mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Not All Errors Matter: Decision-Relevant Prediction Error Predicts Planning Quality

arXiv 2609.32322 ↗First posted 26 Sep 2026cs.LGcited by 0

On the map: World models → World models for language agents also fits: Latent dynamics models and model-based RL

Abstract (arXiv)

World models are typically trained and evaluated by prediction error, assuming that more accurate predictions lead to better decisions. We show that this assumption can fail because models with similar total error can differ substantially in planning performance when their errors occur on different state dimensions. We introduce Decision-Relevant Prediction Error (DRPE), which measures prediction error on the state dimensions that affect decisions. We also develop an iso-error evaluation protocol that varies error allocation while keeping total error fixed. In a factored gridworld with known state relevance and a standardized planner, we evaluate 55 controlled and learned models across different error levels and allocations. Total prediction error is weakly related to planning success (Spearman ρ=-0.25), whereas DRPE is strongly predictive (ρ=-0.84; -0.98 within the controlled family). Models with only a 1% difference in total error can differ by 60 percentage points in planning success (97% vs 37%). The relevant error also depends on the task, with model rankings reversing across tasks at the same total error. Deeper imagination further amplifies decision-relevant errors, while learned models exhibit systematic bias on rare but decision-critical events. We formalize sufficient conditions under which DRPE correctly ranks models and total prediction error cannot.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Placed in World models for language agents, one of 11 directions in World models. Builds on 36 of its 45 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Sep 2026.

Builds on

36 of 45 references.

Closest ancestors · 5

Same direction, newest first

  1. 2026Hallucination in World Models is Predictable and Preventable25 Jun
  2. 2024Is Your LLM Secretly a World Model of the Internet? Model-Based Planning for Web Agents10 Nov
  3. 2024Web Agents with World Models: Learning and Leveraging Environment Dynamics in Web Navigation17 Oct
  4. 2023Reasoning with Language Model is Planning with World Model24 May
  5. 2023Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior7 Apr

Other references · 31

  1. 2022Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Modelscited by 12,302
  2. 2022ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Modelscited by 8,355
  3. 2023Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Modelscited by 3,155
  4. 2019Dream to Control: Learning Behaviors by Latent Imaginationcited by 1,598
  5. 2019Mastering Atari, Go, Chess and Shogi by Planning with a Learned Modelcited by 1,327
  6. 2018Learning Latent Dynamics for Planning from Pixelscited by 1,221
  7. 2018Towards Accurate Generative Models of Video: A New Metric & Challengescited by 1,204
  8. 2023Self-Supervised Learning from Images with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecturecited by 982
  9. 2018DeepMind Control Suitecited by 935
  10. 2019When to Trust Your Model: Model-Based Policy Optimizationcited by 753
  11. 2018Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Modelscited by 748
  12. 2024Genie: Generative Interactive Environmentscited by 706
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  1. 2020MOPO: Model-based Offline Policy Optimizationcited by 630
  2. 2020MOReL : Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learningcited by 582
  3. 2024Revisiting Feature Prediction for Learning Visual Representations from Videocited by 490
  4. 2023Learning Interactive Real-World Simulatorscited by 440
  5. 2020Learning Invariant Representations for Reinforcement Learning without Reconstructioncited by 424
  6. 2022DayDreamer: World Models for Physical Robot Learningcited by 372
  7. 2021Mastering Atari Games with Limited Datacited by 235
  8. 2019DeepMDP: Learning Continuous Latent Space Models for Representation Learningcited by 204
  9. 2024How Far is Video Generation from World Model: A Physical Law Perspectivecited by 204
  10. 2019Scalable methods for computing state similarity in deterministic Markov Decision Processescited by 133
  11. 2017Value Prediction Networkcited by 117
  12. 2020Approximate information state for approximate planning and reinforcement learning in partially observed systemscited by 67
  13. 2022Deciding What to Model: Value-Equivalent Sampling for Reinforcement Learningcited by 19
  14. 2026Learning Invariant Visual Representations for Planning with Joint-Embedding Predictive World Modelscited by 11
  15. 2026How Should World Models Be Evaluated for Embodied Decision-Making? A Decision-Making-Centric Positioncited by 9
  16. 2023What model does MuZero learn?cited by 7
  17. 2020DeepKoCo: Efficient latent planning with a task-relevant Koopman representationcited by 5
  18. 2026Imperfect World Models are Exploitablecited by 4
  19. 2025Calibrated Value-Aware Model Learning with Probabilistic Environment Modelscited by 2

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