Right Order, Wrong Scale: Auditing LLM Judges for Occupational AI Measurement
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Abstract (arXiv)
LLM judges are increasingly used to assess whether AI outputs meet workplace requirements, but agreement on response rankings does not establish agreement on acceptance rates or occupational aggregates. We introduce O*NET-BENCH, an audit suite derived from an existing survey of 45,796 worker ratings, and evaluate 33 pre-existing judge configurations across six model families on 4,501 test ratings. Twenty-five configurations achieve tie-aware pair accuracy of at least 0.60, although a train-fitted response-only TF-IDF baseline nearly matches the strongest judge. Despite this ordering agreement, judges estimate that 3.0%-97.9% of responses are acceptable, compared with 61.1% for occupation-matched workers. In one fine-tuned lineage, changing from pointwise scoring to a bundled few-shot/listwise protocol improves response ordering while reducing agreement with worker means at the task and occupation levels; this reversal replicates on a task- and worker-disjoint validation split under prespecified criteria. Cross-validated calibration largely removes mean bias, but calibrated scores explain at most 8.5% of individual worker-rating variance. Prediction-assisted estimation yields at most small precision gains at the studied label budgets. These results show that ranking agreement alone is insufficient for occupational measurement. Judges should be validated against the acceptance rates and aggregates their scores will be used to estimate.
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References · 24
- 2021LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Modelscited by 14,380
- 2023Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arenacited by 8,626
- 2023G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignmentcited by 2,276
- 2024Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preferencecited by 1,184
- 2024LLM Evaluators Recognize and Favor Their Own Generationscited by 686
- 2024RewardBench: Evaluating Reward Models for Language Modelingcited by 499
- 2024Prometheus 2: An Open Source Language Model Specialized in Evaluating Other Language Modelscited by 446
- 2023JudgeLM: Fine-tuned Large Language Models are Scalable Judgescited by 367
- 2024Judging the Judges: A Systematic Study of Position Bias in LLM-as-a-Judgecited by 269
- 2024LLMs instead of Human Judges? A Large Scale Empirical Study across 20 NLP Evaluation Taskscited by 243
- 2023Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 220
- 2025GDPval: Evaluating AI Model Performance on Real-World Economically Valuable Taskscited by 158
12 more
- 2025Position: Evaluating Generative AI Systems Is a Social Science Measurement Challengecited by 63
- 2024Limits to scalable evaluation at the frontier: LLM as Judge won't beat twice the datacited by 51
- 2025Future of Work with AI Agents: Auditing Automation and Augmentation Potential across the U.S. Workforcecited by 38
- 2024Beyond correlation: The Impact of Human Uncertainty in Measuring the Effectiveness of Automatic Evaluation and LLM-as-a-Judgecited by 31
- 2024JuStRank: Benchmarking LLM Judges for System Rankingcited by 29
- 2025Anthropic Economic Index report: Uneven geographic and enterprise AI adoptioncited by 26
- 2025Validating LLM-as-a-Judge Systems under Rating Indeterminacycited by 25
- 2025ProfBench: Multi-Domain Rubrics requiring Professional Knowledge to Answer and Judgecited by 24
- 2026When the Judge Changes, So Does the Measurement: Auditing LLM-as-Judge Reliabilitycited by 8
- 2026Agreement Metrics for LLM-as-Judge Evaluation: What to Report and Whycited by 6
- 2024LINKAGE: Listwise Ranking among Varied-Quality References for Non-Factoid QA Evaluation via LLMscited by 5
- 2026Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Taskscited by 1
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