In-Context Learning for the Imputation of Public Opinion Data with Large Language Models
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models have been widely evaluated as simulators of individual survey responses. In practice, however, fully unobserved responses are rare; the dominant problem is partial non-response. Imputation aims to restore the overall structure of a survey dataset by filling in these missing values. It has its own well-defined evaluation criteria and differs fundamentally from prediction. We propose to impute missing survey data through in-context learning (ICL). We systematically evaluate ICL design choices across different missingness mechanisms (MCAR, MAR, MNAR) on 150 opinion variables spanning 15 waves of the American Trends Panel. Compared to well-established statistical methods for data imputation like MICE PMM, our ICL approach consistently reduces absolute error across all missingness mechanisms, with the largest gains under non-random missingness (MNAR). Notably, the best-performing specification (gpt-oss-120b with 100 in-context examples) achieves near-nominal aggregate coverage (approaching the 95% level) with confidence intervals two to five times narrower than MICE PMM. We publish a Python package with an sklearn-like API to enable easy deployment of our method using local and proprietary LLMs.
Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 16 of its 42 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 Jun 2026.
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16 of 42 references.
References · 16
- 2025gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Cardcited by 1,258
- 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 946
- 2023Whose Opinions Do Language Models Reflect?cited by 759
- 2022Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samplescited by 737
- 2025GLM-4.5: Agentic, Reasoning, and Coding (ARC) Foundation Modelscited by 446
- 2025Language Model Fine-Tuning on Scaled Survey Data for Predicting Distributions of Public Opinionscited by 64
- 2024Benchmarking Distributional Alignment of Large Language Modelscited by 58
- 2025Specializing Large Language Models to Simulate Survey Response Distributions for Global Populationscited by 50
- 2025SimBench: Benchmarking the Ability of Large Language Models to Simulate Human Behaviorscited by 48
- 2017Using simulation studies to evaluate statistical methodscited by 47
- 2023AI-Augmented Surveys: Leveraging Large Language Models and Surveys for Opinion Predictioncited by 46
- 2020Fast and Eager k-Medoids Clustering: O(k) Runtime Improvement of the PAM, CLARA, and CLARANS Algorithmscited by 35
4 more
- 2025Valid Survey Simulations with Limited Human Data: The Roles of Prompting, Fine-Tuning, and Rectificationcited by 17
- 2025Valid Inference with Imperfect Synthetic Datacited by 7
- 2025Large Language Models as Virtual Survey Respondents: Evaluating Sociodemographic Response Generationcited by 7
- 2026LLMs as Implicit Imputers: Uncertainty Should Scale with Missing Informationcited by 1
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