Using simulation studies to evaluate statistical methods
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Abstract (arXiv)
Simulation studies are computer experiments that involve creating data by pseudorandom sampling. The key strength of simulation studies is the ability to understand the behaviour of statistical methods because some 'truth' (usually some parameter/s of interest) is known from the process of generating the data. This allows us to consider properties of methods, such as bias. While widely used, simulation studies are often poorly designed, analysed and reported. This tutorial outlines the rationale for using simulation studies and offers guidance for design, execution, analysis, reporting and presentation. In particular, this tutorial provides: a structured approach for planning and reporting simulation studies, which involves defining aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods and performance measures ('ADEMP'); coherent terminology for simulation studies; guidance on coding simulation studies; a critical discussion of key performance measures and their estimation; guidance on structuring tabular and graphical presentation of results; and new graphical presentations. With a view to describing recent practice, we review 100 articles taken from Volume 34 of Statistics in Medicine that included at least one simulation study and identify areas for improvement.
Key facts. Cited by 49 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 8 Dec 2017.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 2; 2022: 4; 2023: 6; 2024: 10; 2025: 5; 2026: 22.
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- 2021Shrinkage Bayesian Causal Forests for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Estimationcited by 7
- 2022Linguistically inspired roadmap for building biologically reliable protein language modelscited by 7
- 2022On the role of benchmarking data sets and simulations in method comparison studiescited by 7
- 2024Thematic Analysis with Open-Source Generative AI and Machine Learning: A New Method for Inductive Qualitative Codebook Developmentcited by 6
- 2026Can We Trust Item Response Theory for AI Evaluation?cited by 4
- 2023A Fast Bootstrap Algorithm for Causal Inference with Large Datacited by 3
- 2023SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environmentcited by 3
- 2024Deep Nonparametric Conditional Independence Tests for Imagescited by 3
- 2026Generalized Prediction-Powered Inference, with Application to Binary Classifier Evaluationcited by 3
- 2023Opening the random forest black box by the analysis of the mutual impact of featurescited by 1
- 2023An engine to simulate insurance fraud network datacited by 1
- 2024Adapting tree-based multiple imputation methods for multi-level data? A simulation studycited by 1
37 more
- 2024A flexible Bayesian g-formula for causal survival analyses with time-dependent confoundingcited by 1
- 2024Understanding overfitting in random forest for probability estimation: a visualization and simulation studycited by 1
- 2024Performance of Cross-Validated Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimationcited by 1
- 2025Aligning NLP Models with Target Population Perspectives using PAIR: Population-Aligned Instance Replicationcited by 1
- 2025Comparison of the Cox proportional hazards model and Random Survival Forest algorithm for predicting patient-specific survival probabilities in clinical trial datacited by 1
- 2025Gradient Boosting for Spatial Regression Models with Autoregressive Disturbancescited by 1
- 2026Analyzing Error Sources in Global Feature Effect Estimationcited by 1
- 2026The Scaling Law of Evaluation Failure: Why Simple Averaging Collapses Under Data Sparsity and Item Difficulty Gaps, and How Item Response Theory Recovers Ground Truth Across Domainscited by 1
- 2026In-Context Learning for the Imputation of Public Opinion Data with Large Language Modelscited by 1
- 2026Embedded Conditional Independence Tests for Large Language Model Generated Text with an Application to German Parliament Speechescited by 1
- 2026Three Routes to One Answer: Reconciling AIPW, TMLE, and Double Machine Learning for Applied Researcherscited by 1
- 2021Leveraging Historical Data for High-Dimensional Regression Adjustment, a Composite Covariate Approachcited by 0
- 2022Hybrid Feature- and Similarity-Based Models for Joint Prediction and Interpretationcited by 0
- 2022DagSim: Combining DAG-based model structure with unconstrained data types and relations for flexible, transparent, and modularized data simulationcited by 0
- 2023Evaluation of network-guided random forest for disease gene discoverycited by 0
- 2023Effect of hyperparameters on variable selection in random forestscited by 0
- 2024Predictive Analytics of Varieties of Potatoescited by 0
- 2024High-dimensional multiple imputation (HDMI) for partially observed confounders including natural language processing-derived auxiliary covariatescited by 0
- 2024A simulation study of cluster search algorithms in data set generated by Gaussian mixture modelscited by 0
- 2024G-computation for increasing performances of clinical trials with individual randomization and binary responsecited by 0
- 2025Causal Effect Estimation with TMLE: Handling Missing Data and Near-Violations of Positivitycited by 0
- 2025Exploratory Mean-Variance with Jumps: An Equilibrium Approachcited by 0
- 2026Statistical inference after variable selection in Cox models: A simulation studycited by 0
- 2026Fast Uncertainty Quantification for Kernel-Based Estimators in Large-Scale Causal Inferencecited by 0
- 2026Gradient Boosting for Spatial Panel Models with Random and Fixed Effectscited by 0
- 2026Adaptive Gaussian Process Search for Simulation-Based Sample Size Estimation in Clinical Prediction Models: Validation of the pmsims R Packagecited by 0
- 2026Predicting missing values: A good idea?cited by 0
- 2026Agentic Repository Mining: A Multi-Task Evaluationcited by 0
- 2026When Discourse Pressures Conflict: Information Structure in Vision-Language Model Outputscited by 0
- 2026An analysis of machine learning approaches for enhancing decision-making in complex discrete choice taskscited by 0
- 2026Neural ODE enhanced linear mixed effect models for estimating complex association patterns of time-varying covariates with the marker trajectorycited by 0
- 2026Rollcast: Proper-Score Gated Rolling Anchors for Adaptive Probabilistic Time-Series Forecastingcited by 0
- 2026When AI Generates Covariates: Causal Typing and Estimand Drift in Sequential Experimentscited by 0
- 2026Information Set Emulation: Causal Certificates for AI Derived EHR Featurescited by 0
- 2026When 10,000 Windows Are Not 10,000 Tests: Auditing Statistical Confidence in Sliding-Window Time-Series Classificationcited by 0
- 2026When Sample-Splitting Choices Matter in TMLE and AIPW: Cross-Fitting, Targeting, and Repetitioncited by 0
- 2026ndscape: a structural map of the nested dichotomy spacecited by 0
- 2026ndscape: a structural map of the nested dichotomy space13 Oct 2026
- 2026When Sample-Splitting Choices Matter in TMLE and AIPW: Cross-Fitting, Targeting, and Repetition12 Oct 2026
- 2026When 10,000 Windows Are Not 10,000 Tests: Auditing Statistical Confidence in Sliding-Window Time-Series Classification25 Sep 2026
- 2026Information Set Emulation: Causal Certificates for AI Derived EHR Features15 Sep 2026
- 2026When AI Generates Covariates: Causal Typing and Estimand Drift in Sequential Experiments15 Sep 2026
- 2026Rollcast: Proper-Score Gated Rolling Anchors for Adaptive Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting3 Sep 2026
- 2026Embedded Conditional Independence Tests for Large Language Model Generated Text with an Application to German Parliament Speeches1 Sep 2026
- 2026Neural ODE enhanced linear mixed effect models for estimating complex association patterns of time-varying covariates with the marker trajectory30 Aug 2026
- 2026Three Routes to One Answer: Reconciling AIPW, TMLE, and Double Machine Learning for Applied Researchers8 Aug 2026
- 2026An analysis of machine learning approaches for enhancing decision-making in complex discrete choice tasks30 Jul 2026
- 2026Can We Trust Item Response Theory for AI Evaluation?16 Jul 2026
- 2026In-Context Learning for the Imputation of Public Opinion Data with Large Language Models8 Jun 2026
37 more
- 2026When Discourse Pressures Conflict: Information Structure in Vision-Language Model Outputs27 May 2026
- 2026The Scaling Law of Evaluation Failure: Why Simple Averaging Collapses Under Data Sparsity and Item Difficulty Gaps, and How Item Response Theory Recovers Ground Truth Across Domains11 May 2026
- 2026Agentic Repository Mining: A Multi-Task Evaluation6 May 2026
- 2026Predicting missing values: A good idea?5 May 2026
- 2026Adaptive Gaussian Process Search for Simulation-Based Sample Size Estimation in Clinical Prediction Models: Validation of the pmsims R Package24 Mar 2026
- 2026Analyzing Error Sources in Global Feature Effect Estimation16 Mar 2026
- 2026Gradient Boosting for Spatial Panel Models with Random and Fixed Effects15 Mar 2026
- 2026Fast Uncertainty Quantification for Kernel-Based Estimators in Large-Scale Causal Inference14 Mar 2026
- 2026Generalized Prediction-Powered Inference, with Application to Binary Classifier Evaluation10 Feb 2026
- 2026Statistical inference after variable selection in Cox models: A simulation study7 Feb 2026
- 2025Exploratory Mean-Variance with Jumps: An Equilibrium Approach10 Dec 2025
- 2025Causal Effect Estimation with TMLE: Handling Missing Data and Near-Violations of Positivity25 Oct 2025
- 2025Gradient Boosting for Spatial Regression Models with Autoregressive Disturbances16 Jun 2025
- 2025Comparison of the Cox proportional hazards model and Random Survival Forest algorithm for predicting patient-specific survival probabilities in clinical trial data5 Feb 2025
- 2025Aligning NLP Models with Target Population Perspectives using PAIR: Population-Aligned Instance Replication12 Jan 2025
- 2024G-computation for increasing performances of clinical trials with individual randomization and binary response15 Nov 2024
- 2024Deep Nonparametric Conditional Independence Tests for Images9 Nov 2024
- 2024Thematic Analysis with Open-Source Generative AI and Machine Learning: A New Method for Inductive Qualitative Codebook Development28 Sep 2024
- 2024Performance of Cross-Validated Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation17 Sep 2024
- 2024A simulation study of cluster search algorithms in data set generated by Gaussian mixture models27 Jul 2024
- 2024High-dimensional multiple imputation (HDMI) for partially observed confounders including natural language processing-derived auxiliary covariates17 May 2024
- 2024Predictive Analytics of Varieties of Potatoes4 Apr 2024
- 2024Understanding overfitting in random forest for probability estimation: a visualization and simulation study28 Feb 2024
- 2024A flexible Bayesian g-formula for causal survival analyses with time-dependent confounding4 Feb 2024
- 2024Adapting tree-based multiple imputation methods for multi-level data? A simulation study25 Jan 2024
- 2023SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment1 Dec 2023
- 2023Effect of hyperparameters on variable selection in random forests13 Sep 2023
- 2023An engine to simulate insurance fraud network data21 Aug 2023
- 2023Evaluation of network-guided random forest for disease gene discovery2 Aug 2023
- 2023Opening the random forest black box by the analysis of the mutual impact of features5 Apr 2023
- 2023A Fast Bootstrap Algorithm for Causal Inference with Large Data6 Feb 2023
- 2022On the role of benchmarking data sets and simulations in method comparison studies2 Aug 2022
- 2022Linguistically inspired roadmap for building biologically reliable protein language models3 Jul 2022
- 2022DagSim: Combining DAG-based model structure with unconstrained data types and relations for flexible, transparent, and modularized data simulation6 May 2022
- 2022Hybrid Feature- and Similarity-Based Models for Joint Prediction and Interpretation12 Apr 2022
- 2021Leveraging Historical Data for High-Dimensional Regression Adjustment, a Composite Covariate Approach26 Mar 2021
- 2021Shrinkage Bayesian Causal Forests for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Estimation12 Feb 2021
- 2026Agentic Repository Mining: A Multi-Task Evaluationcited by 0
- 2026Agentic Repository Mining: A Multi-Task Evaluation6 May 2026
- 2021Shrinkage Bayesian Causal Forests for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Estimationcited by 7
- 2022Linguistically inspired roadmap for building biologically reliable protein language modelscited by 7
- 2022On the role of benchmarking data sets and simulations in method comparison studiescited by 7
- 2024Thematic Analysis with Open-Source Generative AI and Machine Learning: A New Method for Inductive Qualitative Codebook Developmentcited by 6
- 2026Can We Trust Item Response Theory for AI Evaluation?cited by 4
- 2023A Fast Bootstrap Algorithm for Causal Inference with Large Datacited by 3
- 2023SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environmentcited by 3
- 2024Deep Nonparametric Conditional Independence Tests for Imagescited by 3
- 2026Generalized Prediction-Powered Inference, with Application to Binary Classifier Evaluationcited by 3
- 2023Opening the random forest black box by the analysis of the mutual impact of featurescited by 1
- 2023An engine to simulate insurance fraud network datacited by 1
- 2024Adapting tree-based multiple imputation methods for multi-level data? A simulation studycited by 1
12 most cited of 46 All 46 (JSON)
- 2026ndscape: a structural map of the nested dichotomy space13 Oct 2026
- 2026When Sample-Splitting Choices Matter in TMLE and AIPW: Cross-Fitting, Targeting, and Repetition12 Oct 2026
- 2026When 10,000 Windows Are Not 10,000 Tests: Auditing Statistical Confidence in Sliding-Window Time-Series Classification25 Sep 2026
- 2026Information Set Emulation: Causal Certificates for AI Derived EHR Features15 Sep 2026
- 2026When AI Generates Covariates: Causal Typing and Estimand Drift in Sequential Experiments15 Sep 2026
- 2026Rollcast: Proper-Score Gated Rolling Anchors for Adaptive Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting3 Sep 2026
- 2026Embedded Conditional Independence Tests for Large Language Model Generated Text with an Application to German Parliament Speeches1 Sep 2026
- 2026Neural ODE enhanced linear mixed effect models for estimating complex association patterns of time-varying covariates with the marker trajectory30 Aug 2026
- 2026Three Routes to One Answer: Reconciling AIPW, TMLE, and Double Machine Learning for Applied Researchers8 Aug 2026
- 2026An analysis of machine learning approaches for enhancing decision-making in complex discrete choice tasks30 Jul 2026
- 2026Can We Trust Item Response Theory for AI Evaluation?16 Jul 2026
- 2026In-Context Learning for the Imputation of Public Opinion Data with Large Language Models8 Jun 2026
12 newest of 46 All 46 (JSON)