Reference-Based Analysis of Coherence and Diversity in Open-Ended Text Generation

Evaluating open-ended text generation involves understanding how different properties of a continuation relate to its perceived quality. We present a reference-based framework for examining coherence and diversity through three perspectives: aligning their evolution with human trajectories, comparing their summaries with a human continuation of the same prompt, and estimating their likelihood under a human reference distribution. Experiments with human quality ratings suggest that diversity-based alignment and mean-based comparisons capture quality-related variation, although the comparisons do not establish a predictive advantage for temporal alignment over simpler baselines. Reference likelihood also shows positive associations with ratings, with results varying across reference configurations and scoring horizons. Together, these analyses provide a structured way to examine how measured coherence and diversity relate to human judgments, while distinguishing similarity to human references from quality itself. Code and analysis resources are available at https://github.com/EstebanGarces/likely_human.