Connection Between Learning to Reject and Bhattacharyya Divergences8 May 2025
- 2025Regretful Decisions under Label Noise12 Apr 2025
- 2025Interpretable and Fair Mechanisms for Abstaining Classifiers24 Mar 2025
- 2025MCQA-Eval: Efficient Confidence Evaluation in NLG with Gold-Standard Correctness Labels20 Feb 2025
- 2025Moment of Untruth: Dealing with Negative Queries in Video Moment Retrieval12 Feb 2025
- 2025Reweighting Improves Conditional Risk Bounds4 Jan 2025
- 2024Classification with Conceptual Safeguards7 Nov 2024
- 2024A Novel Characterization of the Population Area Under the Risk Coverage Curve (AURC) and Rates of Finite Sample Estimators20 Oct 2024
- 2024Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systems1 Jul 2024
- 2024Stacked Confusion Reject Plots (SCORE)25 Jun 2024
- 2024A Causal Framework for Evaluating Deferring Systems29 May 2024
- 2024Rejection via Learning Density Ratios29 May 2024
- 2024Selective Classification Under Distribution Shifts8 May 2024
- 2024SCOD: From Heuristics to Theory25 Mar 2024
50 newest of 61 All 61 (JSON)
- 2025Explicit Abstention Knobs for Predictable Reliability in Video Question Answeringcited by 3
- 2025ALARM: Automated MLLM-Based Anomaly Detection in Complex-EnviRonment Monitoring with Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 2
- 2026A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisionscited by 0
- 2026A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisions7 May 2026
- 2025Explicit Abstention Knobs for Predictable Reliability in Video Question Answering31 Dec 2025
- 2025ALARM: Automated MLLM-Based Anomaly Detection in Complex-EnviRonment Monitoring with Uncertainty Quantification1 Dec 2025
- 2025To Ask or Not to Ask: Learning to Require Human Feedbackcited by 4
- 2026Aligning Language Models with Selective Predictioncited by 1
- 2026Aligning Language Models with Selective Prediction3 Jul 2026
- 2025To Ask or Not to Ask: Learning to Require Human Feedback9 Oct 2025
- 2026TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasterscited by 1
- 2026TimeSeek: Temporal Reliability of Agentic Forecasters5 Apr 2026
- 2022Is Out-of-Distribution Detection Learnable?cited by 109
- 2021Machine Learning with a Reject Option: A surveycited by 107
- 2024Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systemscited by 31
- 2023How to Fix a Broken Confidence Estimator: Evaluating Post-hoc Methods for Selective Classification with Deep Neural Networkscited by 15
- 2024A Causal Framework for Evaluating Deferring Systemscited by 13
- 2024A Novel Characterization of the Population Area Under the Risk Coverage Curve (AURC) and Rates of Finite Sample Estimatorscited by 13
- 2024Selective Classification Under Distribution Shiftscited by 12
- 2025Selective Conformal Risk Controlcited by 10
- 2024Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Predictioncited by 9
- 2025Moment of Untruth: Dealing with Negative Queries in Video Moment Retrievalcited by 9
- 2022Confident AIcited by 6
- 2023How Far Can Fairness Constraints Help Recover From Biased Data?cited by 5
12 most cited of 55 All 55 (JSON)
- 2026Target-Dependent Limits of Causal Repair: A Leading-Log Frontier in a Gaussian Model30 Sep 2026
- 2026Classification with Abstention Under Class-Conditional Error Constraints18 Sep 2026
- 2026How Many Labels Does Model Choice Need? Certificates and Budgets for Selective Prediction16 Sep 2026
- 2026TCPα: Margin-Controlled Confidence estimation for reliable Music Information Retrieval20 Aug 2026
- 2026Presentation, Not Mechanism: A Render Confound in Deprecation-Aware Memory Evaluation17 Jul 2026
- 2026Evaluating Epistemic Uncertainty: Beyond OOD Detection and Active Learning16 Jul 2026
- 2026Amplitude-Only FFN Intervention for Tool-Structured LLM Inference Method: Gated Evaluation Protocol, and Cross-Model Empirical Results13 Jul 2026
- 2026Expected Gain-based Escalation in Vertical Federated Learning30 Jun 2026
- 2026When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generation27 Jun 2026
- 2026Auditable Decision Models with Learned Abstention and Real-Time Steering26 May 2026
- 2026ECUASn: A family of metrics for principled evaluation of uncertainty-augmented systems19 May 2026
- 2026Density-Ratio Losses for Post-Hoc Learning to Defer19 May 2026
12 newest of 55 All 55 (JSON)