Breaking the Likelihood Trap: Variance-Calibrated Modulation for Large Language Model Decoding

In open-ended generation, LLMs frequently fall into the "likelihood trap", characterized by repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness, resulting in a discrepancy between machine-generated and human-written text. While post-hoc tail truncation (e.g., Top-p, Min-p) avoids sampling from the unreliable tail, it can misalign generation with human lexical preferences by over-sampling from the uncalibrated head; fixed scalar repetition penalties, in turn, ignore how the scale of the logit distribution varies across inference steps, which can disrupt semantic coherence. To address both shortcomings, we propose Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM), a training-free pre-decoding intervention. VCM directly reshapes the probability distribution prior to truncation via two dynamic mechanisms: (1) Contextual Searchlight via PMI, which naturally suppresses global stopwords and elevates context-evoked tokens, and (2) Adaptive Self-Debiasing, which utilizes real-time logit standard deviation to provide scale-invariant penalization. In experiments across open-ended generation, factual QA, and mathematical reasoning, we show that VCM consistently mitigates the likelihood trap. With negligible computational overhead, VCM integrates with existing decoding strategies, improving diversity and coherence and, particularly at higher decoding temperatures, reasoning accuracy. Our code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/AetherDing/VCM